July Discobs 2022

[Eskimo Joe]

Nice line developing along I-95. Here's my view from the west.

 

[DanTheMan]

[nj2va]

66/clear. Had some rain come through earlier (at deep creek for the weekend). 

[toolsheds]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice line developing along I-95. Here's my view from the west.

 

Right down the street from me.  Were you around when the Cell formed and dropped the big Fat drops for about 2 minutes then grew as it went east? 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

Right down the street from me.  Were you around when the Cell formed and dropped the big Fat drops for about 2 minutes then grew as it went east? 

Yes. Was working a call in Rescue 1 during that.

[CAPE]

Early next week could be interesting depending on the exact location of the stalled front that will lie to our south. 

Snippet from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly-

Sunday night into Monday...The surface high weakens and a low and mid level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. As this happens, the front to our south should begin to slide northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north the front will get remains uncertain, but some models have the front as far north as southern Delmarva by late Sunday night. This has implications for our region because the pattern has several similarities to a Maddox heavy rain frontal event. In these types of patterns, there is a risk for heavy rain on the north side of a E-W slow moving front. Winds aloft are nearly parallel to the front and model soundings depict very high precipitable water values (near the 90th percentile for early August) and deep warm cloud layers. If the front does get as far north as southern Delmarva, then heavy rain could be a concern for northern Delmarva and S Jersey. I added a mention of heavy rain into the forecast, but have held off on any flood watch considerations as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front will be.

[Herb@MAWS]

Had a 10-min downpour Thursday afternoon with the pop-up cell that formed between Clarksburg and Germantown .... and then moved east.  Had 1/10" rain in about 10 minutes.  First good downpour in weeks.

BWI reached 95.  92.9 IMBY Thursday.

[09-10 analogy]

10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Thought it was an interesting sky with the shelf and the sun behind, but under, the storm.  Quick 0.30”

Nice one! 

I meant to get a pic of the Cb that passed over yesterday afternoon; not too tall, but quite striking: the "bubbly effect" was outlined very nicely against the late afternoon sun in the west. 

Brought to mind one of my earliest weather memories: end of the season Little League, we had a picnic, a violent thunderstorm came through, we all had to take shelter, and when it was over, I remember seeing this huge Cb to the east retreating away, with not a single other cloud in the sky. 

[high risk]

One other odd aspect of the storm yesterday:   there was no lightning as the line moved through southern Howard, but it started cranking out bolts on the back side of the storm as it moved into PG.   There were numerous lightning strikes in Howard, eastern Montgomery, and western PG well after the rain had ended, including one that was way, way too close here and knocked out our power for 5 hours.

[high risk]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Early next week could be interesting depending on the exact location of the stalled front that will lie to our south. 

Snippet from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly-

Sunday night into Monday...The surface high weakens and a low and mid level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. As this happens, the front to our south should begin to slide northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north the front will get remains uncertain, but some models have the front as far north as southern Delmarva by late Sunday night. This has implications for our region because the pattern has several similarities to a Maddox heavy rain frontal event. In these types of patterns, there is a risk for heavy rain on the north side of a E-W slow moving front. Winds aloft are nearly parallel to the front and model soundings depict very high precipitable water values (near the 90th percentile for early August) and deep warm cloud layers. If the front does get as far north as southern Delmarva, then heavy rain could be a concern for northern Delmarva and S Jersey. I added a mention of heavy rain into the forecast, but have held off on any flood watch considerations as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front will be.

            This is an excellent discussion.    The GFS hasn't caught on to this threat yet, but the ECMWF and Canadian have.

[nj2va]

Pouring at the lake right now. Picked up 0.4” on the day so far. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Two storms moved through Annapolis yesterday. Both storms brought heavy downpours. Photo from just after sunset right before the heavy rain came through. 

[IronTy]

Went to the mailbox just now.  

 

 

[BlizzardNole]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

One other odd aspect of the storm yesterday:   there was no lightning as the line moved through southern Howard, but it started cranking out bolts on the back side of the storm as it moved into PG.   There were numerous lightning strikes in Howard, eastern Montgomery, and western PG well after the rain had ended, including one that was way, way too close here and knocked out our power for 5 hours.

Wow at far back from the rain some of those bolts are!  Those are the kind of strikes that kill

[Eskimo Joe]

That cluster of cells NW of RIC looks interesting.

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 00:00 utc 7/30/22.

[WeatherShak]

That cluster of cells NW of RIC looks interesting.

Short Pump about to get whacked.

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR for Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Louisa counties in VA. Hanover 911 reporting wall cloud w/ rotation near Hanover, VA.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

That’s impressive 

[weatherCCB]

Sun out here

83/75

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sure do wish we could get some rain out here in Frederick County. So dry it looks like Ireland in spring.

In July no less. Whoever heard of such a thing lol

[CAPE]

The current radar looks familiar. So does the 3k NAM simulation. Might make it 0 for the last 3 'high probability' precip events. If the HRRR is correct, might see some drizzle.

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The current radar looks familiar. So does the 3k NAM simulation. Might make it 0 for the last 3 'high probability' precip events. If the HRRR is correct, might see some drizzle.

Sum the last 10 days of sub-12hr Euro QPF for me and I’m probably near 4”. Verification? 0.1”

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sum the last 10 days of sub-12hr Euro QPF for me and I’m probably near 4”. Verification? 0.1”

Less than a tenth since the middle of last week. I think it was that Tuesday I had a miracle cell pop on my doorstep and dump an inch plus. No hint that ever occurred now. Like a desert. I can start reseeding in another week.

[North Balti Zen]

Looks like last shot for northern balt county might be around the 5-6 timeframe for something wet. 

[Rhino16]

This storm has some of the most intense lightning I’ve seen so far.

[MN Transplant]

On the edge of the cell that is popping up along 66 inside the Beltway.  Rain pulses and then stops.  

[BlizzardNole]

Whoo SE VA has been getting pounded on lately.  I've been in VA Beach for weeks like that.  One year (I think 2018) they opened the base for people to pass through as local roads had a foot of water just sitting on them.  Lots of board games that week 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Whoo SE VA has been getting pounded on lately.  I've been in VA Beach for weeks like that.  One year (I think 2018) they opened the base for people to pass through as local roads had a foot of water just sitting on them.  Lots of board games that week 

Looks like you are about to get hit