Invest 95L--40% 2 Day/40% 5 Day Development Odds

[WxWatcher007]

This morning a new invest was designated off the coast of Texas. Although it has 30% development odds currently, the guidance in recent days has picked up on some development that could allow this to become a tropical cyclone. 

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has 
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional 
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward 
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the 
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be 
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

While there is some shear evident in the area, and the system doesn't have time to rapidly develop due to proximity to land, this morning there are hints that a low level center has developed, and we do see some shallow convection attempting to fire around the center. We will need to watch and see if this LLC is durable, and if so, whether shear will be enough to inhibit tropical genesis. I'd put the odds a little higher than the current 30%, with odds increasing as long as that LLC continues to see convection firing near the center. Pressure drops don't look too impressive at the moment. 

Regardless of whether a TC comes out of this, it is likely to be a heavy rain event for parts of the Texas coast, with the Euro particularly aggressive with rainfall over the next 3-4 days.  

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I don't think there is a model that even gets this to TS strength, but with a 2011 style month long wildfires destroying thousands of homes type summer in progress, a nice little TD with 1 to 3 inches of rain on my yard and the nearby pine forests would be a good thing.

 

The strongest Euro ensemble gets 95L to 1005 mb.  That is borderline nameable.  1986, decaying June cold front produced a Cat 1 Bonnie that made landfall E of Houston, maybe get a minimal TS Bonnie sort of repeat that although nowhere near as strong.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I don't think there is a model that even gets this to TS strength, but with a 2011 style month long wildfires destroying thousands of homes type summer in progress, a nice little TD with 1 to 3 inches of rain on my yard and the nearby pine forests would be a good thing.

 

The strongest Euro ensemble gets 95L to 1005 mb.  That is borderline nameable.  1986, decaying June cold front produced a Cat 1 Bonnie that made landfall E of Houston, maybe get a minimal TS Bonnie sort of repeat that although nowhere near as strong.

Yeah low ceiling stuff here. 

[WxWatcher007]

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or 
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next 
two days.  Slow development of the low is possible, and it could 
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it 
moves inland.  Regardless of development, heavy rain will be 
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon tentatively scheduled to investigate 95L tomorrow. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I see 2 LLCs, but storms NW of the more prominent LLC are building towards the LLC.  If they get there, this could be a TD by morning.  Sooner it develops, the better the chance of being named.  I still don't see any models that would make this a hurricane.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis

[Scott747]

Behaving as expected. Modeling has backed off somewhat the last couple of days and showing more of a stretched out system with no dominant center between the lower and mid Texas coast. At least there is a 'tropical' feel between the wave action and winds/cloud cover that is bringing some relief from the heat and eventual rain across parts of the area.

[Floydbuster]

The slower motion *could* allow more time over water, but still only a moderate chance per the NHC.

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like we will have dual recon missions this afternoon. Recon en route to Invest 95L.

There is much more convection so far today and it looks like the environment is moistening, but it's unclear if there's enough organization with shear still present. 

[wthrmn654]

Invest in gulf.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

40% is generous.  Its a mess.  SW shear is not letting up.

 

Edit to add recon data.  Still a mess.

[WxWatcher007]

Underperforming areas of interest across the Atlantic. 95L has a LLC but no organization. PTC Two has some organization but no LLC.

Early season slop for all  

[WxWatcher007]

Running out of time.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and 
thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the 
southern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization. 
The disturbance is forecast to turn northward and move slowly inland 
over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system 
is possible while the low remains over water and it could still 
become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. 
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along 
portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance 
this afternoon, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.