forkyfork Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 56 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr is about to get its 7th day in a row of 90+ 90 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS is beginning to show the SE Ridge/WAR pattern developing in mid to late July. So that’s probably when places like NYC and LGA see their first heatwave. The Euro has a classic endless summer pattern from August into October. Yeah, the Euro has enhanced probabilities for Gulf and East Coast landfalls. I am skeptical about this look though The Euro missed the blocking, the western Atlantic is much cooler than last year. There's likely going to be a feedback loop with the intensifying drought out west. The Euro is just applying Nina climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 I don't know if this is going to happen, nobody does. But, it is easier and easier to visualize how it might happen. And you start out with a frontal system getting stuck on or just west of the eastern seaboard around July 16/17 time-frame. Western Atlantic Ridge retrograding and eventually you come around to this look and we're talking about weather that is the opposite of what the last two days were like. Could be a wet and stormy transition to more sustained heat and humidity. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 And here it goes, transition time: WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: ewr is about to get its 7th day in a row of 90+ Newark, Harrison, Philly and SMQ are the only areas to have a heatwave away from the onshore flow. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 90 64 2022-06-30 92 68 2022-07-01 99 71 2022-07-02 96 79 2022-07-03 93 77 2022-07-04 91 64 Harrison’s days are posted a day later than they should be for some reason. The 97° was on the 1st and so on. Data for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 2022-06-30 88 67 2022-07-01 90 70 2022-07-02 97 78 2022-07-03 93 75 2022-07-04 90 64 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 87 54 2022-06-30 90 56 2022-07-01 95 59 2022-07-02 91 71 2022-07-03 89 59 2022-07-04 87 52 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 88 64 2022-06-30 91 70 2022-07-01 94 73 2022-07-02 94 75 2022-07-03 91 72 2022-07-04 88 68 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 86 66 2022-06-30 88 71 2022-07-01 95 75 2022-07-02 91 77 2022-07-03 88 74 2022-07-04 87 68 Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 81 60 2022-06-30 84 64 2022-07-01 83 67 2022-07-02 84 72 2022-07-03 85 66 2022-07-04 82 61 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 85 53 2022-06-30 86 57 2022-07-01 94 60 2022-07-02 87 69 2022-07-03 85 57 2022-07-04 85 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Another 90 for me today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Rain didn't even dampen the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 harrison hit 92 today. should we do an investigation? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark of 87.3ﾟ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90ﾟ in this warming climate. Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5ﾟ lower Than the actual temperature. It's like comparing 3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35* In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 High for the day was 91 here. Current temp 82/DP 66/RH 60% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, binbisso said: With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark of 87.3ﾟ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90ﾟ in this warming climate. Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5ﾟ lower Than the actual temperature. It's like comparing 3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35* In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 92 imby today...82 now...Newark Firehouse on Hillside ave was only 86 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain didn't even dampen the ground thats been the theme in my area for a while now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, binbisso said: With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark of 87.3ﾟ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90ﾟ in this warming climate. Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5ﾟ lower Than the actual temperature. It's like comparing 3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35* In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 95+ for 3 days should be the criteria In this climate 88-92F is basically the norm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: 95+ for 3 days should be the criteria In this climate 88-92F is basically the norm Not just 95ﾟ but with dew points in the mid sixties or higher. 95*/50 Is not hot and a great summer day. I'll take that over 80ﾟ/72dp any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Bluewave and Snowman 19, If this nina is coupled with the atmosphere, Where has the WAR been for the last 6 weeks or so and No sign of it showing up in the next 2 weeks? We have had nina' act like nino's and vice-versa the last several years. I'm skeptical that our sensible weather will follow enso going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain didn't even dampen the ground It is bone dry out there. The ground is parched. Hopefully the potential rain for thursday night and friday will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Here comes the next round of La Niña strengthening. This trade wind burst is going to be followed by persistent easterlies and trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and significant ENSO region cooling in the coming months. The persistence of this multi-year Niña event is crazy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 33 minutes ago, binbisso said: With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark of 87.3ﾟ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90ﾟ in this warming climate. Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5ﾟ lower Than the actual temperature. It's like comparing 3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35* In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. i agree that we should update heat wave criteria in this rapidly warming climate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Yeah our average high temp during the middle of summer gets to about 86° or so, so 90° really isn't that big a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 sun sets today at 8:30 pm when it was 8:31 for almost 2 weeks .wont be to long before it gets dark early... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 89° high on the Vantage today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: sun sets today at 8:30 pm when it was 8:31 for almost 2 weeks .wont be to long before it gets dark early... Sun angle becoming lower, won't be long now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1975 oni is like this year...1956, 1975, and 2000 were second year la ninas going on a third...all were cool summers... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: Another point to make is that even though we have entered into a strong -PDO cycle, we still have yet to see any cooling effect on global temps. Despite the hypothesis by some that global temps would drop with a -PDO, they haven’t so far…..at all, in fact the warming continues despite the -PDO. IMO this proves something else is definitely going on (AGW?). Since the 15-16 super El Niño the already impressive warming has accelerated even more. Would like to get your thoughts and @donsutherland1thoughts on this? AGW is leading to an increased incidence of marine heatwaves. In the past, the La Niña would have a much larger cooling effect than today. Today, the marine heatwaves offset some of La Niña's cooling influence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. However, unsettled weather will likely return for Thursday and Friday. Showers and thundershowers will be likely, along with cooler temperatures. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The newest EPS weeklies suggest that a sustained period of above normal temperatures could develop after mid-July. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +8.62. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.804 today. On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.460 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.195 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: It is bone dry out there. The ground is parched. Hopefully the potential rain for thursday night and friday will work out. Dry begets dry The mid range forecasts have been awful. I dont see why that would change for a sketchy event on thursday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 6 hours ago, binbisso said: With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark of 87.3ﾟ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90ﾟ in this warming climate. Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5ﾟ lower Than the actual temperature. It's like comparing 3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35* In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. You were fine and I was about to agree until your dew point comment. But yea def 95+ for true heatwave in the more urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 7/5 EWR: 91 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 NYC: 87 BLM: 86 TTN: 86 ACY: 84 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm.. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Unsettled weather will develop for tomorrow and Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.7°; 15-Year: 88.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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