July 2022

[Poker2015]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

All total yesterday was .90".   .74 in the morning, .16 in the afternoon.

Show off!! I only got .59"

[SACRUS]

Up to 80 / 69 0.09 in the bucket and hoping for more later today.  Clouds in the way of additonal 90s, could be close in the warm spots.  Some storms and rain chances later this evening and perhaps overnight.  The weekend looks marvelous, warm less humid and again the drier / warmer spots should make it near or to 90 otherwise mid/upper 80s elsewhere.  Warm front coming through on Monday could see more clouds and storm chances but nothing widespread as of now.  Beyond there The Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west again and merges with the Rockies and Plain ridge by the middle of next week Wed (8/3).  Overall warm to hot pattern and humid with bursts of strong heat into the end of next week and beyond .   Dog days ahead.

 

Euro blasts 820 temps >18c by Thu (8/4)and near or >20c by next weekend Fri (8/5) - Sat (8/6) and Sun (8/7)

[SACRUS]

Clouds will likely hinder more 90s

 

[bluewave]

80° Julys used to only be common around DC before 2010. Now they regularly extend up to NYC Metro. One of these years Hartford will have their first 80° July. They came very close in 2020.

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Mean Avg Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	82.8
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	81.8
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	81.1

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
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State	Name	Station Type	Mean Avg Temperature
PA	PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	82.2
PA	NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	81.1
MD	STEVENSVILLE 2SW	COOP	81.0
NJ	SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80.8
DE	DOVER	COOP	80.5
NJ	FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	80.1
DE	GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80.0

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Baltimore MD/Washington DC NWS CWA
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State	Name	Station Type	Mean Avg Temperature
MD	ST INIGOES WEBSTER NAVAL OUTLYING FIELD	WBAN	82.3
MD	PATUXENT RIVER NAS	WBAN	81.3
VA	WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	81.2
VA	QUANTICO MCAS	WBAN	80.6
DC	NATIONAL ARBORETUM DC	COOP	80.5
MD	BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80.4
MD	REISTERSTOWN 2 NW	COOP	80.1

 

Hardford came close in 2020

 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD, CT - Month of Jul
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Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.3	0
2	2010	78.8	0
3	2016	78.7	2
4	2013	78.6	0
5	2022	77.9	3
6	2011	77.6	0
7	2019	77.3	1
8	1949	76.8	0
9	2012	76.7	0
-	2006	76.7	0
10	2018	76.6	0

[winterwx21]

I know Euro has been advertising a decent period of rain for tonight, but RGEM and HRRR give us pretty much nothing. Not getting my hopes up for anything.

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I know Euro has been advertising a decent period of rain for tonight, but RGEM and HRRR give us pretty much nothing. Not getting my hopes up for anything.

As well you shouldn't.  My expectations are very low.  The dryness is no joke at this point.  Next several days look to offer nothing and ground will continue to dry.  Tropics are shut down so we're not getting any potential help from there anytime soon.  One big SAL burst after another on top of unfavorable MJO phases.

 

[wthrmn654]

My God, gfs through August 12th has essentially no rain anywhere  maybe 0.5-0.75 in a couple spots but otherwise it looks dry! 

 

Gefs doesn't look much better either ugh...

[Rjay]

3k nam looks ok for some rain.   Hrr has some rain. 

[bluewave]

The tropics probably won’t start to become more active until the mid-lat dry air intrusions relax.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Some more breaks in the clouds and up to 86 here.

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

3k nam looks ok for some rain.   Hrr has some rain. 

Only a little bit on the HRRR. 12z Euro that just came out cut way back on the rain. Now it has very little. Not looking good for much rain tonight, unfortunately.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Only a little bit on the HRRR. 12z Euro that just came out cut way back on the rain. Now it has very little. Not looking good for much rain tonight, unfortunately.

Yup but I'll take a little.  

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yup but I'll take a little.  

And we can hope that NAM is right about getting more. I doubt it, but you never know.

[SACRUS]

2PM

BLM: 87
ACY: 87
EWR: 86
PHL: 86
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
NYC: 84
TEB: 84
JFK: 83
ISP: 82
TTN: 82

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[Cfa]

Snuck in a 90 with ~30 min break of sunshine earlier.

Currently 85.

[bluewave]

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	14.76
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	12.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	12.06
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.43
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	11.09
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	11.04
CT	WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.01
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	10.98
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.75
CT	DARIEN 1.8 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.71
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.68
CT	STAMFORD 4.2 S	CoCoRaHS	10.62
CT	DURHAM 2.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.58
NY	QUEENS 3.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.54
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.48
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
CT	WEST HAVEN 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	10.29
CT	REDDING 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	10.25
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.24
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	10.13
CT	KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	10.07

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
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State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
CT	IVORYTON 0.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NY	LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NY	COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
NY	SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.24
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.30
NY	PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	MYSTIC 3.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.34
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.35
NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.39
CT	NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.39
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49

[Allsnow]

Euro loss most of the rain it had for tonight sigh 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	14.76
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	12.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	12.06
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.43
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	11.09
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	11.04
CT	WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.01
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	10.98
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.75
CT	DARIEN 1.8 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.71
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.68
CT	STAMFORD 4.2 S	CoCoRaHS	10.62
CT	DURHAM 2.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.58
NY	QUEENS 3.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.54
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.48
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
CT	WEST HAVEN 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	10.29
CT	REDDING 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	10.25
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.24
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	10.13
CT	KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	10.07

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NJ	MONTCLAIR 0.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.00
NY	BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
CT	IVORYTON 0.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NY	LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NY	COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
NY	SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.24
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.30
NY	PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	MYSTIC 3.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.34
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.35
NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.39
CT	NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.39
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

[doncat]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

Yeah are those cocorahs reports even reliable.

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

Yeah, absolutely not 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah are those cocorahs reports even reliable.

The Cocorahs reports are very reliable. But when you see a 0, it means the station hasn’t reported. All of the other stations that are under .50  in my area of the South Shore are correct. You can see the Montclair station hasn’t updated when you compare  it to the surrounding stations that did.  

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro loss most of the rain it had for tonight sigh 

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

even the 3 inches I had here b/w the 2 monday events dried up incredibly quick.

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

The latest run of HRRR (19z) gives us almost nothing. Not getting my hopes up with NAM being the only model that gives us decent rain, but we'll see.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

even the 3 inches I had here b/w the 2 monday events dried up incredibly quick.

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.
 

 

It will be interesting to see if there is an attribution study. If so, these events may be covered in the same study, even as they occurred days apart.

[Stormlover74]

This sad excuse for a shower just left 12 drops on my grill

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal through the remainder of the month. Afterward, there is the potential for significant heat to expand into the region during the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

Out West, Austin and San Antonio are virtually certain to record their third consecutive record warm month. Galveston is on track to record its fourth consecutive record warm month. Seattle is now experiencing its third extreme heat event in the last two years and could make a run at tying or breaking its longest stretch of 90° or above days.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +20.99.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.260 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.928 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.189 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).