Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Crazy, Upton said eastern long Island and se ct had the best chances for rain over night and reality was areas west had the best chance. Models have been horrid at time with rain chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 4 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Tears in my eyes...most rain in al.ost 2 months Hillsborough 1.23 inches Hopewell .85 inches If we can do this with the next 2 chances later today and tomorrow.... 1 hour ago, FPizz said: .75" last night, a small miracle! Loudest thunder of the season last night with the rain that fell. Euro did a good job with the placement of the heaviest rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Loudest thunder of the season last night with the rain that fell. Euro did a good job with the placement of the heaviest rain It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher tonight and tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Just now, winterwarlock said: It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher tonight and tomorrow Unfortunately, that’s convection for ya. Hopefully Friday night is more of a area wide soaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, FPizz said: .75" last night, a small miracle! That's about what I got too. When I went to bed at midnight and saw those downpours in eastern PA, I figured they'd fall apart or miss us because our luck has been so bad. Was surprised when I woke up at 2:45 and it was pouring. Glad I can finally take a break from watering the garden today. Obviously we need a lot more, but that was desperately needed rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Unfortunately, that’s convection for ya. Hopefully Friday night is more of a area wide soaking maybe for the delmarva 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: maybe for the delmarva Euro vs rgem, hrdps, nams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 2 hours ago, winterwarlock said: It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher tonight and tomorrow Yeah, I only got .48" and i'm not far from FPIZZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2022 Author Share Posted July 28, 2022 80° Julys used to be rare at our warmest urban stations. Now they are occurring frequently since 2010. Newark and Harrison are having their warmest July so far. LGA is in 6th place due to a stronger onshore flow influence this month. For our more rural locations like White Plains, it’s the 76° mark which has become very common since 2010. The 76.8° average this month is the 4th highest for July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.8 4 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 4 - 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 17 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 NYC/NE NJ upgraded to slight risk. Weird map Lol they must be confident in the HRRR/RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Current temp 91/DP 73/RH 57% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Current conditions: soaked had to toe after 10 mintues of being outside mowing..... yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- An upper level low is slowly drifting south from Ontario toward the Great Lakes. The upper level flow out ahead of the low over our area remains mostly zonal, with weak energy passing through. At the surface, a warm front and any associated isolated showers had lifted just E of the CWA. Early to mid afternoon should remain mostly dry ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a few tstms entering western/central PA should moves east and expand in coverage/intensity, reaching western portions of the CWA between 21Z-22Z per 14Z HRRR which has fairly good handle on that activity over PA. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000) and deep layer shear (35-40kt 0-6 km bulk shear) as this activity approaches will support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat damaging wind gusts. Expect two separate rounds of storms, one via the activity approaching from PA, another passing mainly across the interior this evening. Coverage looks to be scattered given H7 inversion to be overcome, possibly another developing this afternoon at H8-9 via daytime heating/WAA. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has the lower Hudson Valley and S CT under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the rest of the area in a marginal risk, but could see justification for including NE NJ and the NYC area in that as well. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most, with the NYC/NJ metro reaching the lower/mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will allow for max apparent temperatures in the upper 90s. An isolated brief apparent temperature reading of 100 is possible in the NJ Turnpike corridor of NE NJ. With just one day of apparent temperatures at or above 95 and any 100 degree apparent temperature reading being very isolated, there continues to be no heat headlines after collaboration with neighboring offices. Winds become NW-W briefly behind the cold front and drier air briefly advects into the area. After midnight the entire area should be dry. Lows will be in the mid 60s farther north and west where the cold front will work through first. Across NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island lows will be in the low to mid 70s. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Looks like we have to hope this line holds strong on the march east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Euro vs rgem, hrdps, nams Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area Mostly tomorrow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 91 here..could start new heatwave tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2022 Author Share Posted July 28, 2022 6 hours ago, Poker2015 said: Would the .48" of rain I got last night change my area back to D0? Or need alot more than that. That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area i wish it had support from literally any other model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Mostly tomorrow though Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 On 7/27/2022 at 1:27 PM, forkyfork said: these mid levels are brutal for convection The freezing level at 550mb is pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Yeah looking pretty good...fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i wish it had support from literally any other model so the 18z nam and hrrr improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Skies getting ready to open up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Omg that green lawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 HRRR and NAM3km are misses this evening and show a complete collapse for tomorrow's event just as it arrives here---say 10pm +/- an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Sky did open up here. No thunder. I don't have a rain gauge due to logistical issues with trees and such, but I'd have to estimate 0.50 - 0.75", maybe more. I'll have to see if I can find radar estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Nice storm here which has deposited 0.65” of rain. Came with a nice looking shelf cloud and a few CTG strikes to make it interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: Yeah looking pretty good...fingers crossed The storm moving into Hunterdon County is on track to hit our area. Hopefully it'll hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 I can smell the fail already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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