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July 2022


bluewave
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1 minute ago, Euripides said:

Ugh as some parts on Staten Island got three rounds per radar. Any chance you are closer to Outer Bridge crossing or southwest Staten Island at that area seemed to get the least?

I feel your pain.

near Hylan blvd and Woods of Arden ave...

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The EPS has a break in the record heat over the next week. Still generally warmer than average as the cool departures stay to our west. Not much improvement for the locations experiencing drought. Then the heat builds east from the Plains in early August again.
 

Jul 25 to Aug 1

A2C80A5A-4263-40AB-81BE-37CBD1DDC480.thumb.png.28c1377e99e077ceb6707642829f1c82.png

EC8A5FE1-0EDE-4296-85E3-17E0003AD48B.thumb.png.f4453144696b2f494d43517d40ce349e.png


Aug 1 to Aug 8


CBA676A0-5BEF-4CE6-9B6D-BE38C9FB188F.thumb.png.298e52137170f0c58f4e40d356543d43.png

 


 

 

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50 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

So close yet so far :weep:

7AFEAF59-4CDC-46EC-A401-96B2F422832B.png

You are not kidding.  I have a station at a family members house in Cherry Grove (east of RM).  There has been no rain at this station since 7/5.  The streak ended today and I recorded 0.01” with the cell pictured above.  It fizzled out on radar once it started to move east from RM.  As others have noted there seem to be a lot of places that cannot get any rain.

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It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler tomorrow. Temperatures will generally remain at or above normal through the remainder of the month.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +4.92.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today.

On July 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.504 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not a drop in Somerset 

This heat is as useless as dry/cold

We literally received about two drops on my window early afternoon and nothing else today. Sun shining now so not looking good for some relief to plants and lawns here.

I even washed my car yesterday for the first time in a month - hoping to trigger a rain event. :-)

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10 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

We literally received about two drops on my window early afternoon and nothing else today. Sun shining now so not looking good for some relief to plants and lawns here.

I even washed my car yesterday for the first time in a month - hoping to trigger a rain event. :-)

I'm going outside right now to water. Have to keep my tomatoes and other vegetable plants going in this terrible parched environment.

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Cool summers like we used to get before 2010 are a thing of the past.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks for the detailed responses to my questions about NYC, would it perhaps be correct to assume that the temperatures are more affected on the warmest days and those with light winds? I would think stronger winds might mix the air more and reduce the effect of the tree cover? 

We had a mix of days this heatwave with lighter and stronger winds. But NYC temperatures were in line with the South Shore sea  breeze sites from JFK to ISP. So the high temperature cool bias has been pretty consistent across multiple patterns. I can still remember the old heatwaves like July 1977 when Central Park was one of the warmest sites. There are many more examples like the one below between recent years and before the mid to late 90s.
 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102
NJ HARRISON COOP 102
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 97
NY SHRUB OAK COOP 96
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 96
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 96
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 96
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 96
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95
NY CENTERPORT COOP 95
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 95
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 95
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95


 

Monthly Data for July 1977 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102
NY WEST POINT COOP 101
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101
NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100
NJ CRANFORD COOP 100
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100
NY SCARSDALE COOP 100
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100
NY SUFFERN COOP 99
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99
CT DANBURY COOP 99
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99
CT GROTON COOP 99
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98
NY CARMEL COOP 98
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97
NY MINEOLA COOP 97
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95
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