SnowGoose69 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Where is the front currently located? About a Schenectady to just E of BGM to just NW of Williamsport line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc. urban heat island is enhanced by the suburb heat island and soon it will be one big island...I think using record lows from the 1800's only show how cold it could get if everything was still trees and farms...start when electronics took over?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: About a Schenectady to just E of BGM to just NW of Williamsport line Thank you! So it seems to me there is still plenty of time for a nice line of storms to form which you can see that happening currently north of BGM. Guess have to see if the line fills in south to Williamsport. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 We just had a great storm on the uws. Some of the heaviest rain rates and flash flooding since ida. Definitely a helper for the recent dry conditions. Meanwhile at home on the south shore, the typical Sumer flash drought continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 This is terrible Zarrow went down this path Smfh https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 LIE north getting drenched again. Starting to rain here with constant thunder. Torrential rain about to move in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, winterwarlock said: This is terrible Zarrow went down this path Smfh https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/ Welcome to 3 hours ago 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Radar looks like a carbon copy of last Thursday. South shore can't buy a drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Torrential rain/thunder here. Looks like some training in the same areas that got blasted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc. The difference is most notable in the daytime in the summer months, nighttime temperatures are more consistent with surrounding observations in the city. In the middle of winter, temperatures at the park are pretty consistent with surrounding areas within the city. In the late spring when trees leaf out, the difference becomes more noticeable. The argument is that the growth over the past couple of decades have made this difference more noticeable. I'm not here to debate whether this is the way it should be or not, but the environment around the park is not the same as it was 30 years ago, let alone 100 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Hail now too. I'd say maybe dime sized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Welcome to 3 hours ago Haha..yeah i just saw Its still terrible by him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I felt a drop before... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Monsoon like rains here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Lol were we removed from the watch? Watch boxes to the north and the south with a severe warmed storm plowing through the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Monsoon like rains here now My mom visited me over the weekend and was wondering how the lawns up here are all so green but at her house in Long Beach all brown. The grass down there is practically charred. Too bad yet again they’re missing good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cfa said: Lol were we removed from the watch? Watch boxes to the north and the south with a severe warmed storm plowing through the middle. We are in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I don't think one can automatically assume that the record streak of 100s isn't accurate. If there's an error, it's much less than the 2-3 degrees speculated upon in the article. The prior two rises in error could well have been a function of predominant wind direction. I added the NJ July highest temperatures below since 2010. Newark and Harrison are often close on the max like the 102° this July so far. One of those stations is usually the NJ leader. New Brunswick is usually several degrees cooler since it’s more of a suburban setting than Newark and Harrison. Much of the July variance from year to year in NJ is probably the result of differing prevailing wind patterns. The Newark site is right near the bay. So active bay breeze years like 2021 will allow Newark to run cooler than surrounding sites. The 2010 Newark disparity is a result of the thermometer malfunction at around 12:30 causing the station to miss the local highs of 106-107 a few hours later. Monthly Data for July 2022 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 HARRISON COOP 102 Newark Area ThreadEx 102 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 99 ESTELL MANOR COOP 99 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 99 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 99 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 99 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 99 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 99 Monthly Data for July 2021 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature HARRISON COOP 100 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 CANOE BROOK COOP 99 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 99 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 99 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 98 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 98 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 97 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 Monthly Data for July 2020 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 99 MARGATE COOP 98 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 98 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 98 HARRISON COOP 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 97 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 97 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 97 CANOE BROOK COOP 97 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 96 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 96 Newark Area ThreadEx 96 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 96 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 96 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 96 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 96 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 96 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 96 ESTELL MANOR COOP 96 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 95 Trenton Area ThreadEx 95 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 95 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 95 Monthly Data for July 2019 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature HARRISON COOP 101 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 100 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 MARGATE COOP 100 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 Newark Area ThreadEx 99 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 99 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 99 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 98 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 98 SALEM COOP 98 CANOE BROOK COOP 98 ESTELL MANOR COOP 98 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 98 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 98 Monthly Data for July 2018 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature ATSION COOP 101 HARRISON COOP 101 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 100 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 CANOE BROOK COOP 99 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 99 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 99 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98 Trenton Area ThreadEx 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 98 Newark Area ThreadEx 98 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 98 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 98 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 98 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 97 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 97 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 97 ESTELL MANOR COOP 97 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 97 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 97 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 97 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 97 Monthly Data for July 2017 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 HARRISON COOP 98 Newark Area ThreadEx 98 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 97 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 97 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 96 CANOE BROOK COOP 96 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 95 Trenton Area ThreadEx 95 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 95 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 95 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 95 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 95 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 95 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 95 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 95 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 95 Monthly Data for July 2016 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 CANOE BROOK COOP 99 Newark Area ThreadEx 99 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 98 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 98 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 98 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 97 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 HARRISON COOP 97 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 97 Monthly Data for July 2015 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature CRANFORD COOP 100 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 HARRISON COOP 98 Newark Area ThreadEx 98 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 97 CANOE BROOK COOP 96 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 96 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 96 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 96 Monthly Data for July 2014 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 98 POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 98 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 97 Newark Area ThreadEx 96 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 96 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 96 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 96 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 95 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 95 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 95 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 95 Monthly Data for July 2013 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature HARRISON COOP 102 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 Newark Area ThreadEx 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 100 CRANFORD COOP 99 RINGWOOD COOP 99 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 98 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 98 Monthly Data for July 2012 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 CHATHAM 2 W COOP 104 Newark Area ThreadEx 104 CRANFORD COOP 103 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 HARRISON COOP 103 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 102 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 102 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 102 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 102 CANOE BROOK COOP 101 RINGWOOD COOP 101 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 101 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 Monthly Data for July 2011 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 Newark Area ThreadEx 108 HARRISON COOP 107 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 106 Trenton Area ThreadEx 106 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 105 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 105 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 Monthly Data for July 2010 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature CANOE BROOK COOP 107 RINGWOOD COOP 106 HARRISON COOP 106 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 106 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 104 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 104 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 104 Trenton Area ThreadEx 104 CRANFORD COOP 104 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 103 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 103 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 103 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 103 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 103 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Absolute drenching here with this last cell. No hail from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Flood advisory now. Backyard under water again. massive CTG strike just shook the house 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are in the watch RadarScope didn’t get the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My mom visited me over the weekend and was wondering how the lawns up here are all so green but at her house in Long Beach all brown. The grass down there is practically charred. Too bad yet again they’re missing good rain. I guess convection keeps firing on the sea breeze front for the past few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Radar estimating 1-1.5” in places that got both cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Radar estimating 1-1.5” in places that got both cells. Do you think cells will start to fire off NW of the city we have been bone dry for weeks?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I’m on the south shore near ISP watching the storm roll on by, only some loud thunder. Traveled on NY135 earlier and you can see the transition from green in the north to browning in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Do you think cells will start to fire off NW of the city we have been bone dry for weeks?? Hopefully, since the front is still well to our west but it probably depends on how much heating/instability can be generated under all the cloudiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Not a drop in Somerset This heat is as useless as dry/cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 More storms are firing up in Western NJ and heading east towards Manhattan, Bronx and north shore of Long Island if they hold together. Can't even gets showers down here.....sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 early crapvection is what happens when there's no EML. we don't seem to get them anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Thunder but no rain…this is cruel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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