wthrmn654 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 - Changed Discussion -- Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies through the upcoming weak, which will allow for several frontal systems to impact the area. Additionally, temperatures this week will be mainly at or just above normal with the exception of Monday and Friday, where temperatures will be a bit warmer ahead of approaching cold fronts. There is uncertainty Monday with both temperatures and the magnitude/coverage of convection in the afternoon/evening hours as a pre-frontal trough triggers the majority of the convection. Model time-height cross sections indicate an abundance of mid and high level moisture (clouds) which would be a limiting factor for highs as well as how much the airmass destabilizes. For the time, have held off on extending the heat advisory into Monday, but the potential remains. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area Monday. The main threat being damaging winds associated with multicell clusters or line segments. Deep-layer shear does deepen through the day. The question is the amount of daytime heating/destabilization (extent of cloud cover) and whether the forcing with the pre-frontal trough will be deep enough to trigger convection. Mid-level lapse rates, as has been the case for most events this warm season, are around or just shy of 6C. So while not a slam dunk event (rarely are here), the ingredients are there for severe weather. In addition, the southward progression of the boundary will be slow, raising possible concerns for training of thunderstorms. WPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Tue and Wed. A warm front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast during this time. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Maxed out at 93 today down to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Just combed through the data. 44025 reached a brief high of 29.1 degrees celsius or 84.4°F in 2016. 44025 never had water temps above 27°C (80.6°F) until 2016, it also happened in 2020 as well. This heat wave will bring them very close, top 3 for sure. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2016&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2020&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum When do the sea surface temperatures at these off shore buoys typically peak? Would the end of August be when the max would be reached? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: When do the sea surface temperatures at these off shore buoys typically peak? Would the end of August be when the max would be reached? Depends on the summer but average water temperatures usually peak in August, sometimes earlier, sometimes later. It mostly depends on the weather though. Water temperatures are usually at their highest at the end of heat waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Just combed through the data. 44025 reached a brief high of 29.1 degrees celsius or 84.4°F in 2016. 44025 never had water temps above 27°C (80.6°F) until 2016, it also happened in 2020 as well. This heat wave will bring them very close, top 3 for sure. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2016&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2020&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 The Park hit a high of 95. Should hit a high of 97-99 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 7/23 EWR: 101 New Brnswck: 99 TTN: 98 PHL: 98 TEB: 98 BLM: 97 LGA: 97 JFK: 96 ACY: 96 NYC: 95 ISP: 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 A hot day that saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 90s in much of the region has concluded. Tomorrow has the potential to be a few degrees warmer. Tomorrow will feature sunshine with near record and record heat. Highs will reach 95°-100° with higher figures in the lower 100s across much of the region. Select daily records for July 24: Allentown: 95°, 1999 and 2016 Baltimore: 101°, 2010 Bridgeport: 95°, 2010 Hartford: 96°, 1987 Islip: 96°, 2010 New York City-JFK: 97°, 2010 New York City-LGA: 98°, 1999 and 2010 New York City-NYC: 97°, 1999 and 2010 Newark: 99°, 2010 Philadelphia: 98°, 2011 Poughkeepsie: 100°, 1933 Washington, DC: 101°, 2010 White Plains: 95°, 1952 Monday will be slightly cooler, but temperatures will still reach the lower 90s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will become several degrees cooler through midweek. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +1.66. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.122 today. On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.689 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Farmingdale and JFK 96 today. Scorcher right to the beaches. The lack of humidity made it tolerable. Tomorrow probably shaves off 3-4 degrees there but humidity will make it feel much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 81 at 930 woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports. It does look too high of a number to be true and it's most likely wrong. I'll be honest, I don't particularly recall the water being that warm either, highest being about 81°. 84° would not be an accurate measurement of the average temperature in the top 5ft of the water column. Checking the data, the air temperature was cooler than the water on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 I believe we hit 94 in west babylon. I spent the day on the ocean which was still around 90. currently 80 and it’s literally the perfect night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Farmingdale and JFK 96 today. Scorcher right to the beaches. The lack of humidity made it tolerable. Tomorrow probably shaves off 3-4 degrees there but humidity will make it feel much worse. Much stronger onshore flow tomorrow, so agree at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Since Heatwave began my spot In Smithtown 7/23: 97 7/22: 94 7/21: 89 (Severe storm) 7/20: 97 7/19: 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 Newark is tied with 2011 for the warmest July. It’s the 3rd warmest July in Somerset County NJ. Philly is in 4th place for warmest July. The heat also extends into our northern suburbs. Danbury is currently having their 2nd warmest July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.7 8 - 2011 82.7 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2020 78.0 0 3 2022 77.8 8 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2020 81.9 0 4 2022 81.8 8 - 2012 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 76.4 8 2 2022 75.7 8 - 2013 75.7 0 3 2020 75.6 0 4 2010 74.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Here at the state park we're starting the day off at 77°F Humidity at 82% Dew point of 71.2°F Heat index 77.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 The last 8 days of July are averaging 83degs.(74/93) or +5. The month to date is 79.5[+2.1]. July should end at 80.4[+2.9]. Reached 91 here yesterday bet. 1pm-2pm---then fell back to mid 80's. Today: 94-99, wind w., few clouds, 78 tomorrow AM. GFS Ens. says the 95-101 regime ends today, but the next 15 are still +2 to +4. 79*(83%RH) here at 7am. 83*(59%RH) at 9am. 85* at Noon. 89* at 1pm. 90* at 1:30pm. 91* at 2pm. Same T collapse as yesterday, plus high thin clouds have appeared......86* at 3pm. 85*(75%RH) at 4pm---feels like 95*. Back to 90* at 7pm. New high for the day of 92* near 7:30pm. 86*(72%RH) at 11pm---feels like 96*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and very hot with near record and record heat. There could be afternoon or evening thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach 95°-100° most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 96° Newark: 102° Philadelphia: 100° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85,2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.9° Select daily records for July 24: Allentown: 95°, 1999 and 2016 Baltimore: 101°, 2010 Bridgeport: 95°, 2010 Hartford: 96°, 1987 Islip: 96°, 2010 New York City-JFK: 97°, 2010 New York City-LGA: 98°, 1999 and 2010 New York City-NYC: 97°, 1999 and 2010 Newark: 99°, 2010 Philadelphia: 98°, 2011 Poughkeepsie: 100°, 1933 Washington, DC: 101°, 2010 White Plains: 95°, 1952 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 How much rain are we getting tomorrow? An inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: How much rain are we getting tomorrow? An inch? .12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 80 here as of 8AM. DP 69/ RH 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 The driest parts of Central NJ this month also has the least snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The driest parts of Central NJ this month also has the least snow last winter. I feel like that depiction out towards riverhead is incorrect, they had 2-3 inches of rain in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Forecast high is 86 for my area but it's already 82. Hmm well I beat that, time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 Today looks like the peak of the heatwave with Newark making a run on a record breaking 102°. It will also be the first time that Newark had a 5 day 100° heatwave. The best that Newark did in the past was 4 consecutive 100° days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2022-07-23 1 4 2022-07-23 - 4 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-31 2 3 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: How much rain are we getting tomorrow? An inch? I’m on north shore of Long Island. I’ll wager above 1” based on how things are working this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 From Ginx in NE Forum: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 And bam just like that forecast high is 91 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 High for the day yesterday was 102 here. Current temp 86/DP 66/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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