Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

July 2022


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has an impressive temperature and dewpoint gradient when the heatwave peaks on Sunday. Highs of 104° in New Jersey with mid 70s dewpoints near the coast. So a very strong Ambrose Jet event with gusts to 35 mph along the South Shore.
 

27A3AF91-02A0-443E-A3B5-DA6D663BC619.thumb.png.321146bca3978ec84b2699cfeba3395e.png

580BF2A0-3FF8-4401-B05D-39C08A66F1EA.thumb.png.308cc496a3ab1f7420aebac7317f7db2.png

7F654B65-AFFF-46E3-AEE0-171C854666FC.thumb.png.28e9c9572f4cb169526fbd02fa926efb.png

Ambrose jet? What is this, May? You can forget about going to the Long Island beaches to beat the heat with that. You’ll get sand blasted and be dodging flying beach umbrellas by the afternoon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and hot. Thee could be afternoon or evening thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 92°

Newark: 99°

Philadelphia: 98°

Hot weather will continue through at least the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85,2°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging  86degs.(77/96) or +8.

Month to date is  78.7[+1.3].     Should be  80.8[+3.1] by the 29th.

Reached just 89 here yesterday.

Today:  90-95, wind sw., p. cloudy, 78 tomorrow.

No rain till Mon./Tues.     GFS reaches 90+ 15 times in the next 16 days.      Where is the Hurricane Season in all this?

78*(90%RH) here at 7am.      80* at 7:30am.     82*(83%RH) at 9am.      83*/84* basically from 10am to Noon.       Down to 81* at 1pm as storms passed well to the north.        86* at 3pm.       90* at 3:15pm.        91* at 3:30pm.      94*(54%RH) at 4pm---feels like 106.      97*(38%) at 6pm---feels like 102.   98*(38%RH) at 7pm.      Reached 99* at 7:30pm.        90* at 9pm.      89* at 10pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had at least 4 ground level stations reach 100° yesterday across the area. 3 of these stations were mesonets and 1 was Newark airport. So with this new expanded coverage, we are finding out that Newark really isn’t that unique in terms of heat. The local TV and radio outlets need to highlight more than just the NYC ASOS in Central Park  which is in error. The dense tree growth shading the sensor can be 3° or more degrees cooler than just a few hundred feet away on an open lawn in Central Park. That is how much cooler a shielded sensor can be tucked under dense vegetation with shade and leaf transpiration. Many TV and radio forecasts were leading with highs of 90-95° yesterday for NYC. This was due to them just focusing on Central Park instead of the whole area. Outside of the immediate shore, the better range was a high of 95° to 100° which models like the Euro and HRRR did very well with. So the artificially cool NYC readings are one reason it’s rare to see 100° in a local broadcast forecast.

 

Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100  

Newark …….100

Brownsville 100
Corona 100

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Hoping to get Nam'd around noon today!

Yeah, most models like the RGEM have active sea breeze front convection today. The dewpoints are already in the mid 70s on Long Island. Hopefully, the axis of heaviest storms can get your area.

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   77  76  

 

558A3CB2-20AC-48B6-94EF-CC78E5C263AC.thumb.png.7685ebe0bb8119bb686c7d827785443b.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had at least 4 ground level stations reach 100° yesterday across the area. 3 of these stations were mesonets and 1 was Newark airport. So with this new expanded coverage, we are finding out that Newark really isn’t that unique in terms of heat. The local TV and radio outlets need to highlight more than just the NYC ASOS in Central Park  which is in error. The dense tree growth shading the sensor can be 3° or more degrees cooler than just a few hundred feet away on an open lawn in Central Park. That is how much cooler a shielded sensor can be tucked under dense vegetation with shade and leaf transpiration. Many TV and radio forecasts were leading with highs of 90-95° yesterday for NYC. This was due to them just focusing on Central Park instead of the whole area. Outside of the immediate shore, the better range was a high of 95° to 100° which models like the Euro and HRRR did very well with. So the artificially cool NYC readings are one reason it’s rare to see 100° in a local broadcast forecast.

 

Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100  

Newark …….100

Brownsville 100
Corona 100

 

 

The avg daytime error for temps the last 28 days at ewr is 4-5 degrees. When you have a westerly wind component it becomes way to warm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The avg daytime error for temps the last 28 days at ewr is 4-5 degrees. When you have a westerly wind component it becomes way to warm 

The Newark ASOS has been right in line with other urban stations for the last few weeks. There was a period back in June and early July when it was only 1-2° warmer than the other urban sites. But that could just be within the normal warm season variability from station to station. Just check all the other local highs. There hasn’t been any period recently when the Newark ASOS was 4-5° warmer then the next highest temperature in our area. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, most models like the RGEM have active sea breeze front convection today. The dewpoints are already in the mid 70s on Long Island. Hopefully, the axis of heaviest storms can get your area.

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   77  76  

 

558A3CB2-20AC-48B6-94EF-CC78E5C263AC.thumb.png.7685ebe0bb8119bb686c7d827785443b.png

Yep, feels disgusting outside. Hopefully we can get something to fire near the coast and not just NJ and places away. Rain is definitely needed here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, feels disgusting outside. Hopefully we can get something to fire near the coast and not just NJ and places away. Rain is definitely needed here. 

When the SSTs and the dewpoints both reach 75° It only takes a weak trigger to set off convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We hit 98 here yesterday. 3 years ago today my somewhat accurate weather station hit 100 for what is the only time that I recall. I presume that could be passed on Sunday. 

 

Dry spell has been brutal on plants and lawns. All the lawns are brown and dormant here unless irrigated. The rains of several days completely missed this part of Somerset Cty. I was watching the maps and hoping for rain but we were in a persistent gap with the cells going north and south of us. My raspberries and tomatoes are wilting and I pulled out the sprinkler yesterday evening. I will water other parts of garden this evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Newark ASOS has been right in line with other urban stations for the last few weeks. There was a period back in June and early July when it was only 1-2° warmer than the other urban sites. But that could just be within the normal warm season variability from station to station. Just check all the other local highs. There hasn’t been any period recently when the Newark ASOS was 4-5° warmer then the next highest temperature in our area. 

Any westerly wind component ewr becomes to warm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...