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July 2022


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...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values in the upper 90s and lower 100s.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few locations may reach heat index values around 105 Thursday and then again on Sunday.

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values in the upper 90s and lower 100s.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few locations may reach heat index values around 105 Thursday and then again on Sunday.

NJZ004-006-103>106-211015-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
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NYZ072>075-176-178-211015-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

NJZ107-108-211015-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0000Z/
Western Union-Eastern Union-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
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36 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Hit 99 WOW!

 

Down to 97 but hopefully  we push push push to 100!

You know the soil and vegetation has to be very dry for a farm in Somerset County to be almost as hot as Newark.

 

Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2022-07-20 15:00 Mesonet 99

 

https://www.njweather.org/station/3572

https://www.njweather.org/maps/station-locations


57CACC68-7A07-4C96-B972-C4FE70CAAF44.jpeg.8d4fb4795e87b57f54262f47e2734cf3.jpeg

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The shielded sensor in the backyard is down to 91.  The sensor over the garage roof is at 100.3.  The power is still out.   I hear the hum of generators from impatient neighbors 

PSEG outage map has a couple of large outages for Smithtown.  Hope you are turned back on quickly, map estimates 5:45pm.

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1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:
NYZ072>075-176-178-211015-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

NJZ107-108-211015-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0000Z/
Western Union-Eastern Union-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

Don’t ever remember a heat advisory being issued for so many consecutive days.

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21 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

PSEG outage map has a couple of large outages for Smithtown.  Hope you are turned back on quickly, map estimates 5:45pm.

Thanks.  Power just came back as of 4:30.  A little over an hour.  Hardly even noticeable considering our usual third world power situation here.

Temp back up to 94.  That was a an interesting little dip that seemed to be wide spread across the island.  A sea breeze feint. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Thanks.  Power just came back as of 4:30.  A little over an hour.  Hardly even noticeable considering our usual third world power situation here.

Temp back up to 94.  That was a an interesting little dip that seemed to be wide spread across the island.  A sea breeze feint. 

Pseg has been doing good,  blame the rich and entitled in your area of the island not letting them cut down or trim the trees more aggressively on top of the insane amount of trees per area lol. 

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9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pseg has been doing good,  blame the rich and entitled in your area of the island not letting them cut down or trim the trees more aggressively on top of the insane amount of trees per area lol. 

I'll see what I can do to get the entire region clearcut and paved.  Not sure how my power outage on a sunny day becomes part of a class war.

Temp here now back up to 95, equal to the max for the day.

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The longest heatwave so far this summer is now underway. Much of the region saw temperatures rise into the middle 90s with some hotter spots. Highs included:

Albany: 96°
Baltimore: 95°
Boston: 92°
Bridgeport: 93°
Burlington: 93°
Hartford: 97°
Islip: 95°
New York City-JFK: 95°
New York City-LGA: 97°
New York City-NYC: 95°
Newark: 100°
Philadelphia: 96°
Washington, DC: 91°

The heat will continue through at least the weekend. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and likely reach or exceed 100° on the hottest days.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +2.22.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.109 today.

On July 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.337 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.735 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal).

 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The longest heatwave so far this summer is now underway. Much of the region saw temperatures rise into the middle 90s with some hotter spots. Highs included:

Albany: 96°
Baltimore: 95°
Boston: 92°
Bridgeport: 93°
Burlington: 93°
Hartford: 97°
Islip: 95°
New York City-JFK: 95°
New York City-LGA: 97°
New York City-NYC: 95°
Newark: 100°
Philadelphia: 96°
Washington, DC: 91°

The heat will continue through at least the weekend. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and likely reach or exceed 100° on the hottest days.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +2.22.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.109 today.

On July 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.337 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.735 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal).

 

Surprised by DC only getting to 91

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The Euro has an impressive temperature and dewpoint gradient when the heatwave peaks on Sunday. Highs of 104° in New Jersey with mid 70s dewpoints near the coast. So a very strong Ambrose Jet event with gusts to 35 mph along the South Shore.
 

27A3AF91-02A0-443E-A3B5-DA6D663BC619.thumb.png.321146bca3978ec84b2699cfeba3395e.png

580BF2A0-3FF8-4401-B05D-39C08A66F1EA.thumb.png.308cc496a3ab1f7420aebac7317f7db2.png

7F654B65-AFFF-46E3-AEE0-171C854666FC.thumb.png.28e9c9572f4cb169526fbd02fa926efb.png

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