July 2022

[Cfa]

High of 88 here, currently 84 and breezy.

Been north of NY25 for a couple of months now and it really reminds me of Queens (my normal) in terms of highs. Completely different world compared to ISP.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS is out: 

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts. 

[dWave]

47 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Currently

D.C. 89

Baltimore 91

Philly 91

Hartford 90

Central Park 88

Newark 98

In today's case there's more clouds and storms around DC so they not reaching their full potential. The park probably shouldn't be the same as an overcast DCA.

A late push and I'm up to 96.

 

[Snowlover11]

92 here in Nanuet

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah all of a sudden it got windy and started thundering

I heard a little thunder here too, and briefly windy with the heavy downpour.

[bluewave]

Highs around the region today…

ALB….95°

POU…94°

EWR….99°

Harrison…97°

Hoboken…97°

LGA….93°

NYC….91°

[Stormlover74]

if central park ever reaches 100 again we'll all be dead

[dWave]

A t storm just south of south st seaport is causing pandemonium with flying umbrella and flying broken glass on the piers for happy hour. Pouring in Bk with drizzle sunshine and powerful winds by Fulton 

[uncle W]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Highs around the region today…

ALB….95°

POU…94°

EWR….99°

Harrison…97°

LGA….93°

NYC….91°

Harrison was two degrees cooler and it comes from someones back yard off of Harrison ave and Davis ave...not much greenery except for some trees...

[uncle W]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

if central park ever reaches 100 again we'll all be dead

98 last June...100 can be reached...it will be 110 in Newark though...

[ForestHillWx]

84 here. Storm blew up south east of me. 

[doncat]

94° high here, shower dropped 0.07" and temp down to 81° currently.

[uncle W]

thunder and lighting now with rain...

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

98 last June...100 can be reached...it will be 110 in Newark though...

Yeah, the all-time  highs set back in 2010 and 2011 have been tough to challenge. My guess is that it has been too wet since then to reach those levels. Drought feedback is very important for all-time highs. 
 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	104
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	104
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	104
CT	DANBURY	COOP	104
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	103
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	103
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	103
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	103
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	103
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	102
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	102
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	102
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	102
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	101
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	101
NY	BRONX	COOP	101
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	101
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	100
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	100
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	100
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	100
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	100
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	100
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	100
CT	BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL	COOP	100

[Rjay]

Wow i didnt know Mineola and Wantagh hit 108 and 107 respectively.  

[uncle W]

July 2010 was on the dry side...2011 was closer to averege...Aug 2011 was very wet...this year is not exactly wet so 100 can be reached...

[MJO812]

Warning here

[CIK62]

Possible Water Spout Tornado off of CI at 5:42PM?      Did not actually see anything but sand going round.       1 lightning flash.

Was not even aware of the Warning.     Phone went off?    E-Mail came during the action.     CI was mentioned specifically.      I have some photos that really show nothing.      

This is an important message from NY Alert

HEADLINE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 01 at 5:42PM EDT until July 01 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Queens County in southeastern New York...
Kings County in southeastern New York...
Nassau County in southeastern New York...
* Until 630 PM EDT.
* At 542 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Coney Island,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.
* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Sheepshead Bay around 545 PM EDT.
Flatbush around 550 PM EDT.
Canarsie around 555 PM EDT.
Rockaway Beach and Howard Beach around 600 PM EDT.
Kennedy Airport around 605 PM EDT.
Jamaica and Long Beach around 610 PM EDT.
Valley Stream and Lynbrook around 615 PM EDT.
Garden City and Baldwin around 620 PM EDT.
Freeport and Mineola around 625 PM EDT.
Levittown and Massapequa around 630 PM EDT.
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

INSTRUCTIONS: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts. 

I think it will be an interesting forecast. I’ve seen some experts saying we currently have a volcanic stratosphere. Also looks like rapidly increasing solar and +QBO taking over by winter. When you add in the very rare 3rd year Niña, record -IOD and the very persistent -PDO/-PMM states, it should be a very difficult winter forecast coming up

[donsutherland1]

Under strong sunshine, the mercury soared into the 90s in many parts of the region. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 91°
Baltimore: 96°
Boston: 92°
Hartford: 94°
New York City: 91°
Newark: 99°
Philadelphia: 94°
Washington, DC: 92°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A cold front will move across the region bringing thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could grow to severe levels.

Afterward, it will be somewhat cooler. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +19.39 today. The old daily record was +21.58 in 2009)

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.168 today.

On June 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.483 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.555 (RMM).

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it will be an interesting forecast. I’ve seen some experts saying we currently have a volcanic stratosphere. Also looks like rapidly increasing solar and +QBO taking over by winter. When you add in the very rare 3rd year Niña, record -IOD and the very persistent -PDO/-PMM states, it should be a very difficult winter forecast coming up

We don’t rally have any analogs for so much water vapor injected into the stratosphere. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381

 

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

Key Points

 

• Following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measured enhancements of stratospheric H₂O, SO₂, and HCl

• The mass of SO₂ and HCl injected is comparable to that from prior eruptions, whereas the magnitude of the H₂O injection is unprecedented

• Excess stratospheric H₂O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming

The violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.

[Cfa]

52 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wow i didnt know Mineola and Wantagh hit 108 and 107 respectively.  

Isn’t 108 the state record?

[Intensewind002]

Tiny cumulonimbus just to my south

[Intensewind002]

8 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Tiny cumulonimbus just to my south

Holy crap just got clear air lightning/a bolt from the blue

[Rjay]

Even with gusts near 30mph here, this humidity feels shitty. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Wow i didnt know Mineola and Wantagh hit 108 and 107 respectively.  

The south shore can get very hot on the right wind direction, but you know this having grown up there. I swear the hottest I have ever felt is at the beach with a strong Nw flow. The sand radiating has I cause near surface temps to exceed 110

[BucksCO_PA]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

if central park ever reaches 100 again we'll all be dead

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. Triple digits are not easy especially with significant increase in precip & humidity. The sensor at PHL is currently reading 1-2 too warm therefore they have a better than average shot this summer. 

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. Triple digits are not easy especially with significant increase in precip & humidity. The sensor at PHL is currently reading 1-2 too warm therefore they have a better than average shot this summer. 

Can I please have a link to the PHL sensor issue?  So PHL is too warm but nothing about Central Park surrounded by a jungle?

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. 

Several other spots around Philly have hit 100° in recent years.

 

Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	100

 

Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	101
MD	STEVENSVILLE 2SW	COOP	100
DE	GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	100
NJ	ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	100
PA	NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	100

 

Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	101
NJ	ATSION	COOP	101
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	100
PA	NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NJ	HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	100
NJ	FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	100

[SACRUS]

 

7/1

EWR: 99
TEB: 96
LGA: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 94
New Brnswck: 93
ACY: 91
NYC: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 85
ISP: 83