wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Sunday/ Monday I've heard rain for everyone for a few days..... But I'll agree and believe after it's done. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: the 12z CAMs got better with instability today and have sea breeze storms popping up over the metro this afternoon they were too aggressive with the sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 84/67 currently, just got like 30 drops of rain from a little shower that popped up right over me. Only the 2nd time this month for any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 How do you spell Heat Wave? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 83 high so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Ofifically a heatwave here. Current temp 92/DP 63/RH 39% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 84, with 65 dp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 23 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: You haven't had a 90 yet wow.. I have I think only 2 times maybe 1 in actuality. Today got to 89 now is starting to cool. Got on my parents roof without pulling a Mary Poppins getting blown off yesterday to replace a battery in transmitter.. oh what fun those jobs are Sorry I missed your comment yesterday, yeah I haven’t had a 90+ high since I hit 94 on May 31st. The highest I had in June was 89 and 88 yesterday was the highest so far for July. 85 so far for the high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 87 here after a high of 90. Low was 68. My two hottest days of the year are both in May still: 95.9 on 5/31 93.4 on 5/22 93.0 on 7/13 (yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Hope?: Finally some decent wrinkles in the Great Lakes eastern Rockies extension of the persistent summer 2022 nw flow (trough 70W) pattern that the EC finally latches onto (GEFS/GEPS seem to have muddled their way into more qpf faster than the big surge in todays 12z/EPS). I can only hope that these wrinkles are legit, and break what seems to be our worst dry spell since 2017-18 here in Sussex County NJ (attached) since 2017 (per drought monitor stats). Drought in our Sussex County NJ, the two wrinkles per 12z EPS seen in Tropical Tidbits and the EPS QPF per Pivotal Weather through D10 that is now double the mean qpf compared to many previous cycles. I hope this is somewhat correct. Our home in Wantage NJ: less than 1/4" since 6/23. Yes, we missed the TOR/SVR storm just 10-15 miles to our south from a couple days ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 56 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Sorry I missed your comment yesterday, yeah I haven’t had a 90+ high since I hit 94 on May 31st. The highest I had in June was 89 and 88 yesterday was the highest so far for July. 85 so far for the high today Oh OK that makes more sense since January your have had 1 90 degree day, same as me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks! Here are some good sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: How do you spell Heat Wave? please stop posting that ridiculous thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 At Central Park, the mercury reached 90°. That was the third consecutive such day there, marking the year's first heatwave. Temperatures will continue to average near or above normal through at least the coming weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +10.09. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.149 today. On July 12 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.525 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.521 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Looks like storms forming along the sea breeze front across Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Actual rain for the first time this month! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 i will enjoy the rest of the day and tomorrow not bad for mid july... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Actual rain for the first time this month! Sea breeze fronts usually start producing for the South Shore when the SSTs reach the mid 70s south of Long Island. NY Harb Entrance 2050 74 20 S Fire Island 2050 74 Great South Bay 2030 23 SSW Montauk P 2050 15 E Barnegat Li 1956 76 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Actual rain for the first time this month! Had just a few drops here in Southwest Nassau 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 It just poured out of nowhere for a minute and then stopped. That cell looks to be headed my way (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Nice storm here. Needed this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Hail core like few miles to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: the 12z CAMs got better with instability today and have sea breeze storms popping up over the metro this afternoon And here they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Pouring with the sun out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Severe thunderstorm warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 77/74 with a breeze as the rain comes to an end. DP jumped 4 degrees in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Pleasant distant thunder, and light rain here. Rainbow potential high, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 WHOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Got to 86 here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Rainbow confirmed from here. Sorry no pics. The set up was too perfect; I'm sure pics will be captured and shared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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