uncle W Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 we might be seeing a long period with minimums above 70 in NYC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 Lowest dewpoint July so far at JFK since before the super El Niño. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 stronger WAR signal showing up. this might be the end of the dry period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 91 here. First 90+ in quite some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 92 in commack, off a low of 70. Dew of only 65, so its not awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 93/68 here. First 90 of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Not commenting on Newark itself, there's enough folks doing that, but I had that problem with my old Vantage Vue, it was very evident on sunny days, but not all sunny days. It tended to happen in the spring more than any other season for some reason. I could never pinpoint the exact conditions when it would happen but when it did there was no doubt when comparing it to my other thermometers and other local readings. The Vue has no FARS but Newark must so its not a direct comparison. Yeah thats a problem with many passive shields....Have to be careful when looking at the pws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 I can't recall the last time it was this dry in this area. Seeing as our overall weather pattern is a pattern of extremes, I'd hate to see how our climate compensates for how dry we are... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Maybe Central Park can get to 90 tomorrow and establish a heat wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 @bluewave @donsutherland1 We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, dWave said: Maybe Central Park can get to 90 tomorrow and establish a heat wave Unlikely but possible. I'd rank it a 30% chance. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 87/67 for me currently, no 90s yet this July for SW Suffolk and I think that’ll remain the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter: Yeah, this La Niña background state has been on steroids since the super El Niño . July temperature departures across the area would probably be +3 to +5 at all local stations if the blocking wasn’t suppressing the La Nina ridge to our SW. Those big departures are setting up over the Plains. But we are getting a dry NW flow aloft between the block and 50/50 low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: stronger WAR signal showing up. this might be the end of the dry period still 10 days away again... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: 87/67 for me currently, no 90s yet this July for SW Suffolk and I think that’ll remain the case You haven't had a 90 yet wow.. I have I think only 2 times maybe 1 in actuality. Today got to 89 now is starting to cool. Got on my parents roof without pulling a Mary Poppins getting blown off yesterday to replace a battery in transmitter.. oh what fun those jobs are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 5-31 I had 90.1 So actually I think I've only had 1 90°F day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 2 hours ago, TriPol said: I can't recall the last time it was this dry in this area. Seeing as our overall weather pattern is a pattern of extremes, I'd hate to see how our climate compensates for how dry we are... I said there’s a couple of days ago. It has been a long time since we’ve had a summer this dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 94 here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: 5-31 I had 90.1 So actually I think I've only had 1 90°F day lol I've had 2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 2 hours ago, TriPol said: I can't recall the last time it was this dry in this area. Seeing as our overall weather pattern is a pattern of extremes, I'd hate to see how our climate compensates for how dry we are... Rubber bands snapping and all that... It's going to take a 65" 12 month period to get me back to average to compensate for the last 12 dry months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: still 10 days away again... we start getting consistent warmth on day 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 18zgfs says not so fast per say. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we start getting consistent warmth on day 4 I mean that translates to temperature #s 85-90 any of those days though it does cool a little near to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 cope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 This is my 7th 90 degree day in NW Suffolk. By this date last year we had 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 93 my high..10th 90+ day Going for my first official heatwave tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 93° high for 2nd straight day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: cope More of the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and continued very warm. However, readings will continue to average near or above normal through at least the coming weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week. In the South and Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Phoenix registered a high temperature of 113°. Austin reached 108°, which tied the record set in 2020. Austin has now recorded five consecutive record-tying or record-breaking highs. It also has recorded a record 4 consecutive days with highs of 108° or above. Galveston saw its 11th consecutive day on which the record high minimum temperature was tied or broken. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +8.68. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.363 today. On July 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.652 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 7/13 EWR: 96 New Brnswck: 93 LGA: 92 JFK: 91 NYC: 91 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 TTN: 90 ISP: 89 ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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