July 2022

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

Airports need help when the temperature is near freezing and what kind and how much precipitation is falling...ice on runways etc...thunderstorms in the summer time need to be monitored...so if its sunny and 80 degrees you can take days off or have long lunch breaks...

I can still remember the old days when the Central Park thermometer was in the open at the castle and not in the shade like today under the trees. The open part of Central Park where the equipment was in the 70s was warmer than LGA at the time. I got a laugh from this old article in 1977 saying the NWS didn’t want to substitute the cooler LGA readings during the summer. If we had the Central Park ASOS on the Great Lawn today, it would be warmer than LGA but cooler than EWR. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

 

[forkyfork]

the not extremely warm temp pattern came to a close yesterday

 

[snowman19]

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Do you guys have access to the QBO forecast projections? Just read a tweet saying models are showing it getting very strongly positive come winter. Thank you in advance 

[jr461]

19 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I have to ask a silly question…it almost seems as if posters on this forum are rooting for extreme heat and humidity.

Why?

73F, Low humidity. Beautiful evening.

They root for extreme cold and crippling snowstorms, too.  How is this different?  They want extremes.  And, like winter, the extreme always seems 7-10 days out but doesn't actually get here (save for a 1-2 day surge).

Personally, I prefer heat to cold so I'd take heat waves over cold, snowy winters every time.  

Yes, the lack of sustained humidity has been notable.  It seems like there have been more days with deep blue skies already than many summers have all season.

[thunderbolt]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS is struggling between the strength of the WAR/SE Ridge and the high latitude blocking. 

12z run today blocking more dominant

 

12z run yesterday stronger WAR/SE Ridge

 

 

I swear to you I know what’s going to happen, December January February say bye-bye to the blocking and say hello to that Southeast Ridge

[thunderbolt]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Do you guys have access to the QBO forecast projections? Just read a tweet saying models are showing it getting very strongly positive come winter. Thank you in advance 

Of course a strengthen stratosphere

[kat5hurricane]

How anyone can want heat and humidity after this remarkable 3 day stretch is beyond me. Just perfect weather for outdoor activities. 

I get the extreme weather junkie aspect of it but this "boring" weather is better for living life, at least IMO.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS is struggling between the strength of the WAR/SE Ridge and the high latitude blocking. 

12z run today blocking more dominant

 

12z run yesterday stronger WAR/SE Ridge

 

 

it's still hot

[dWave]

19 minutes ago, jr461 said:

They root for extreme cold and crippling snowstorms, too.  How is this different?  They want extremes.  And, like winter, the extreme always seems 7-10 days out but doesn't actually get here (save for a 1-2 day surge).

Personally, I prefer heat to cold so I'd take heat waves over cold, snowy winters every time.  

Yes, the lack of sustained humidity has been notable.  It seems like there have been more days with deep blue skies already than many summers have all season.

I've found it remarkable the frequency of dew points in the 50s, even 40s still.  It's not like temps are averaging well below normal. I think that's what creates the muted summer feel to some people, more so than a lack of extended heat waves. It can be a hot summer here even with only occasional 90s but not when you're still getting multiples days of 50 degree dews into mid July. At least compared to recent memory

[Eduardo]

Got sandblasted down at Brighton Beach today.  Was breezy as hell!  Still, sunny, warm and dry though.

[donsutherland1]

A brief surge of heat is likely for tomorrow and Wednesday. Some strong thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon or evening. Widespread 90s are possible.

In the South and Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Through 3:35 pm MST, Phoenix had reached 115° for the first time this year. Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above through the remainder of the week.

Parts of Texas saw more record heat. Record high temperatures included:

Abilene: 106° (old record: 104°, 1998)
Austin: 109° (old record: 108°, 1917)
San Antonio: 107° (old record: 104°, 1917)

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +8.99.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today.

On July 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.905 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

I have a feeling this one hits a wall as it closes in on the city. Dry local soil conditions and a strong onshore flow tomorrow. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Do you guys have access to the QBO forecast projections? Just read a tweet saying models are showing it getting very strongly positive come winter. Thank you in advance 

Unfortunately, I don't have access to QBO forecasts.

[winterwarlock]

Need big gullywasher tomorrow  to keep me in the lawn maintenance business

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Need big gullywasher tomorrow  to keep me in the lawn maintenance business

my guy skipped my brown lawn this week

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Places like Newark will need to hold the rainfall under 1.59 for a shot at top 10 driest July. The 0.16 so far is pretty low for early July. But we still have around 3 weeks to go so there is always the chance of a heavier rain event sneaking in.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
	2022	0.16	21
1	1932	0.84	0
2	1966	0.89	0
3	1999	1.01	0
4	1955	1.14	0
5	2002	1.19	0
6	1974	1.31	0
7	1998	1.34	0
8	1954	1.45	0
9	1977	1.51	0
	1957	1.51	0
10	1983	1.59

 

We are in the running for the 1st legit drought in the NYC metro area since 2002

[CIK62]

Now take this!       GFS better stand for Good For Sh_t or Dallas is in trouble..............Avg. 107 or +12........wacked out MOS.     Avg. 92 for us or +6.

Monthly Climatic Summary For DFW Metroplex

JULY 2022

 

Day	High	Low	Precip	Wind	Heating	Cooling
1	95	75	0.00	9.2	0	20
2	99	77	0.00	8.1	0	23
3	101	80	0.00	9.5	0	26
4	100	81	0.00	12.9	0	26
5	102	81	0.00	12.6	0	27
6	103	82	0.00	12.3	0	28
7	103	82	0.00	11.9	0	28
8	106	83	0.00	9.8	0	30
9	105	82	0.00	6.4	0	29
10	102	81	0.00	9.2	0	27
Month to Date
Average Temp	Average High	Average Low	Total Precip		Total Heating	Total Cooling
91.0	101.6	80.4	0.00		0	264

[greenmtnwx]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

your nearest asos is running +1.4 so far this month against the warmest normals we've ever had. that's a summer of yesteryear? 

Very mild summer. No heat, great breezes. Been beautiful. 

[SACRUS]

7/11

TEB: 89
EWE: 88
NewBrsnswck: 87
PHL: 86
NYC: 85
TTN: 85
LGA: 84
BLM: 83
ACY: 81
JFK: 81
ISP: 80

[SnoSki14]

Traveling in Europe where it was a steaming 60F yesterday with a 47F low. 

We won't see that till November 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and hot. Thunderstorms, some f which could be strong, are possible this afternoon or evening. High temperatures will reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 96°

Philadelphia: 91°

Tomorrow will be hot. Thunderstorms are possible.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  80degs.(71/89) or +2.

Reached 81 here late yesterday.

Today:  83-90, wind w., increasing clouds, rain/TS 5pm-11pm?     T's are down due to clouds today/Wed.

70*(95%RH) here at 7am.       73* at 9am.       77* at Noon.        82*(72%RH) at 4pm.       86* at 5pm.       Reached 87*(63%RH) by 6pm.

[the_other_guy]

19 hours ago, forkyfork said:

your nearest asos is running +1.4 so far this month against the warmest normals we've ever had. that's a summer of yesteryear? 

My nearest ASOS is having its warmest July ever thus far?

Care to expand on that sir?

[psv88]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

My nearest ASOS is having its warmest July ever thus far?

Care to expand on that sir?

That’s not what he said. 

[SACRUS]

 

Hot today, some storms later in the evening and overnight , will see how much we can cash in on.  Low-mid 90s, if we stay clear enough in the warm spots perhaps some upper 90s.  More of the same tomorrow, will just be a matter of clearing out to push temps above low/mid 90s.  Overall warm to hot next 7 days, need to see if precip increases between Sun (7/17) and next week as tropics in the Gulf and flow indicate more rain chances, otherwise more frequent pieces of the Westrn heat push east and we see overall coast to coast warm period.  The Western Atlantic Ridge is coming west the second half of July and should equate to a warm finish,

[bluewave]

Big Ambrose Jet day as the best heat sets up over NJ and interior SE NY again. Much cooler near the South Shore with wind gusts to 35mph. So plenty of blowing sand and dangerous rip currents at the beach today. 
 

 

[FPizz]

[SACRUS]

Heating up now should be low 80s by 10AM