bluewave Posted July 9, 2022 Author Share Posted July 9, 2022 Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. Typical July La Niña pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. Typical July La Niña pattern What would drive the change to a typical La Niña pattern though? Surely hasnt been present through now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 +EPO's always overperform as temps.. that it's origins have been in spinning at 90N in arctic circle for 10 days is my only doubt though, It could be a stronger 90N vortex +timelag, vs the actual +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2022 Author Share Posted July 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: What would drive the change to a typical La Niña pattern though? Surely hasnt been present through now May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Yesterday's NWS forecast for today. Pretty awful. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Yesterday's NWS forecast for today. Pretty awful. Ewr probably makes it to 90 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. WX/PT With the big question still being , but when... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 nice ne breeze i will enjoy today tomorrow and monday... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Missed all the rain yesterday and does not look to promising in near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: With the big question still being , but when... I have thought that the GFS is rushing it. I think we are still at this time prime for the 1-2 day surges maybe 3 in the 7/16-7/18 time-frame of the western ridge. I think WAR or a merger between WAR and the western ridge would more likely give us a prolonged heatwave particularly after 7/22. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Five 90’s so far, three 89’s, no heat wave yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 90 in springfield. ewr tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Tomorrow and Monday will be mostly sunny and warm. A brief surge of heat is possible for Tuesday and Wednesday. At that time, widespread 90s are possible. In the Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Through 3:30 pm MST, Phoenix has had a high temperature of 112°. Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above through the middle of next week. Afterward, somewhat cooler air will close out the week. Elsewhere, Denver reached 100° (old record: 98°, 1903, 1989 and 2021) and Salt Lake City reached 102° (tied record set in 1939 and tied in 1994). During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +4.62. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.520 today. On July 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.329 (RMM). The July 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.433 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.4° (0.9° above normal). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Beautiful night out there people. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 7/9 EWR: 89 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 NYC: 85 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 84 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 PHL: 76 ACY: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 19 hours ago, bluewave said: May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out. The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 10, 2022 Author Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter: The blocking up near Baffin Island continues to the wild card. The latest EPS is correcting stronger with block at 240 hours from a few days ago. So the La Niña SE Ridge/WAR can’t really lock in like it typically does during a La Niña summer. New run stronger Baffin Island block Old run stronger SE Ridge/WAR 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(70/90) or +2. Reached 87 here late yesterday. Today: 78-82, wind n. to s., few clouds, 67 tomorrow AM. Lower future T's than yesterday. CMC the lowest after Teusday-Wednesday rain. GFS has little rain till next Sunday. Models are ingesting some bad 'hootch'. EURO staying with 90's starting Tuesday. 69*(84%RH) here at 7am. 74* at Noon. 76* at 3pm. Reached 82* at 7pm. 71* at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 86° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasant but hot weather will likely return for Tuesday and Wednesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.8° Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 88.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 72 right now Loving this cool weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 58/48 low overnight noe 74/56 with NNE flow. Lining up to be a gorgeous day and a very mid summer week with some heat and maybe some storms. A piece of the furnace will eject east by Mon (7/11) and roast the area Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) where 850 MB temps are forecast to be >18c to 20C. Highs in the mid / upper 90s with some of the hotter spots approaching the 100 marker. Storms may time to arrive later Tuesday and overnight tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday should clear and heat up. Overall hot with temps near 90 Thu (7/14) and Fri (7/15). The latest overnight runs have kept the tropical low threat from the gulf away from the area - Euro shifts it east, GFS keeps it offshore and away from the area. Longer range : The Western Atlantic Ridge is continuing to look like a westwards retrograding extending into the coast and setting up and overall all nationwide above normal regime, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 La Nina is not succeeding. and we have a PDO evolution starting to look like 13-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not sure why Newark has so many more 90° days this year than the surrounding stations. The last 5 years Newark has been right in line with other local stations like Harrison and Caldwell. Maybe they need to send a tech out there to check the calibration. Data for January 1, 2022 through July 9, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 12 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 9 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 7 Data for January 1, 2021 through July 9, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 19 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 19 NJ HARRISON COOP 17 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 16 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 11 Data for January 1, 2020 through July 9, 2020Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 12 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 10 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9 Data for January 1, 2019 through July 9, 2019Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ HARRISON COOP 9 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 7 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6 Data for January 1, 2018 through July 9, 2018Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ HARRISON COOP 18 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 16 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 15 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 14 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 14 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 12 Data for January 1, 2017 through July 9, 2017Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 10 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8 Maybe the weather station at Newark is too close to the tarmac, and as a result gets incorrect temp readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Maybe the weather station at Newark is too close to the tarmac, and as a result gets incorrect temp readings? Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 3 shots of 3rd contour-PNA, which we really haven't seen in that location since December 2021.. as ENSO surface is warming1st time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 automation needs to be checked by manual instruments...otherwise bad readings go unnoticed... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 enjoying this pleasant summer weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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