July 2022

[SACRUS]

Some larger breaks in the clouds not between EPA and NJ, Temp up to 86 here.

[psv88]

88 yesterday 

[bluewave]

These charts do a good job showing how the tree growth began to cause a decline in NYC 90° days since the ASOS was established in 1995. The 1961-1990  and 1991-2020 climate normal periods are included. From 1961 to 1995 the Central Park ASOS wasn’t in the deep shade under the trees during peak heating  hours. So the 90° day counts were more in line with Newark and LGA. The tree growth caused a decline in 90° days from near 20 in 1961 to around 16-17 in the early 2020s. If the site was properly maintained like other weather stations are, then NYC would have close closer to 30 days reaching 90° or higher like EWR and LGA. So the major media outlets forecasting high temperatures  for NYC are all using flawed data. 
 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/LCD/stations/WBAN:94728/detail

ASOS

1995-11-01

Present

 

OBSTRUCTIONS	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
TREES	2021-04-06	Present
TREES	2017-08-01	2021-04-06
TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg	2016-06-15	2017-08-01
HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH	1995-06-27	2016-06-15

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY5801&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[etudiant]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These charts do a good job showing how the tree growth began to cause a decline in NYC 90° days since the ASOS was established in 1995. The 1961-1990  and 1991-2020 climate normal periods are included. From 1961 to 1995 the Central Park ASOS wasn’t in the deep shade under the trees during peak heating  hours. So the 90° day counts were more in line with Newark and LGA. The tree growth caused a decline in 90° days from near 20 in 1961 to around 16-17 in the early 2020s. If the site was properly maintained like other weather stations are, then NYC would have close to double the 90° day count at closer to 30 like EWR and LGA. So the major media outlets forecasting high temperatures  for NYC are all using flawed data. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY5801&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Your charts do indeed tell a clear story.

Would it help to widen the comparisons to include a couple of other Manhattan stations, the AMNH perhaps or the Greenwich Village station. That would neutralize the claim that EWR and LGA are reflecting increased heat island effects from airport expansion.

Idk whether any other station has a comparably long history, but the results since 1980 should provide pretty clear indications of Up or Down.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Your charts do indeed tell a clear story.

Would it help to widen the comparisons to include a couple of other Manhattan stations, the AMNH perhaps or the Greenwich Village station. That would neutralize the claim that EWR and LGA are reflecting increased heat island effects from airport expansion.

Idk whether any other station has a comparably long history, but the results since 1980 should provide pretty clear indications of Up or Down.

The New Brunswick site did a good job of keeping the trees at the proper distance from the thermometer. It’s a more rural or suburban site. So the 90° count has steadily increased there since 1961 to near 30° like EWR and LGA.

 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The New Brunswick site did a good job of keeping the trees at the proper distance from the thermometer. It’s a more rural or suburban site. So the 90° count has steadily increased there since 1961 to near 30° like EWR and LGA.

 

That looks properly set

[SACRUS]

1PM Roundup

 

 

New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 88
ACY: 86
TTN: 85
LGA: 85
TEB: 84
JFK: 84
EWR: 84
ISP: 83
BLM: 83

NYC: 82

[SACRUS]

Just notched 90 locally here , sunny the past 35 mins.

[etudiant]

54 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That looks properly set

Sure looks that way to me as well.

[Cfa]

7 hours ago, Cfa said:

It’s too bad today won’t reach 90, I could’ve had my second heat wave. Hit 91 yesterday.

Low of 62 this morning. Too cool for me.

Spoke too soon.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

That looks properly set

The freehold-Marlboro COOP site in Monmouth County has increased to around 30 days reaching 90° also.

 

[doncat]

Nice day today with an 85/66 temp split. Little cooler than yesterday as winds went onshore.

[donsutherland1]

A warmer than normal July concluded today. In New York City, the monthly mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 2.0° above normal.

Clouds and showers could give way to sunshine tomorrow. It will be briefly cooler before hotter air returns. Later in the week, temperatures could peak well in the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

Out West, Austin and San Antonio recorded their third consecutive record warm month. Galveston registered its fourth consecutive record warm month.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +28.87 (old record: +25.98, 2011).

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.141 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.609 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.862 (RMM).

 

[psv88]

88 here again. July finished at 77.3 here, much warmer than 2021, but cooler than 2019 and 2020. So middle the pack for me during my 7 year record at this location. 

[doncat]

With a mean temp of 79.8° this July tied with 2020 as my 3rd warmest in 45 years, beaten only by 1999 and 2010. Precip of 1.77"  so far would come in at 6th driest.

[SACRUS]

7/31

PHL: 92
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 88
TEB: 88
EWR: 87
LGA: 87
ACY: 86
NYC: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 85
BLM: 84

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

7/31

PHL: 92
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 88
TEB: 88
EWR: 87
LGA: 87
ACY: 86
NYC: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 85
BLM: 84

Gotta check that PHL thermometer, too high…

[lee59]

For July I averaged 77.9 with a high of 98.7 and a low of 57.7

[bluewave]

2nd warmest and #1 driest July on record at Newark. Harrison finished at the #1 warmest July. JFK had their 4th warmest July, it was the 6th warmest at LGA. White Plains had their 4th  warmest July. Islip finished at 7th warmest. Farmingdale was the 3rd warmest and #1 driest.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	2022	82.6	0
3	1993	82.5	0
4	2010	82.3	0
5	1994	81.9	0
6	2013	80.9	0
7	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
8	2019	80.6	0
9	1955	80.5	0
10	1988	80.4	0
11	2002	80.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	0.55	0
2	1932	0.84	0
3	1966	0.89	0
4	1999	1.01	0
5	1955	1.14	0
6	2002	1.19	0
7	1974	1.31	0
8	1998	1.34	0
9	1954	1.45	0
10	1977	1.51	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	81.6	0
2	2020	81.5	0
3	2019	81.4	0
4	2012	81.2	2
5	2010	81.1	2
6	2002	80.9	0
7	2013	80.7	0
8	2011	80.5	3
9	2016	79.8	0
10	2018	79.4	0
-	2006	79.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	80.7	0
2	2011	79.8	0
3	2013	79.5	0
4	2022	79.3	0
-	2020	79.3	0
5	2019	78.8	0
6	1999	78.7	0
-	1993	78.7	0
7	2016	78.6	0
-	1983	78.6	0
-	1949	78.6	0
8	2015	78.4	0
-	2012	78.4	0
9	1994	78.1	0
10	1955	78.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	82.9	0
2	2010	82.8	0
3	1999	81.9	0
4	2019	81.5	0
5	2013	81.2	0
6	2022	81.1	0
-	2016	81.1	0
7	1955	80.9	0
8	1966	80.8	0
9	2006	80.7	0
10	1994	80.6	0
11	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
-	1952	80.4	0
12	2008	80.0	0
-	1993	80.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
-	2010	77.0	0
3	2020	76.9	0
4	2022	76.8	0
-	2019	76.8	0
5	1966	76.7	0
-	1955	76.7	2
6	2011	76.6	1
7	2012	76.4	0
8	2016	76.3	0
-	1983	76.3	1
9	1952	76.2	0
-	1949	76.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.6	0
2	2019	78.1	0
3	2013	78.0	0
-	2010	78.0	0
4	2020	77.7	0
5	2011	77.6	0
6	1994	77.3	0
7	2022	77.1	0
8	2016	76.8	0
9	1966	76.3	0
10	2012	76.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	80.6	0
2	2010	79.7	0
3	2022	78.3	0
4	2013	78.1	0
5	2011	78.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	0.50	0
2	2013	1.15	2
-	2002	1.15	0

[dWave]

I didn't realize July had no high temps below 80 at Central Park, and how rare that is. It hasnt happend since the 1940s..forgot the exact year.  I did once due to training t storms holding temps down that day. Split 99/66, avg 80 for the month with 12 90 degree days

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, dWave said:

I didn't realize July had no high temps below 80 at Central Park, and how rare that is. It hasnt happend since the 1940s..forgot the exact year.  I did once due to training t storms holding temps down that day. Split 99/66, avg 80 for the month with 12 90 degree days

 

All of our major stations set a new July record for the warmest July low maximum temperature. The only stations with a maximum under 80° were White Plains and Bridgeport. Even POU had their warmest low max at 83°.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	83	0
2	2010	82	0
3	1994	81	0
4	2006	80	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	81	0
2	1944	80	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	82	0
2	2020	79	0
-	2006	79	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	80	0
2	2011	78	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	80	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	76	0
-	2020	76	0
-	2010	76	0
-	2006	76	0
-	1985	76	0
-	1966	76	0

 

Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	83	0
2	2020	78	0
-	1955	78	0

 

 

 

[Rjay]

Crazy

[Stormlover74]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:22 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is hot and dry ala July 99

Turned out to be hotter and drier