snowman19 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 @bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like a Modoki La Niña event is developing: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(74/95) or +6. Month to date is 78.3[+1.1]. Should be 80.2[+2.7] by the 25th. Reached 85 here yesterday, but missed the rains. Rained overnight, say 11pm-6am. this morning. Today: 79-84, wind w. to s. to w. again, m.cloudy---rain?, 74 tomorrow AM. 74*(73%RH) here at 7am. 80* at Noon. 82* at 3pm. 83* at 4pm. Reached 84* at 6pm. 78*(89%RH) at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 The EPS temperature departure forecast for the rest of the month in °C would translate into at least +3 ° to 5° F across the area. So this means that several of our stations will finish with another top 10 warmest July. Since July is one of our fastest warming months, the bar for top 10 has been lowered when looking at the new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. Below are the necessary departures for our local stations to reach top 10 warmest July average temperatures. The numbers to the right are the current departures ahead of the warm up. EWR…+2.2…..+3.4 NYC...+2.1…….+1.1 LGA….+1.4….+0.6 JFK…..+1.9…..+1.5 HPN….+2.0…..+1.5 ISP……+0.9…..+0.2 BDR….+1.3……+0.2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 87° Tomorrow will see showers and thunderstorms, some of which can be heavy. Afterward, heat will return to the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 .20 last night not much but something Hoping for something Monday Going for day 6 of my heatwave today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 14 hours ago, uofmiami said: 1.49” in N Syosset. Had 1.10” earlier this afternoon within 15-20 minutes. East Setauket was Long Island rainfall leader yesterday at 2.27”. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-76 Station Name: Setauket-East Setauket 0.3 SSE Observation Date 7/17/2022 9:22 AM Submitted 7/17/2022 9:24 AM Gauge Catch 2.27 in. Notes -- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: East Setauket was Long Island rainfall leader yesterday at 2.27”. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-76 Station Name: Setauket-East Setauket 0.3 SSE Observation Date 7/17/2022 9:22 AM Submitted 7/17/2022 9:24 AM Gauge Catch 2.27 in. Notes -- OKX won it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 54 minutes ago, uofmiami said: OKX won it appears. That one hour deluge got them closer to normal July rainfall since the XMACIS records began there in 2012. Monthly Total Precipitation for UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Season Mean 4.22 4.22 2022 3.15 3.15 2021 6.48 6.48 2020 6.32 6.32 2019 2.97 2.97 2018 4.18 4.18 2017 3.22 3.22 2016 3.16 3.16 2015 1.34 1.34 2014 2.78 2.78 2013 4.26 4.26 2012 8.53 8.53 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 80/70 with 0.18 in the bucket. Transition into a much more humid then hot period underway with shot for some widespread storms and rain later in Monday evening and overnight into Tue. The heat is on Tue (7/19) with strong heat Wed (7/20) through Fri (7/21) as piece of the western oven pushes around the trough. Next weekend Sat (7/22) and into the following week looks to continue how with potential for another blast of stronger heat for a day or two early week of Mon (7/24) / Tue (7/25) Beyond there will see if the Western Atlantic Ridge pulls west for continued warmth or a brief trough between the next surge of heat to end the month. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: .20 last night not much but something Hoping for something Monday Going for day 6 of my heatwave today Yeah it was good to finally get a little rain last night. I was surprised that the batch of moderate rain in PA held together and gave us a period of moderate rain overnight last night. Picked up almost a quarter inch here too. Obviously only enough to help a little bit and we need much more. Today the activity will be very isolated, but it should be more widespread tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it was good to finally get a little rain last night. I was surprised that the batch of moderate rain in PA held together and gave us a period of moderate rain overnight last night. Picked up almost a quarter inch here too. Obviously only enough to help a little bit and we need much more. Today the activity will be very isolated, but it should be more widespread tomorrow. I meant to wake up at 2am and see if it was raining but it didn't happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I meant to wake up at 2am and see if it was raining but it didn't happen I don't blame you for not waking up for a minor event like that, lol. I was up late last night and 2am was about when I was trying to get to sleep, so I was glad to see it raining moderately out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 10 years ago we were in the middle of the second year in a row with record heat that would be challenged the following year. 11,12,13 peak heat this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 I'm totally on board for a hot week ahead. I'm also on board for numerous showers/storms today and tonight and most notably the likelihood of a line of storms busting through during the early morning hours Monday and a severe threat during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday with another storm possible Monday night. What I am questioning is the daytime heating hours on Monday. Several of models keep most of the action to our north and west over that time. It that is true temperatures could over-perform on Monday. While the old NAM has winds too southerly to allow that to mean much, the 3K has more westerly wind component along with the RGEM. In other words, upper 80s to perhaps 90 might not be out of the question for Monday prior to the severe threat later in the day and evening. The hottest days of the week as of now look to me to be Wednesday & Thursday. Central Park should pick up 4-5 more 90+ days this week bringing the monthly total to 8 or 9. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Not in our neck of the woods, but dewpoints in far northeastern North Dakota are into the mid 80s, including an 88 (accompanying heat index of 120). TWC had a segment on this. Some confluence of localized events is causing extreme humidity readings. If verified, it could be close to the highest dewpoint ever recorded in the US. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm totally on board for a hot week ahead. I'm also on board for numerous showers/storms today and tonight and most notably the likelihood of a line of storms busting through during the early morning hours Monday and a severe threat during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday with another storm possible Monday night. What I am questioning is the daytime heating hours on Monday. Several of models keep most of the action to our north and west over that time. It that is true temperatures could over-perform on Monday. While the old NAM has winds too southerly to allow that to mean much, the 3K has more westerly wind component along with the RGEM. In other words, upper 80s to perhaps 90 might not be out of the question for Monday prior to the severe threat later in the day and evening. The hottest days of the week as of now look to me to be Wednesday & Thursday. Central Park should pick up 4-5 more 90+ days this week bringing the monthly total to 8 or 9. WX/PT Agree and i think much like yesterday and today, any shot at 90 will be in areas that see enough sun. Yesterday New brnswck and areas in C/SW NJ got to 90 while EWR/NYC were cloudy and storming in the afternoon. Today much the same CNJ up in the upper 80s and other areas with more clouds in the low 80s. 850 temps are warmer tomorrow so that could help propel heat on any period of sunshine more than this weekend. As far as central part that inch of rain plus what we get today and Monday will replenish the vegetation and could keep the park even lower than typically on the borderline days (Tue 7/19) and Sat 7/23, Sun 7/24). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Drove home from PA. and the car thermometer went from around 80 in Byram to 88 passing Piscataway on 287...when I got home to Staten Island it was 83... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 54 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: Not in our neck of the woods, but dewpoints in far northeastern North Dakota are into the mid 80s, including an 88 (accompanying heat index of 120). TWC had a segment on this. Some confluence of localized events is causing extreme humidity readings. If verified, it could be close to the highest dewpoint ever recorded in the US. Here's Langdon, ND cava If accurate, Cavalier and Grafton also have DPs in the 80s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Hit 90. Making it day 6 of my heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 10 years ago we were in the middle of the second year in a row with record heat that would be challenged the following year. 11,12,13 peak heat this week. DFW is almost tied on the list with 2011 for the most 100° days by July 17th. Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Jan 1 to Jul 17 Missing Count 1 1980-07-17 30 0 2 1998-07-17 25 0 3 2011-07-17 23 0 4 2022-07-17 22 0 5 1978-07-17 18 0 - 1953-07-17 18 0 Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2011 71 0 2 1980 69 0 3 1998 56 0 4 1954 52 0 5 1956 48 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Taking a crack at guessing the high temps for the next 5 days beginning tomorrow for my area. Hot & humid will be the norm for a while. Mon. 7/18: 91 Tues. 7/19: 95 Wed. 7/20: 98 Thurs. 7/21: 98 Fri. 7/22: 93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 83°F with a dewpoint of 70 right now.. Woof the humid stuffed Sucked at work today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy, are likely tonight through tomorrow. Afterward, another spell of heat will develop. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach 100° at the height of the heatwave. Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that has continued to topple daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of Andorra, France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. Already, Hawarden reached 91° and London (Heathrow Airport) hit 87° today. The national UK record could be challenged or broken tomorrow and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -2.77. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.136 today. On July 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.987 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.057 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 Tropical airmass on Monday with PWATS over 2.00” and dewpoints in the mid 70s to fuel the convection. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Here's Langdon, ND cava If accurate, Cavalier and Grafton also have DPs in the 80s. Whatever is going on up there, one of the airports now shows a 90 degree dewpoint (ties all time US record), and another one shows a heat index of 130 with a dewpoint of 88. I'd be interested in what sort of local conditions are favoring such extreme humidity today. If this verifies, I cannot imagine what it must feel like to walk outside, and the amount of condensation that would occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tropical airmass on Monday with PWATS over 2.00” and dewpoints in the mid 70s to fuel the convection. WRF is showing a couple of rounds for some of us tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Northern Mid Atlantic... Pre-frontal surface troughing, extending from near the migratory low southward through the Mid Atlantic, likely will become the focus for the more prominent boundary-layer destabilization during the day Monday. The boundary-layer probably will become characterized by seasonably high moisture content, but lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be generally weak, and most guidance suggests that CAPE may not reach 1000 J/kg. However, a belt of 30-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer will potentially contribute to an environment conducive to organized convection given sufficient destabilization. It is possible that this could include a couple of supercells with a risk for tornadoes, particularly across the Poconos and Catskills into Hudson Valley vicinity by late Monday afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Going to be a hot week. Probably the hottest overall week of the year. Like clockwork 3rd week of July always bakes. In a few weeks we start the decline 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 7/17 New Brnswck: 89 TEB: 89 TTN: 88 ACY: 86 PHL: 86 BLM: 85 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 JFK: 84 ISP: 83 NYC: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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