July 2022

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

78/57 here.  Clouds hanging around this morning.  Pending on how much we clear out and get some period of full sun, temps may overperform forecasts but can just as easily under perform should clouds be persistent.  Mid / upper 80s today and through the weekend with storm/rain chances Sat nigh (7/16) / Sun (7/17) and again Mon (7/18) night into Tue (7/19).  Heat is on by Tue and through next Fri (7/22)  shot at mid /upper 90s.  As other mentioned if we stay clear the skies the limit on some potential record highs.  

Beyond there  Sat (7/23) and beyond - looks overall warm and likely to increase rainfall  and storm chances as humid regime builds in and the. Western Atl Ridge builds west and pieces of the western heat come east. 

Again, I think the models continue to overdo rainfall. Otherwise, I had started out with a prediction of 7 90+ days this month at Central Park and am now thinking we just might have a shot at their getting 8-10.

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

a beautiful summers day dew points in the mid 50's cant get any better then this for the middle of july..

bye bye

[NorthShoreWx]

I looked at the regional satellite yesterday while the thunderstorm was over the expressway just a few miles south of here.  At that time, the exhaust/cirrus blowoff from that cell on the visible satellite was just about to Boston!  Sorry I didn't save it 

[bluewave]

The coming higher dewpoints will allow the minimum temperature departures to catch up to the warmer maximum departures. 
 

[uofmiami]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The coming higher dewpoints will allow the minimum temperature departures to catch up to the warmer maximum departures. 
 

Did they always have LI as non-existent on the maps?

[Allsnow]

Dry begets dry….I’ll believe the rain is coming when it’s falling 

[psv88]

Having our block party tomorrow afternoon. Better not rain! I cannot fit 60 people in my house 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Did they always have LI as non-existent on the maps?

Unfortunately, that’s always the case with their maps. But we can use XMACIS2 for the individual stations. The sea breeze has kept the maximum temperatures down on Long Island so far. Places like White Plains and Danbury are having one of their warmest Julys for maximum temperatures. The Danbury record is shorter starting in 1998.

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	2010-07-14	87.3	0
2	2012-07-14	86.8	0
3	2022-07-14	86.0	0
4	2018-07-14	85.5	0
5	1999-07-14	85.0	5

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	1966-07-14	91.8	0
2	2012-07-14	88.3	0
3	2010-07-14	88.0	0
4	1993-07-14	87.6	0
5	1955-07-14	86.9	0
6	2018-07-14	86.4	0
7	2022-07-14	85.9	0
-	1994-07-14	85.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	1966-07-14	90.9	0
2	2010-07-14	87.8	0
3	1993-07-14	87.1	0
4	1999-07-14	86.9	0
5	2012-07-14	86.6	0
6	2019-07-14	86.5	0
7	1994-07-14	86.0	0
8	1974-07-14	85.7	0
9	2011-07-14	85.6	0
10	2018-07-14	84.7	0
-	2002-07-14	84.7	0
11	2013-07-14	84.4	0
12	2020-07-14	84.1	0
13	2014-07-14	83.6	0
-	1997-07-14	83.6	0
14	2022-07-14	83.5	0

[WestBabylonWeather]

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
WEST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY JULY 14, 
2022. THE STORM BROUGHT LOCALIZED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT TREE 
DAMAGE FROM LAKE RONKONKOMA EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SELDEN AND
CORAM AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR, OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS, PHOTOS, AND 
VIDEOS SUPPORT THE DAMAGE BEING CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT-LINE 
WINDS FROM SEVERAL MICROBURSTS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE 
WAS IN THE AREA OF SACHEM NORTH HIGH SCHOOL AND SMITH STREET, WITH
NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND SEVERAL TREE TOPS SNAPPED OFF. 
THIS DAMAGE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE IS CONSISTENT WITH
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 80 MPH. THERE 
WAS NO EVIDENCE OF ROTATION WITH THE STORM AND NO TORNADO SURVEY 
IS PLANNED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY WOULD LIKE 
TO THANK SUFFOLK COUNTY FIRE RESCUE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES FOR 
THEIR ASSISTANCE IN EXAMINING THE DAMAGE AREAS AS WELL AS TRAINED 
SPOTTERS, LOCAL MEDIA, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR DAMAGE REPORTS 
FROM THURSDAY EVENING. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
WEST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY JULY 14, 
2022. THE STORM BROUGHT LOCALIZED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT TREE 
DAMAGE FROM LAKE RONKONKOMA EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SELDEN AND
CORAM AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR, OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS, PHOTOS, AND 
VIDEOS SUPPORT THE DAMAGE BEING CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT-LINE 
WINDS FROM SEVERAL MICROBURSTS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE 
WAS IN THE AREA OF SACHEM NORTH HIGH SCHOOL AND SMITH STREET, WITH
NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND SEVERAL TREE TOPS SNAPPED OFF. 
THIS DAMAGE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE IS CONSISTENT WITH
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 80 MPH. THERE 
WAS NO EVIDENCE OF ROTATION WITH THE STORM AND NO TORNADO SURVEY 
IS PLANNED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY WOULD LIKE 
TO THANK SUFFOLK COUNTY FIRE RESCUE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES FOR 
THEIR ASSISTANCE IN EXAMINING THE DAMAGE AREAS AS WELL AS TRAINED 
SPOTTERS, LOCAL MEDIA, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR DAMAGE REPORTS 
FROM THURSDAY EVENING. 

The area I drove through last night definitely got rocked. Reminded me of what I saw after Isaias. A mile away though, nothing. Was a very localized event. 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The coming higher dewpoints will allow the minimum temperature departures to catch up to the warmer maximum departures. 
 

Yep, took a little while to get here, but the warm humid nights are back.

[wthrmn654]

Straight-line wind damage from several microbursts confirmed in west central Suffolk County on the evening of Thu July 14, 2022. A severe thunderstorm brought localized areas of significant tree damage from Lake Ronkonkoma E-NE through Selden & Coram area. Please read our summary report at the following link
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202207151641-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

[wthrmn654]

Now yes it's the gfs but it has backed down on some of the days it has been showing big heat for and a few days increased the heat.... coin toss at the stage of the game on the outcomes view. Until its actually hot and for a few days,I will be hesitant on what is being said. 

Actually looking past the 23rd or so now it's showing just 90-95s for many areas almost every day,  though the 31st, a flip from previous runs. 

 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

91 imby...day 4 of my heatwave

 

Yesterday i hit 91 for first official heatwave

 

Lets see if more overperformance happens on Saturday and Sunday

 

[HailMan06]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

bye bye

The arrival of our relatively new tropical season.

[wthrmn654]

Gefs  is 85-92 roughly speaking

Eps is 85-95 the 19th to about the 24th or 25th roughly before cooling down a little with 85-90 rest of month.  

 

Can't really say if that's improvements or not per say but it's a bit more sustainable versus the rest of year

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all begin to finally weaken the blocking pattern during the 2nd half of July. So the 50/50 low confluence that has been keeping us dry is set to relax. While many may not get as much rain as they want, the second  half of July should have more rain than than the first half. So we may get just enough rain to keep us off the top 10 driest list for July.

It continues to look like several surges of 95°+ heat between July 20th and 31st. The local warm spots may be able to make a run on 100°. 

 

It also looks like the calls back in the spring for a hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season may be in some jeopardy: 

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It also looks like the calls back in the spring for a hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season may be in some jeopardy: 

The Euro is going for 15 named storms with the bulk of the activity from the Gulf to the Carolinas near the warmest SST anomalies.

[doncat]

83° here today with a se wind all day.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will continue to average near or above normal through at least the weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week. Before then some rain is possible from scattered thunderstorms from Sunday night into Tuesday.

Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that was been toppling daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. The national UK record could be challenged or broken on Monday and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +6.77.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.067 today.

On July 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.777 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.527 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/15

PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
EWR: 86
ACY: 85
JFK: 84
ISP: 82
BLM: 81

[CIK62]

Scary T's on the way starting Tuesday and going till August?

The next 8 days are averaging  84degs.(75/94) or +6.     {The following 8 days after this as of today are averaging 89degs.(78/100)! or +11!}    July could end at 83+ with this....so NUTS 2 U My Little GFS Darling.

Look.   Even the Mellow Yellow of the GEFS has an unending HW:

Reached 85 here yesterday.

Today:  79-84, wind e. to s. to w., m. cloudy, some rain late?, 71 tomorrow AM.

75*(91%RH) here at 7am.      80* at 11am.       82* at 2pm (no rain here---been watching radar for over 3hours.       Reached 85* at 5pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 87°

More heat could return to the region early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

[bluewave]

Next week looks like and unusual similarity between our pattern and the one in the UK. Both heatwaves are getting an assist from a closed low to the west pumping in the heat from a drought region. While the one in the UK can deliver all-time heat, parts of our area may approach 100°. These type of concurrent  heat waves are becoming more common.

850 mb temperatures in excess of +20C in both regions

 

 

 

[psv88]

So much for a rain free day! SOB

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Next week looks like and unusual similarity between our pattern and the one in the UK. Both heatwaves are getting an assist from a closed low to the west pumping in the heat from a drought region. While the one in the UK can deliver all-time heat, parts of our area may approach 100°. These type of concurrent  heat waves are becoming more common.

850 mb temperatures in excess of +20C in both regions

21z Monday

21z Wednesday 

 

 

If the Euro is correct, parts of the metro will hit 100 degrees on Wednesday. It looks like an absolutely brutal day to be outside

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the Euro is correct, parts of the metro will hit 100 degrees on Wednesday. It looks like an absolutely brutal day to be outside

Yeah, the usual warm spots around the region on the Euro make a run on 100°. Even the Long Island North Shore goes over 95°. But the highest dewpoints should be closest to the coast.

[psv88]

Flash flood warning for queens and Nassau. Those mostly sunny forecasts from a few days ago not looking great. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the usual warm spots around the region on the Euro make a run on 100°. Even the Long Island North Shore goes over 95°. But the highest dewpoints should be closest to the coast.

If the sea breeze holds off and isn't too strong, we'll easily make it to the high 90s up here. And it will be more brutal than anywhere-we get the heat plus the humidity. On that map at least NJ's dewpoints will stay in the 60s.

On another note, argh about the storms yet again. Huntington village/Halesite getting nailed, maybe a drop or two here. 

[bluewave]

The higher dewpoints and mid 70s SSTs are doing their job. Some spots have picked up over 1.00” this morning. We’ll probably see more widespread convection in the coming days.