July 2022

[IrishRob17]

4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Rubber bands snapping and all that... It's going to take a 65" 12 month period to get me back to average to compensate for the last 12 dry months. 

[wthrmn654]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and continued very warm. However, readings will continue to average near or above normal through at least the coming weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week.

In the South and Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Phoenix registered a high temperature of 113°. Austin reached 108°, which tied the record set in 2020. Austin has now recorded five consecutive record-tying or record-breaking highs. It also has recorded a record 4 consecutive days with highs of 108° or above. Galveston saw its 11th consecutive day on which the record high minimum temperature was tied or broken.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +8.68.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.363 today.

On July 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.652 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal).

 

Does the ecmwf seasonal forecast not update?  Its a broken record so far. Just curious

[psv88]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

That bullseye is from the tropical storm last year that flooded the Poconos 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 94 here.

High for the day on Tuesday was 95

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

That bullseye is from the tropical storm last year that flooded the Poconos 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  83degs.(74/93) or +5.

Reached 87 here at 2pm. yesterday.

Today:  82-87, wind n., p. sunny, 70 tomorrow AM.

75*(81%RH) here at 7am.      77* at 9am.       80* at 10:30am.       82* at Noon.      85* at 2pm.       86* at 3pm.       88* at 3:30pm.   then went down to 80* about 6pm and now at 8:00pm it is 89*!

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 92°

Tomorrow will be very warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Does the ecmwf seasonal forecast not update?  Its a broken record so far. Just curious

The seasonal forecast updated on July 1. It updates once per month.

[IrishRob17]

Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell

At least long Island is white lol

[Volcanic Winter]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter: 

 

 

What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. 
 

Thanks!

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell

 

We got officially included in the D0 dry category today.

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Expect temps to overperform for the next few days. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Expect temps to overperform for the next few days. 

I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. 

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

the 12z CAMs got better with instability today and have sea breeze storms popping up over the metro this afternoon

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. 
 

Thanks!

It all comes down to how much blocking we get. The La Niña influence during the winter is a SE Ridge/WAR pattern. The 20-21 La Niña featured strong blocking that merged with a piece of the WAR east of New England.This allowed 40”+ at Newark. Last winter the SE Ridge/WAR was the dominant  pattern. So only parts of Long Island had record January snowfall with the progressive +PNA +AO. The 17-18 La Niña had more blocking than 16-17 so it was snowier. 11-12 was a disappointment since the +EPO ran the table. Our last La Niña when the blocking erased the SE Ridge influence was 10-11 with 60”+ at Newark in just 33 days. It was also the last time we had a cold La Niña winter. 

[SACRUS]

84/64 here.  Skies mostly clear or clearing.  Temps today may overperform and get some folks their first official heatwave. Overall warm the next 5 - 7 days and we will see where the Western Atlantic Ridge winds up by Mon (7/25).  Some strong heat next week between Tue (7/19) and Fri (7/22).  Storms and rain chances Sun / Tue next week.

[SACRUS]

Storms fired up near the Jersey Shore around 1000AM.  We'll see if we get some popup down pours this afternoon.

[SACRUS]

 

 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Storms fired up near the Jersey Shore around 1000AM.  We'll see if we get some popup down pours this afternoon.

the merged outflow/sea breeze front should be a catalyst 

[forkyfork]

here comes dewpoint season <3

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. 
 

Thanks!

There's a lot of variability for La Nina cases. 1998-99 had low snowfall and widespread warmth. 2016-17 had above normal snowfall. We're also poised to have a third consecutive La Nina winter, so there are few, if any, relevant cases. Whether or not blocking develops and is sustained will be critical to snowfall prospects.

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We got officially included in the D0 dry category today.

 

 

Northeast Drought Summary

Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the region. Temperatures for the week were coolest along the northern portions of New York into Maine, where temperatures were 4-5 degrees below normal. Pennsylvania had the warmest temperatures, with departures of 1-2 degrees above normal. The dryness in the region has allowed for drought expansion this week with a new area of moderate drought in western New York and a new area of severe drought in eastern Massachusetts. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded over much of northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey and into southeastern New York. Moderate drought was expanded in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Abnormally dry conditions were adjusted in southern New Jersey and a new pocket of abnormally dry conditions was added to southern Delaware. Most of the dryness was short-term in nature, but there were immediate declines to river and streamflow levels throughout the region.

[wthrmn654]

[donsutherland1]

Central Park has its first heatwave of the year.

[dWave]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. 

WX/PT

89 at 2pm..they should easily at this point, but this is around the time they sometimes flatline or drop slightly while the rest keep climbing.

Dry periods are the few times they keep up better with surrounding stations so I think they will..

[dWave]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park has its first heatwave of the year.

Well that settles that.

 

I'm at 90, 6th of the month

 

 

[Brian5671]

Euro has a decent dose of rain for Sunday

[uncle W]

we need a rainmaker...

How a rainmaker saved NYC from drought — and became public enemy No. 1 (nypost.com)

[winterwx21]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro has a decent dose of rain for Sunday

Hopefully the Euro will be right about that. It's has been a long time since I've seen it this dry here. The grass is brown and leaves are coming down from the trees. The plants in my vegetable garden look stressed even though I'm watering every day. We desperately need rain. Hopefully sunday, but you have to be skeptical in a super dry pattern like this.