A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: hoping to pop a shower here later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 Blessed with heat on my bday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Supercell over Lake Co has had a bit of loose rotation, and is about to move out over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Some notable bust potential with temps around here on Saturday. Seems like there is an increasing signal in guidance for convection in the LOT cwa on Fri night into Sat. Questions revolve around the path, duration and how much overturning it will cause. In a most extreme case with robust convection lingering into a good part of Saturday, temps would struggle to recover out of the 80s. On the other hand, if convection doesn't materialize for some reason or misses north, then the thermal profiles that would be in place on Sat would result in highs deep into the 90s. Probably have to go with a middle ground solution as of now with some morning convection but enough of a recovery for highs of 90+This is the least surprising possibility of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Beautiful best climo night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This is the least surprising possibility of the year. I wonder what's more likely. ORD hitting 90 or STL hitting 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 I wonder what's more likely. ORD hitting 90 or STL hitting 105. That’s a good one.I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two.Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That’s a good one. I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two. Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick. That's why I picked 90 and 105... it's a tricky one. 00z HRRR actually has both things happening, as much of the convection passes south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Long range GFS seems to really be sniffing out the potential heat wave. Obviously, unlikely and a long way out. But it did show 18z GFS temperatures in Michigan peaking at 109F (there were actually several days in a row where parts of the state were at or above 105F) and 106F in Ontario. These are 2 PM EDT temperatures... probably a good chance the high would be 1 or 2 degrees above those readings. All-time record for Michigan is 112F and Ontario 108F, so that's kind of intriguing to see on a 2+ week model. Wonder what it's seeing to come up with such high readings? Prompted to me to check Twitter, but I didn't see any mention of the long range GFS. I did notice a number of Tweets from earlier in the month about the long-range GFS showing 40-42C in the UK. It was way early with the potential, but it actually happened. I'd say that's absolutely incredible that the GFS was able to sniff out the potential of a heat wave shattering the national record weeks in advance, even if the timing was way off. Absolutely astounding, really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 It's not going to hold all through Sunday, but temps on Sunday morning look really torchy in a zone out ahead of the cold front with very warm air aloft and winds staying up. Models verbatim have widespread 80s still at 4 am central time, not just in some localized urban core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Cedar Rapids hasn't hit 90º since July 5th. Our hottest days this week only hit 88º. We have one more chance on Saturday. The rest of the month currently looks <90º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Final high temps for Thursday across the area... 94 MDW 92 ORD 91 RFD 92 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 20 - MDW17 - RFD15 - Ex-Home13 - Current Home12 - ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Been in the 90s everyday down here in FL this week, with at least one storm per day. The lightning down here is nuts, even on the wussy storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 muggy summer weekend with intermittent storm chances, can't ask 4 much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 Who do I have to pay to get the 15z RAP to verify tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Marginal risk szn. Microburst hit the St. Joe/Benton Harbor, MI area hard last night. https://wsbt.com/news/local/crews-working-on-restoring-power-from-thursday-night-storms Had a downpour IMBY...sorry, no video of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 We picked up quite a bit from the storms last night here in northern indiana. I'm in the process of acquiring a new stratus gauge so I didn't get any readings but other sources said 3 - 3.5" over the span of two hours. Really torrential rain. At one point I looked down to see it flooding into the warehouse around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 see if LOT can verify for tonight. Great write ups as always, though have struggled with verification. Convection ain't easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 53 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: We did not have quite as much cloud cover down here this evening... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Don't know what they're smoking, but NWS dropped forecast highs for today down to the mid to upper 80s while issuing a Heat Advisory for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Getting slammed, v sick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 We got teased with plenty of lightning and a constant light rumble for an hour or two, but barely any rain fell as the storms mostly passed just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Baum said: see if LOT can verify for tonight. Great write ups as always, though have struggled with verification. Convection ain't easy. it's a beautiful thing. And now clearing out as I speak....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 bonus garden variety pour down with billowing cumulus, splotches of blue sky, and drops the size of baseballs. I still believe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 On 7/22/2022 at 6:05 AM, A-L-E-K said: muggy summer weekend with intermittent storm chances, can't ask 4 much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2022 Author Share Posted July 23, 2022 98 at STL. They had a high of 101 yesterday and are currently well ahead of where they were at this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2022 Author Share Posted July 23, 2022 104 at STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2022 Author Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 104 at STL That is their hottest temp in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: That is their hottest temp in 5 years. your so desperate for raging heat now you've moved your observation posts from Midway to St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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