Hoosier Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 Can ya believe that the 4th of July is one week away? We have been talking a bit about how it's looking like more frequent rain chances than what has been observed in recent times. But for a display of how that can go "wrong", take a look at the 6z GFS. More rain chances, but essentially targeting a similar corridor with the better rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 There is a pretty good model signal for some organized storm activity early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Lock it in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Yep, looking soggy and stormy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Lock it in cool, goes south of me like usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Cooler weather for the most part to start off the first part of the month up this way. Rains have not been an issue here, doing just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Lock it in Light stratiform zzzzzz signal. Nudge it north please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 Could get a good swath or two of rain near/south of I-88/I-80 today. Don't expect widespread heavy rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 LOT radar looks a little interesting. Can see the lake breeze boundary crashing southwest while the area of rain/storms moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 The radar looks like heavy rain may be more widespread than the cams were predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Latest MKX AFD... Quote .LONG TERM... (Issued 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022) Saturday through Thursday: As the holiday festivities ramp up through the weekend, Saturday is looking similar to today as high pressure continues to build into the Western Great Lakes Region with temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and mostly dry conditions. However with the upper-level low meandering across the Hudson Bay region to our north, the deterministic models all prog a ripple of mid-level vorticity to round the base of the trough and work across the region. Some hi-res models indicate that this ripple could spur a few showers across portions of east-central WI in the afternoon, but given the lack of additional dynamical support and drier low-levels, any activity looks to be on the lighter side. We will start to see some warmer temps into Sunday as the high slides east and southerly flow increases. There could be another shortwave trough rounding the base of the main trough bringing another chance at some isolated showers with a rumble of thunder or two. Overall, there is a potential for some isolated showers and cannot rule out some thunder on Saturday and Sunday, but confidence remains low and if anything does end up developing, it does not look to be enough to wash out any outdoor plans this weekend. However we need to continue to keep an eye on Independence Day as there continues to be a signal for more impactful shower and thunderstorm activity as a potent mid-level shortwave trough treks across the Central Plains into the area on Monday aligning with low-level WAA and a surface warm front. Although uncertainty remains at this time given the run to run variability and timing differences, the GFS/ECMWF solutions are trending closer toward each other compared to previous forecast. The main factor in this setup will essentially fall on placement of the shortwave trough and where the surface warm front set ups. If things end up aligning over southern WI, then the general idea is for afternoon/evening storms develop across northern IA/southern MN and track eastward along the warm frontal boundary. Additionally with GEFS/EPS members hinting of instability values approaching 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear trend on the higher side, cannot rule out some increased thunderstorm activity. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains, but it bears watching over the next few days. Otherwise, an active weather pattern looks likely for the remainder of next week as upper-level northwesterly flow sets up over the regional as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. This pattern will likely result in a series of shortwave troughs overrunning the ridge and bring daily thunderstorm chances to southern WI. Wagner Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 convection just toys with forecasters. Looks like were staying dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 convection just toys with forecasters. Looks like were staying dry. POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 Got a pretty decent drink earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Same here. Radar estimates between 0.6" and 0.8" in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Apparently significant wind damage just occurred half hour ago in Fremont OH just west of Sandusky. Getting reports of lots of damage across the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Got a pretty decent drink earlier. 4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Same here. Radar estimates between 0.6" and 0.8" in my neck of the woods. Another whiff here. The afternoon convection fired up one county north and then zipped to the northeast. It did push out a boundary though. The boundary moved about two counties south of me when it fired up for the evening convection. So still parched here. Maye tomorrow, or the next day, or the next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 15 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising. was moreso referring to how complicated and difficult it is to time these storm clusters even more than 6 -8 hrs out. And sure enough LOT alluded to it in this mornings AFD " AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE." looks like a busy next week from here so it'll be interesting to see how it pans out. Finally caved and rolled out the sprinkler yesterday in an effort to save the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 The Castro guy out of the LOT office is fantastic. Just trekked through some od the midwest AFD's regarding next week. Superb. Perhaps the best I've seen.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Guest said: The Castro guy out of the LOT office is fantastic. Just trekked through some od the midwest AFD's regarding next week. Superb. Perhaps the best I've seen. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk He really is great, and not just saying that because he posts here. The time and effort he puts into the AFDs speaks for itself and is always appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Speaking of LOT, I have to share the graphic they posted on their Facebook page tonight. Of course, the replies are peppered with comments about being attacked by boomerang pizzas and jalapeno poppers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Actually tagged 90 at a few isolated locations across the area today, including the world-renowned ex-home and at DPA. 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD13 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Real best climo days, occasional mcs chances and lake cooling into the upper 70s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Looks like some decaying Iowa sloppy seconds this morning, a miss northeast this evening with the main event, and then very hot tomorrow. Prob another 96-98 for the area, with 110 heat indicies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 4, 2022 Author Share Posted July 4, 2022 HRRR is an inferno south of the convective influences tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 A band of 1-2" of rain tracked just south of me this morning (the same corridor that received 3-5" in late June). I got 0.44". That should be it for us until at least Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Dark as twilight out there right now with thunder growing louder. Heavy rains about to move in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 should I water the flowers? Was hoping for a good soaking, but the board optimism seems to waning a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now