Cold Miser Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Probably? Yikes let's hope it's way overdone. Windham / Columbia the place to be for jackpot temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Yeah the EPS more realistic. But, that’s hot for an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: DIT installing additional units! His install team is already working on it. End of July Special for members of American Weather -10% off all AC units and free top-notch installation by a team of pros. Be sure to type in Tolland in the offer section to receive the offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 ....and he has the Big Boy AC unit in the truck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Low of 54F Up to 64/56 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Never forget 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Those 2m temps would smash many all time SNE records. Selling but worth watching You’re not buying 104° at Augusta Maine? Can always adjust up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We were at Second in Middletown. We did feel the wind change suddenly and the clouds kinda messed up the day. I was watching sat and radar thinking it might even rain. Cleared out decently as we were leaving to drive through Newport (our daughter had a friend who had never been there) Sunny all morning until that wind shift but still warm. Very sunny late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Never forget 90 ended up the high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 I believe the warm signal, but I’m in show me mode for anything interesting. Boring begets boring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Looks like the next bust is tomorrow. Forgot about that bust potential. Week flew by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like the next bust is tomorrow. Forgot about that bust potential. Week flew by You sound like me by the end of January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the EPS more realistic. But, that’s hot for an ensemble. I'm sure it will be hot...maybe even worse than hell week, last week...but that 108 degree crap is model fiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Never forget Not that there is any argument ... but, that was same GFS version that also tried so hard to sell 39/31, while 3+" of liquid would fall in a nor'easter earlier that March. The rain worked out, but the temperature's were 32.1/32.1 just were all winter ptype lovers 'wanted' it, but most importantly... what should happen when it's raining so hard we're under water.. The twp ends of that may seem unrelatable ..and seeing as virtually no one knows about model tooling... other than .0000000001% of humanity, it certainly is inCREdibly germane, too Lol. No, but that March, and then the latter July modeling fun above, they were both indicative of the same glaring issue in that particular version. It was really bad with lower tropospheric thermodynamics. So bad in fact it was as though the modelers left out a subroutine somewhere. Jesus, and left the lower levels unresolved right through beta and into production. Whatever the reason, it hugely effected the model's performance in multi-faceted f-up ways. It was embarrassing. It may sound kind of corny but ... the 2018 version of the GFS vs this version running now, a 110 F lala range number is still going to be more believable now. How much so... about 25% ...hahaha. Like, 2018 = 0% clue. 2022 = 25% ...and yes, that's intuitively even generous buuuut... We live in the era of synergistic heat waves, and as we've both and all have observed, we have not experienced one of those in the OV/NE/and upper MA region(s). And they gotta start somewhere... But rest assured... that still leaves 75% in this proof of concept missive that it won't do that. There are other moving aspects... I agree with the higher confidence for a warmer than normal period... I'm not seeing any issue with WPC's 80 to 90th %tile for doing so, as per their last risk assessment. Seeing as that is the case, and the synergy shit's still out there... heh. If we wind up with substantially more than 94/71, I'm not going surprised. Just trying to be open minded, but doing so based on reasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Just feel like all guidance has been overdoing the heat past d5. I think it’s a signal for heat, but it’s usually a safe bet to slice and dice the numbers. I wouldn’t mind a July 1911 stretch although my chickens would struggle. Might be tolerable if dews remained modest as in that mega-torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Kinda nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Water was so warm. The water couldn't be any colder on the south shore. SW winds flip the water and we get 59 degree ice bath . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 SST's are 80 along the latitude of Atlantic City. Of course, you'd need a tropical system to begin with and the perfect set up, but that doesn't scream weakening until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, amarshall said: The water couldn't be any colder on the south shore. SW winds flip the water and we get 59 degree ice bath . Recent article I saw on it from Matt Noyes. If you want warm water come to the sound. Water temps have been around 80 for the last 2 weeks here. https://www.nbcboston.com/weather/stories-weather/why-is-the-ocean-water-so-cold-near-the-north-shore-this-summer/2776675/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, amarshall said: The water couldn't be any colder on the south shore. SW winds flip the water and we get 59 degree ice bath . Not sure where they are measuring but supposedly coastal waters near Newport RI are at 72F today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: SST's are 80 along the latitude of Atlantic City. Of course, you'd need a tropical system to begin with and the perfect set up, but that doesn't scream weakening until late in the game. It also depends how deep the warm layer is...If it's 80F through 200' of depth that's a lot better for maintaining TC strength than if it's, say, only 40-50' deep. Although since systems are usually trucking along at MA/SNE latitudes I don't really know if upwelling would still able to affect the storm as it passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Ds' 8.5 thru 10 on this GEFs mean ( 12z ) may not get us into the tallest heat ( or edges...), but it sure looks like a textbook MCS streamlining. Static WNW 500 mb flow with SW flow riding up underneath coming right out of that heat dome. It's been quite a while since we had an MCS ...and I don't count that weird wind bomb thing last October or the year before -whenever that was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 Yeah, looks like a good setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Gfs op ripping Ricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not sure where they are measuring but supposedly coastal waters near Newport RI are at 72F today But That's south coast not south shore. I'm wondering why SW winds would create cold water on the south shore, it's an offshore breeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Euro too again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro too again It's so far out in time that these bodily shifts west and east with the ridge nodal axis has to be acceptable, too. This rendition builds it over Iowa, but like you noticed, still 850mb +22Cs skirt over SNE. Until the telecon stops concertedly correcting the PNA from +1.5 SD all the way down to .-5 SD ( total of 2 SD!) between D's 6 and 12, I'm gonna go ahead and assume that we're still in the game for major heat departures. These models sometimes do this ... They might sniff out an early long lead risk idea, then it seems it's a week of invention trying to come up with any plausible excuse not to succeed the original risk idea... Only to bring it back once they've run the gambit of failed offsets. It's more noticeable in big winter storms.. We'll see, but the telecons say not to let guard down "Still in the game" is not forecast, mind us... Just that the NAO is also rising, which is a better marker for lifting the westerlies in latitude over the EC ..so mixing PNA mode change up together tells me that these recent runs are both suspect. That and that 9 days out thing - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, Whineminster said: But That's south coast not south shore. I'm wondering why SW winds would create cold water on the south shore, it's an offshore breeze Right. Understood that. The article that Noyes did shows it well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, Whineminster said: But That's south coast not south shore. I'm wondering why SW winds would create cold water on the south shore, it's an offshore breeze Like Amarshall said it flips the water. Brings the cold stuff up from deeper waters (I guess?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's so far out in time that these bodily shifts west and east with the ridge nodal axis has to be acceptable, too. This rendition builds it over Iowa, but like you noticed, still 850mb +22Cs skirt over SNE. Until the telecon stops concertedly correcting the PNA from +1.5 SD all the way down to .-5 SD ( total of 2 SD!) between D's 6 and 12, I'm gonna go ahead and assume that we're still in the game for major heat departures. These models sometimes do this ... They might sniff out an early long lead risk idea, then it seems it's a week of invention trying to come up with any plausible excuse not to succeed the original risk idea... Only to bring it back once they've run the gambit of failed offsets. It's more noticeable in big winter storms.. We'll see, but the telecons say not to let guard down "Still in the game" is not forecast, mind us... Just that the NAO is also rising, which is a better marker for lifting the westerlies in latitude over the EC ..so mixing PNA mode change up together tells me that these recent runs are both suspect. That and that 9 days out thing - LOL EPS is 582 thickness on the mean. That’s nuts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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