bristolri_wx Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Part 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 1 month after +WPO is stronger than this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Another day with many sites in C/NNE seeing RH under 35-40%. 84/53 up here for 34% but winner looks like Newport, VT with 82/47 for 29%. MHT 85/53 for 33%. In SNE, there’s LWM at 87/55 for 33% RH, BED at 86/56 at 35%, FIT at 83/51 at 33%. Might be a bit before we get back to these levels, but the past 2-3 days have been nice. Can see the dews starting to move in from the south, CT and SE MA looked more humid today than elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 30s and 40s? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 19 hours ago, bristolri_wx said: 30 days of high heat in the midwest according to the 30 day GEFS... not as much for us... I dunno... I'd call that pretty hot for us actually. Two reasons: One, that area of Nebraska/Kansas and SD are already sitting at a minimum of 925 mb as their surface sigma, and probably closer to 900 or 875 in the western half. Those anomalies over us mean more for a projected sfc temperature because being 1000 mb down to sea level, east of the Berk's/Mts means the adiabats are extended farther. d(t)/dp is a shallower differential out there compared to here... I mean it'll be hotter than here, because moreover to all that, the lowest 25 mb will also slope harder to the right due to superior land/air radiative transfer space.. but when I see +4.5 over climo at 850 mb, for PHL-LGA-BOS-PWM ...which are near sea level, that's really a huge signal. If climate is 16 to 13, were talking 21 to 18 which is 90+ from an ensemble mean in an aggregate spanning 30 days... that's actually pretty massive. Two, that being a mean ... also means that a few members are probably bizonker hot. The other aspect to the average is that it provides a general arena of enhanced probability for local time scaled extremes that lurch above(below) the longer term mean. Conclusion: You probably don't want to see that above if you are a temperate loving, heat hating sort. Which means it'll be too warm - most likely ... - if anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, the whole windows open and no AC don't go here. House was 77-78F and gross last night. What a swamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 30s and 40s? Was just thinking of your “rains every day” comments… big outdoor concert at Spruce Peak, whole thing set up for 600-800 people, linens on tables, chairs, etc. And the sky just unloaded water out of no where. Now they are scrambling to change out everything, just soaked after +RN. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Was just thinking of your “rains every day” comments… big outdoor concert at Spruce Peak, whole thing set up for 600-800 people, linens on tables, chairs, etc. And the sky just unloaded out of no where. Now they are scrambling to change out everything, just soaked after +RN. Mount Mansfaialeale 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mount Mansfaialeale I mean look at that precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 No wonder people grow and smoke so much weed there. It’s like a cannabis rainforest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Steined again. Some nice slow moving, heavy rain showers around and we got .02". Didn't even get wet under the trees. moist, but not wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Steined? Was it even supposed to rain today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Steined? Was it even supposed to rain today? There was no rain in the Greenfield forecast, that’s for sure. It was high overcast most of the day but zero rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 68/58. Nice summer night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Anyone else jonesing for a lightning fix? https://www.phoenix.gov/citycam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Anyone else jonesing for a lightning fix? https://www.phoenix.gov/citycam You may need to move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 BTV about Thursday, bolded bit caught my eye: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 The main focus of the long term period remains for Thursday. All ensemble data suggests potential for impactful weather, including thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall and possibly damaging wind. The low pressure system passing to our northwest looks to be the deepest to pass over this region during the 1979 to 2009 climatology for the July 11 - August 1 period, which suggests very large height falls that will steepen lapse rates and produce widespread thunderstorms that could tap into strong winds aloft. On Thursday afternoon, heavy rain potential is shown through PWATs in excess of 2 standard deviations above the climatological mean, MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg. The deepest moisture looks to push to our east ahead of the actual cold front, when potential for organized thunderstorms should peak. Probabilities of moderate (1000 J/kg) to high SBCAPE (> 2000 J/kg) are greatest in Vermont based on the most likely timing of the cold front. At the same time, the pressure gradient over the region and uniform southwesterly flow will produce impressive winds in the St. Lawrence Valley where the channeling supports enhanced non-thunderstorm gusts potentially in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 On 7/16/2022 at 7:14 AM, SouthCoastMA said: Monday looks north with the goods. once again, will have to rely on luck to scrounge up a tenth of an inch looks even worse today. keep the sprinklers running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 July 17 2022. Return of the Swampazz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 72/69 needed a towel after walk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 44 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 72/69 needed a towel after walk We 68/62 and overcast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Yeah it’s getting a bit dewy. Had a low of 55F and now the dews up to 61F. The moisture is coming. Interesting synoptic system tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 76/69 now. Summer is here baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 We may get a bit of a break last week of July before it warms again. Definitely a summer pattern. I’m sure it will rain at Mt Mansfield every day though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 76/69 now. Summer is here baby. Same here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Thursday looks about as close to ideal synoptic parametrics for supercell propagation through New England that I can recall observing in guidance. The Higher res Euro even has a right turning cluster of dense QPF nodes moving S of the environmental steering, from S VT to NW RI... GFS has the synoptic layout, but lacks the discrete resolution ..otherwise, they're identical. Not likely to survive the next 84 hours modeling perturbation but that's a helluva set up - for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Tomorrow ahead of warm front actually looks quite interesting, especially on HRRR. I just did a slot check for SNH, and we turn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 I'm wondering if short duration/ small scale areal coverage FF warns for excessive rare-rates Monday afternoon and evening should be considered? Low amplitude, but sufficiently lowering heights aloft evolving over the top of guidance blended 67 to 74 DP ...along and S of a RUT-PWM ...west to east through New England. May even be milk sun/modest heating in the morning. Looks like slow moving heavier results relative to DBZ. Any cores over 45 are likely to lower visibility to < 1/3 of mile with rapid ponding on roadways and/or low collecting points. Lesser considered factor ... erstwhile desiccated top soil types are actually primed for rapid run-off/responding low areas to 'fill' before absorption. I mean... these kind of events hit the evening news some how some times - may as well try to identify the framework ahead. Primary risk for that would be along White Plains NY to Concord NH with less SE and variable in the over-arcing mountainous terrain. I could see cells moving lower to moderate speed with rate rates exceeding rad returns given that ginormous PWAT air. More sfc heating than modeled? ...if a doable now cast, things might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Meh... clouds look hopelessly slammed shut from 15z onward ...but still, with DPs 73-ish and deep in the bottom of the sounding ( something we haven't seen much of this season btw -), it's still interesting with those modest hgt falls meandering over top in the afternoon. Damn...just a little more sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Nice post KLW, strongest low pressure for this climo period in 40 years moving to the NW ... sounds like potential somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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