July 2022 Disco/obs/etc

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A little excitement this evening right before the sun went down.

This absolute unit of a bear strolled through the backyard.  We see bears but this might've been the biggest yet.

It was close enough, and chill enough, to be able to get the real camera.  Could've rode this guy like a horse.

I will see your bear and raise you two hawks.
 

 

I’m actually not sure if they are hawks or Falcons, definitely not red tail hawks though.  Mom and youngster, daddy-o was up in a tree watching my every move. 

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I will see your bear and raise you two hawks.
 

 

I’m actually not sure if they are hawks or Falcons, definitely not red tail hawks though.  Mom and youngster, daddy-o was up in a tree watching my every move. 

Did they blow a seemingly locked lead in a super bowl? If not, then they can’t be Falcons. 

[mreaves]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A little excitement this evening right before the sun went down.

This absolute unit of a bear strolled through the backyard.  We see bears but this might've been the biggest yet.

It was close enough, and chill enough, to be able to get the real camera.  Could've rode this guy like a horse.

Better than my run in with wildlife tonight. We got home to find out that skunk sprayed somewhere really, really close to the house. And all the windows were open. Maybe living in a hermetically sealed house like DIT isn’t such a bad thing at all. 

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

A little excitement this evening right before the sun went down.

This absolute unit of a bear strolled through the backyard.  We see bears but this might've been the biggest yet.

It was close enough, and chill enough, to be able to get the real camera.  Could've rode this guy like a horse.

Big Ben from “Grizzly Adams”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

A little excitement this evening right before the sun went down.

This absolute unit of a bear strolled through the backyard.  We see bears but this might've been the biggest yet.

It was close enough, and chill enough, to be able to get the real camera.  Could've rode this guy like a horse.

Things been hitting the weight room.

Pats could use a big run stopping DT

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just checked the closest USGS observation well to my house (about 1-1.5 miles from me) and the last reading was late June.

Ground water levels were pretty much well within the norm, going back ten years.

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I will see your bear and raise you two hawks.
 

 

I’m actually not sure if they are hawks or Falcons, definitely not red tail hawks though.  Mom and youngster, daddy-o was up in a tree watching my every move. 

Pretty sure those are immature red tails.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Great day to go brewery hopping.  

[SouthCoastMA]

Monday looks north with the goods. once again, will have to rely on luck to scrounge up a tenth of an inch

[Ginx snewx]

58 another winner morning. 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Great day to go brewery hopping.  

Beer!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, the whole windows open and no AC don't go here.  House was 77-78F and gross last night.

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, the whole windows open and no AC don't go here.  House was 77-78F and gross last night.

Glad we don’t live there.  Dews are up but still got to 57F this morning 

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Things been hitting the weight room.

Pats could use a big run stopping DT

If he could learn the playbook, he's HOF material.  He looked as big as the monster roaming the NNJ community where I grew up.

[Torch Tiger]

Let's goooo!

Think the better shot for strong/severe storms comes Thursday as a
mid level lapse rates are around 6-7 degrees Celsius per km and
similar low level lapse rates to Wednesday. Will see MUCAPE values
between 1000-2500 J/kg with deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range
with the cold front moving in. Still a bit early to dive too deeply
into the exact hazards, but think there could be a severe risk here
especially given the latest CIPS Severe Analogs. Stay tuned to
future updates.

Threat Guidance for 20220716/0000 Run
Probability of Severe: 61.2%
Climatological Frequency of Severe: 8.72%
Significant Atmospheric Fields
1. 2m-mb TMP
2. 0-mb CAPE
3. 2m-mb SPFH
4. 500-mb TMP
5. 850-mb SPFH
Top 5 Most Similar Analogs
1. 19980725/0000
2. 19910718/0000
3. 20030715/0000
4. 20140709/0000
5. 20130828/0000

[powderfreak]

Had a low of 50F, comfortable sleeping weather looks like it’s on its way out.  Windows cool the place down to the low/mid 60s but looking like we’ll have to artificially cool it off soon.

Already 70/55.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Had a low of 50F, comfortable sleeping weather looks like it’s on its way out.  Windows cool the place down to the low/mid 60s but looking like we’ll have to artificially cool it off soon.

Already 70/55.

77/65

[powderfreak]

81/54

What a Saturday.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just thought I’d stop by and say F you stein. Hadn’t rained during the day here in 4 weeks. Having my daughters 5th bday party 50 people coming in 5 min and there is a stationary downpour over my house the past hour and a half. 

[tamarack]

Low of 48 this AM, now approaching 80.  My preferred summer wx, especially if precip is average or better.  (Running about 50% since May 1, local river closer to record low than to the 25th quartile level.)

[dendrite]

lol

[Typhoon Tip]

The 101 at 2am in southern MN on this 12 GFS totally happens all the time so yeah ...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just thought I’d stop by and say F you stein. Hadn’t rained during the day here in 4 weeks. Having my daughters 5th bday party 50 people coming in 5 min and there is a stationary downpour over my house the past hour and a half. 

Best to think of next week as entering a new regime - not that you're not...just sayn'.   Plan on the sensible and empirical weather as being pretty discernibly different than pretty much anything we've experience, across New England since the end of May. 

Vestiges of that 6 week pattern persistence appear to remain ..in the form of a flat nadir over SE Canada.  It's hard to know whether that is a pattern relaxation aspect, or if it is just the perennial North American pattern ( PNAP ) occurring in the absence of any other large scale forcing, ...but, in either reality ...we bleed in high DPs and occasional hot days, with [probably] noticeably muggy conditions in the in between days.  That'll probably take us into the end of the months as a character.  

A time during which - imho - the region will probably go some distance in recovering any perceived or measurable hydro deficits.   I mean ..we're looking at a bath of +PWAT anomalies stacked in the sky below 700 mb itching for triggers that the models don't pull beyond 30 or so hour very well. That comes down to butterflies f'n' ... who knows when they're horny.   If there anything like Weatherwiz, we'll be building Arks though.  If they're Kevin and his bestest BFFy, Epstein, ... we'll get healthy convective rain recovery while fielding diametric realism posts about the ongoing cracked Earth.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just thought I’d stop by and say F you stein. Hadn’t rained during the day here in 4 weeks. Having my daughters 5th bday party 50 people coming in 5 min and there is a stationary downpour over my house the past hour and a half. 

Terrible forecast by upton. They had mid 80s and mostly sunny this morning, with no mention of rain. No rain here but cloudy all day, no sun. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol

Brian check out that 2 am temps in that area...  Like a hundred degrees...  oy

[weathafella]

Reasonably prolonged warmth to heat is on the way.  Then again so is snow albeit 4-5 months later.

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian check out that 2 am temps in that area...  Like a hundred degrees...  oy

There’s actually a weenie 100° in there at 9z (4am (CDT). 

Fun to look at, but the gfs and euro have been going a little too bonkers past 5-7d. But this is probably what the dust bowl progs would’ve looked like.

Mixed up to H6 at 9z and close to getting into that 400mb mixed layer.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s actually a weenie 100° in there at 9z (4am (CDT). 

Fun to look at, but the gfs and euro have been going a little too bonkers past 5-7d. But this is probably what the dust bowl progs would’ve looked like.

You know ... last year, prior to the Pac NW bread baker event, I'm pretty sure the models began signaling absurdities, too.   Just sayn' 

These models ( you know this but for the average reader ) don't prog physically impossible solutions.  They may prog solutions harder to realize for other 'emergent' offsetting factors that are not really predetermine-able.. .but, something peculiar is going on out there because that 5-7d aspect you mention, where the physics and inputs they are working with are flagging that we're 'playing with fire' - you gotta wonder if we're counting on the unforeseeable emerging offset as protection.

Meanwhile, SE of Wales is objectively forecast to breach 40C this week... so, the era of the "syntergistic heat waves" is clearly upon us ...not having to wait to 2040 for the climate models to be right about that... get me started -

[radiator]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just thought I’d stop by and say F you stein. Hadn’t rained during the day here in 4 weeks. Having my daughters 5th bday party 50 people coming in 5 min and there is a stationary downpour over my house the past hour and a half. 

I wondered who was responsible for that blob on the radar that was mostly raining in-place 

Seems like it may have a slow northward drift but I doubt that I’ll see it here (at least not anytime soon)…

 

[bristolri_wx]

30 days of high heat in the midwest according to the 30 day GEFS... not as much for us...