July 2022 Disco/obs/etc

[dendrite]

Min 54.9F

Another BN morning. Times will be a'changin though.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

58 this morning. Crisp clean COC day. Wow

Unfortunate it has to end.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Unfortunate it has to end.

Before you know it it will be March again and the dews will start dropping.

[Damage In Tolland]

All bad things must end and this is one 

[dendrite]

EPS is deep summer right through d15...maybe a mild down mixed into the mean there, but overall warm to hot.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes  ... the recent era of merely above normal has to soon yield to even more above normal era  ha. 

But I'm not sure how hot it will be next week? Because that looks like more home grown heat. We don't really have a W/SW releasing synoptics lending to that period. The lows will elevate over recent noctural behavior, though.  66 to 72 DPs with zip advection means to cleanse the continent will tend to stifle nights from falling.  Need to think of next week as entering a regime change -

I mean it's not a novel insight ..the models indicate the humid week coming.  But the so-far July above normals at the SNE climate sites (+1 give or take a decimal) will likely no longer benefit from dry radiating desert nights.  So that'll likely gain starting Sunday until further notice.  

 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

And suddenly all coc ks were gone …

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And suddenly all coc ks were gone …

Hope you enjoy the low dews today.

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

EPS is deep summer right through d15...maybe a mild down mixed into the mean there, but overall warm to hot.

 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hope you enjoy the low dews today.

We all know he’s really enjoyed some of these beautiful days but just can’t bring himself to say it on here.  Needs to stay on-brand.

[weathafella]

Like clockwork-told you guys.  Second half of July here we go!  

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes  ... the recent era of merely above normal has to soon yield to even more above normal era  ha. 

But I'm not sure how hot it will be next week? Because that looks like more home grown heat. We don't really have a W/SW releasing synoptics lending to that period. The lows will elevate over recent noctural behavior, though.  66 to 72 DPs with zip advection means to cleanse the continent will tend to stifle nights from falling.  Need to think of it as a regime change -

I mean it's not a novel insight ..the models indicate the humid week coming.  But the so-far July above normals at the SNE climate sites (+1 give or take a decimal) will likely no longer benefit from dry radiating desert nights.  So that'll likely gain starting Sunday until further notice.  

 

 

 

As you know the "desert" airmasses giveth and taketh. Cooler nights and warmer days. In the end the means are what they are and then the humidity levels and amount of sun are the punctuation marks on the perceived sensibility. Creep up that humidity and we lose the cool nights, but it also takes more "work" to reach those higher temps.

But yeah, we're finally choking off that supply of cP air in QB at our latitude. Looks like the CAR region is still far enough north for glancing shots and that always leaves us with the potential to sneak in some near sfc backdoors (not necessarily temp but also humidity drops) cutting in underneath the upper level ridge.

So it's a regime change from our perspective, but I think it's more of a seasonal progression of the same pattern with everything trending a bit north...or at least the ridge waxing and the QB trough waning.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

As an aside... it seems to me just a-priori for the experience, that June was held down due mainly to dry air pulling the nighttime lows down, when actually ..the daily maxes were above normal.  It was a matter of averaging magnitude in either regard, and the lows won by like -.2 of whole degrees.  And even though July is, so far, modestly above normal, it is still being taxed by those desiccating air masses/ soil moisture memory.  That's kind of interesting, if true.  Because as we know... many of our above normal months ... dominating the anomaly vectors since the year 2000 really ... have been cited for having elevated lows in fact tainting the monthly means.  So we've actually just gone through 6 weeks of antithesis to that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hope you enjoy the low dews today.

Where are those 30’s and 40’s in SNE you forecasted on that Euro map earlier this week? 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an aside... it seems to me just a-priori for the experience, that June was held down due mainly to dry air pulling the nighttime lows down, when actually ..the daily maxes were above normal.  It was a matter of averaging magnitude in either regard, and the lows won by like -.2 of whole degrees.  And even though July is, so far, modestly above normal, it is still being taxed by those desiccating air masses/ soil moisture memory.  That's kind of interesting, if true.  Because as we know... many of our above normal months ... dominating the anomaly vectors since the year 2000 really ... have been cited for having elevated lows in fact tainting the monthly means.  So we've actually just gone through 6 weeks of antithesis to that. 

Like I just said, that dry air let the afternoon temps be higher than they would have been if there was more moisture in the air.

If we had these airmasses in a wet pattern we're probably talking a well below normal June given how low wetbulbs ran, but that's one of those "if my aunt had balls..." arguments.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where are those 30’s and 40’s in SNE you forecasted on that Euro map earlier this week? 

I said low 50s and maybe some 40s. ORH was 51F last hour and FIT is 49F. It's also 945am and we need to mix out a bit.

Friggin weenie.

[Baroclinic Zone]

72/61 at the homestead

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

As you know the "desert" airmasses giveth and taketh. Cooler nights and warmer days. In the end the means are what they are and then the humidity levels and amount of sun are the punctuation marks on the perceived sensibility. Creep up that humidity and we lose the cool nights, but it also takes more "work" to reach those higher temps.

But yeah, we're finally choking off that supply of cP air in QB at our latitude. Looks like the CAR region is still far enough north for glancing shots and that always leaves us with the potential to sneak in some near sfc backdoors (not necessarily temp but also humidity drops) cutting in underneath the upper level ridge.

So it's a regime change from our perspective, but I think it's more of a seasonal progression of the same pattern with everything trending a bit north...or at least the ridge waxing and the QB trough waning.

 

That's actually a good question 'implicit' in there, as to "weather" ( heh ..) that perceived/modeled circulation changes are pattern migration versus seasonal forcing ?  

I don't know..I've been trying to find pattern markers up stream ( Pac and Pac relay into N/A ...) and there are some -but not convincing.  It's very difficult to do that analysis at this time of year, with wave functions seemingly more 2ndary/emergent than propagating. 

I am noticing that WPC is also reacting to the Pac changes though by intensifying the cool anomalies over Alaska heading into the 2nd week.  That does fit the stretching flow along 50 N from the Berring Sea across the Continent.  

At the same time, ...yeah, the erstwhile seasonal bias has been an unusually fast polar jet lingering R-wave structures into the summer. It's why the persistency in SE Canada was so anchored.   God let that happen in November please - I love me some front loaded winters... What? 2010 since the last one?  They fit better with my own preferences - I hate winter after about Feb 10th every year - but am happy to play the hypocrisy card when a rare March bomb is in the betting pool.  I digress...  Anyway, that anomaly with the westerlies really should be seasonally forced out at some point.  

Maybe the two aspects are not mutually exclusive events.  Lord am I a nerd

[CoastalWx]

Toes in the water, ass in the sand pattern coming up. 

 

Ray may need to be extra careful next week not to wake the little ones up when the toilet seat falls off his ass.

[dendrite]

On 7/1/2022 at 1:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Dews into the 70’s now in SNE. Locked in for awhile 

[Chrisrotary12]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And suddenly all coc ks were gone …

Only took 2 months more than forecasted.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only took 2 months more than forecasted.

Some have been installed since April. Such a shame to have the windows closed over the last 3 months.

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toes in the water, ass in the sand pattern coming up. 

 

Ray may need to be extra careful next week not to wake the little ones up when the toilet seat falls off his ass.

G's up hoes down?

[Cyclone-68]

Good. Now let’s get to work on the tropics 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toes in the water, ass in the sand pattern coming up. 

 

Ray may need to be extra careful next week not to wake the little ones up when the toilet seat falls off his ass.

I don't think they will hear it all the way from Africa.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think they will hear it all the way from Africa.

OH...  probably not then.

[weatherwiz]

Hoping for a few severe chances this week. Monday/Thursday could offer some. Don't think as fun as Wednesday though unless bulk shear trends stronger. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an aside... it seems to me just a-priori for the experience, that June was held down due mainly to dry air pulling the nighttime lows down, when actually ..the daily maxes were above normal.  It was a matter of averaging magnitude in either regard, and the lows won by like -.2 of whole degrees.  And even though July is, so far, modestly above normal, it is still being taxed by those desiccating air masses/ soil moisture memory.  That's kind of interesting, if true.  Because as we know... many of our above normal months ... dominating the anomaly vectors since the year 2000 really ... have been cited for having elevated lows in fact tainting the monthly means.  So we've actually just gone through 6 weeks of antithesis to that. 

The low dews kept the “real feeling “ of the day time highs lower .  The amount of hours with dews over 70F really punctuates how unhumid it has been and that has a sizeable effect on how hot it feels during days . That really can’t be ignored when talking about how “less hot” it has felt during days 

86/53 much more comfy

than 85/68

[Torch Tiger]

Thursday will probably be a decent severe day.  

[powderfreak]

Definitely a warm look out there.  Days 4-8 here.  Thought not sure why one would use the GFS Ensembles for anything after they've been getting tossed and confused for the last two months.