dendrite Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Looks dewier for sure going into the heart of summer. It’s almost like expecting deep winter as we go into Jan and Feb. Shocking. My bananas and pawpaws will appreciate the humidity. I’m scared. Hold me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Definitely more of the summers of yore this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm not a space weather expert but looks like Aurora potential tonight. K index shows a storm is hitting right now Would like the Kp higher…Bz has been south for awhile, but it’s close to flipping. There’s a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely more of the summers of yore this year so far. It's been special. No denying it. Only a few Hill Folks rooted in superstition will even try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks dewier for sure going into the heart of summer. It’s almost like expecting deep winter as we go into Jan and Feb. Shocking. My bananas and pawpaws will appreciate the humidity. I’m scared. Hold me. Going to need more of these loops. The fluidity in the atmosphere is great in high-speed. That is pretty sweet on a meal-scale level. Wall of moisture rolling in waves and trying to overwhelm the area, and met with some resistance from the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. you just can’t resist . Good luck to you and yours You throw them out there, I bite. The hyperbole is a trigger . There's data to discuss. Remember back in the day, all posts would include some critical analysis. Personally, I think the long term is a hot/humid period breaking off from the central US ridge. It'll flow through toasty, and then a FROPA will cool/dry things out again. But not as much (step-up)... after that it gets hot and humid for a good period in the means. "Cold frontal passages" will wash out and weaken as we get into peak climo time for heat. You're going to get some good humidity coming, at the very least in waves. It's the climo time of year. Time-to-swim afternoons, pool, lake or river? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: You throw them out there, I bite. The hyperbole is a trigger . There's data to discuss. Remember back in the day, all posts would include some critical analysis. Personally, I think the long term is a hot/humid period breaking off from the central US ridge. It'll flow through toasty, and then a FROPA will cool/dry things out again. But not as much (step-up)... after that it gets hot and humid for a good period in the means. "Cold frontal passages" will wash out and weaken as we get into peak climo time for heat. You're going to get some good humidity coming, at the very least in waves. It's the climo time of year. Time-to-swim afternoons, pool, lake or river? Good pep talk for those struggling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Congrats SD. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 56⁰ another winner 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I may quit my job and open a talcum powder stand. Please let me know if you will be offering franchises...thanks... I want to open a franchise in Tolland and Billerica... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hammer going Hammertime on dews. Long duration stretch starts Tuesday as Coc ks go into hibernation till mid Oct i look forward to your forecast verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 EPS a bit more troughy on this run for us. I suppose I should stick to persistence and say more of the same with a nod to some warmer temps with dews from time to time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS a bit more troughy on this run for us. I suppose I should stick to persistence and say more of the same with a nod to some warmer temps with dews from time to time. This last day ... day and half of runs fits the 'model persistence' too. I mentioned this in posts over the last month of what's becoming extraordinarily persistent ( really! ), that about ever 3 or 4 days or so, the models try to sell the western ridge progression to toward 90W, toting along the SW/W release, only to replay this same tape over and over again of tamping the synoptic heat right back west in lieu of a bullying in a NW flow over eastern Canada. It's temping to get sold on that... I'm not helping lol. Because I've outlined how/why we can be historic. Maybe should have hammered the definition of rareness that needs to come along with that. But my god... All-time heat for consecutive days for Iowa to N. Texas under a ridge dome nearing 603 dm ... Forget New England's imby for a moment, one would have to be a sociopath not to be concerned, let alone just being in awe for the shear Meteorological significance should that take place. I mean the "core" of the highest results does tend to meander day to day but the general region over 100 (by a considerable margin!) sticks in place for 9 full diurnal maxes straight, with said core exceeding 110F ... With numerous 115?! That's basically a climate event... That is probably the first indirect if not direct empirical example of what climate models have been illustrating: sending future Kansian lat/lon region thru desertification. Bye-bye agricultural belt in however many decades...etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS a bit more troughy on this run for us. I suppose I should stick to persistence and say more of the same with a nod to some warmer temps with dews from time to time. I was told it was coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I was told it was coming. It will probably late this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will probably late this month. Long hot summer begins late July now. Ah well. My pool is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFs dews a week out? Good luck bro . Fight it if you want . Long hot summer locking in La la la lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 At least Tuesday still looks like we could see some storms but the timing of the front looks like it will SUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK once again. Anyways shear looks pretty strong and lapse rates may not be overly terrible but all the best ingredients may be out of sync. One thing though is the best shortwave forcing may actually be just south of the international border which may help a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At least Tuesday still looks like we could see some storms but the timing of the front looks like it will SUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK once again. Anyways shear looks pretty strong and lapse rates may not be overly terrible but all the best ingredients may be out of sync. One thing though is the best shortwave forcing may actually be just south of the international border which may help a bit. Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank. Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet. But this has been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. Not outright and in total..no. But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because that would circumstantially leave the region in elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings. You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years. I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area. F' heat man... that's awesome. But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding. We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means. Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time. But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F. It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 8, 2022 Author Share Posted July 8, 2022 Maybe some destruction across the interior on Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was told it was coming. It still is . Nothing changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Maybe some destruction across the interior on Tuesday? from talcum powder inside of your home?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank. Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet. But this is been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. Not outright and in total..no. But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because we are have left with circumstantially elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings. You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years. I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area. F' heat man... that's awesome. But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding. We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means. Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time. But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F. It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar. I would kill for another pattern like 2008. Just a consistent cold pool aloft setup. June and July were wild with the daily setups and we were even getting severe at night. One of those events I think actually generated the most severe reports in the BOX CWA on record and up until that point I think like 11% of large hail reports in NYS occurred that summer lol. I forget the date in June 2008...maybe June 10 but I had a hail storm where the hail lasted a good 15-minutes. 2007 was solid too. June 5, 2007 actually featured supercells across CT/MA. I remember going into that day the TOR probs were like 0 or maybe 2% from SPC but we were firing off supercells prompting tornado warnings. Winds backed around the pre-frontal and were strong enough to enhance the llvl shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was told it was coming. and the guarantee of it lasting right into October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 To go along with Brian’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Lol.... 30 f'n 4 degrees C at 850 mb over Enid OK is comically dire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 I mean forget Sonora ... 'magine if we got an "Oklahoma heat release" ? Imagine some scenario where Earth's system could actually physically engender those kinds temperatures in that area, then a sudden, there's a repo of the ridge E dragging that quickly along ...too fast for it to radiatively give its self back to the cosmos along the way... It really would be 110 F at LGA and Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Beef prices ftl if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beef prices ftl if that happens. https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/sysco-accuses-largest-beef-processors-price-fixing-86410248 all that needs to be done is to end the chokehold the 4 major beef processing companies have on the beef market.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol.... 30 f'n 4 degrees C at 850 mb over Enid OK is comically dire 500 heights > 600m and over a pretty large area. Pretty much going to be an oven under that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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