Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm not a space weather expert but looks like Aurora potential tonight. K index shows a storm is hitting right now

Would like the Kp higher…Bz has been south for awhile, but it’s close to flipping. There’s a chance?

image.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks dewier for sure going into the heart of summer. It’s almost like expecting deep winter as we go into Jan and Feb. Shocking. My bananas and pawpaws will appreciate the humidity.

I’m scared. Hold me.

image.gif

Going to need more of these loops.  The fluidity in the atmosphere is great in high-speed.

That is pretty sweet on a meal-scale level.  Wall of moisture rolling in waves and trying to overwhelm the area, and met with some resistance from the NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. you just can’t resist . Good luck to you and yours 

You throw them out there, I bite. The hyperbole is a trigger :lol:.  There's data to discuss.  Remember back in the day, all posts would include some critical analysis.

Personally, I think the long term is a hot/humid period breaking off from the central US ridge.  It'll flow through toasty, and then a FROPA will cool/dry things out again.  But not as much (step-up)... after that it gets hot and humid for a good period in the means.  "Cold frontal passages" will wash out and weaken as we get into peak climo time for heat.

You're going to get some good humidity coming, at the very least in waves.  It's the climo time of year.  Time-to-swim afternoons, pool, lake or river?  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You throw them out there, I bite. The hyperbole is a trigger :lol:.  There's data to discuss.  Remember back in the day, all posts would include some critical analysis.

Personally, I think the long term is a hot/humid period breaking off from the central US ridge.  It'll flow through toasty, and then a FROPA will cool/dry things out again.  But not as much (step-up)... after that it gets hot and humid for a good period in the means.  "Cold frontal passages" will wash out and weaken as we get into peak climo time for heat.

You're going to get some good humidity coming, at the very least in waves.  It's the climo time of year.  Time-to-swim afternoons, pool, lake or river?  

Good pep talk for those struggling 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS a bit more troughy on this run for us. I suppose I should stick to persistence and say more of the same with a nod to some warmer temps with dews from time to time. 

This last day ... day and half of runs fits the 'model persistence' too.   I mentioned this in posts over the last month of what's becoming extraordinarily persistent ( really! ), that about ever 3 or 4 days or so, the models try to sell the western ridge progression to toward 90W, toting along the SW/W release, only to replay this same tape over and over again of tamping the synoptic heat right back west in lieu of a bullying in a NW flow over eastern Canada. 

It's temping to get sold on that...   I'm not helping lol.  Because I've outlined how/why we can be historic.  Maybe should have hammered the definition of rareness that needs to come along with that. 

But my god...  All-time heat for consecutive days for Iowa to N. Texas under a ridge dome nearing 603 dm ...  Forget New England's imby for a moment, one would have to be a sociopath not to be concerned, let alone just being in awe for the shear Meteorological significance should that take place.  I mean the "core" of the highest results does tend to meander day to day but the general region over 100 (by a considerable margin!) sticks in place for 9 full diurnal maxes straight, with said core exceeding 110F ... With numerous 115?!      That's basically a climate event... That is probably the first indirect if not direct empirical example of what climate models have been illustrating:  sending future Kansian lat/lon region thru desertification.  Bye-bye agricultural belt in however many decades...etc.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At least Tuesday still looks like we could see some storms but the timing of the front looks like it will SUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK once again. Anyways shear looks pretty strong and lapse rates may not be overly terrible but all the best ingredients may be out of sync. One thing though is the best shortwave forcing may actually be just south of the international border which may help a bit. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At least Tuesday still looks like we could see some storms but the timing of the front looks like it will SUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK once again. Anyways shear looks pretty strong and lapse rates may not be overly terrible but all the best ingredients may be out of sync. One thing though is the best shortwave forcing may actually be just south of the international border which may help a bit. 

Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank.  Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet.  But this has been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. 

Not outright and in total..no.  But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because that would circumstantially leave the region in elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings.   You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years.  I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area.    F' heat man... that's awesome.  

But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding.  We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means.  Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time.  But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F.  It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank.  Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet.  But this is been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. 

Not outright and in total..no.  But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because we are have left with circumstantially elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings.   You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years.  I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area.    F' heat man... that's awesome.  

But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding.  We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means.  Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time.  But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F.  It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar.

I would kill for another pattern like 2008. Just a consistent cold pool aloft setup. June and July were wild with the daily setups and we were even getting severe at night. One of those events I think actually generated the most severe reports in the BOX CWA on record and up until that point I think like 11% of large hail reports in NYS occurred that summer lol. I forget the date in June 2008...maybe June 10 but I had a hail storm where the hail lasted a good 15-minutes.

2007 was solid too. June 5, 2007 actually featured supercells across CT/MA. I remember going into that day the TOR probs were like 0 or maybe 2% from SPC but we were firing off supercells prompting tornado warnings. Winds backed around the pre-frontal and were strong enough to enhance the llvl shear. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean forget Sonora ...  

'magine if we got an "Oklahoma heat release"  ?    Imagine some scenario where Earth's system could actually physically engender those kinds temperatures in that area, then a sudden, there's a repo of the ridge E dragging that quickly along ...too fast for it to radiatively give its self back to the cosmos along the way...  It really would be 110 F at LGA and Logan

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...