Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'd bet on Sam Darnold throwing for 7000 yards and 75 TD's while leading the Panthers to the 1st prefect Super Bowl season since the 72 Dolphins than 4 straight 100+ degree days at Bradley.. Just to play Devil's advocate for a moment... We have haven't had the "synergistic heat wave" scenario yet during this last two or so decades of 'hockey-stick' CC - those events that have increased in frequency, globally, during these last 20 to 30 years. Particularly the last 15 ... I mean I just called it hockey-stick, but the metaphor of dove-tailing upward may be more apropos. Anyway, we've been above normal disproportionately ..as our contribution to the GW puzzle. But we have not really had that special kind of E.R. casualty with dying cattle in the fields type of ordeal like that which has incinerated parts of France, Australia .. .the Urals, the Pac NW last year... , or relative to climo, that which took place up in Siberia so hotly anomalous as to trigger methane permafrost blow-out cratering. Some hyperbole there for fun .. but one should get my meaning. We've been stuck on the B-theater district, awe-struck by nocturnal low biases. Whoa! That should really send the message of a dire climate crisis home! lol... Brian and I have been talking about this a bit over recent times, that it may be a matter of time before a western/SW heat release times with atmospheric rogue wave event, where the two then super-impose uniquely up in the OV/NE arc. That thing out there in the 06z GFS is, for the record, less likely to occur for the obvious essay of reasons... but, we are quite possibly living with a ticking time bomb where all at once, some event that all-times all records, between Detroit and Boston, like 6 superbowl rings - not likely to be ever "matched" ( dad-pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Dire…. Just dire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 The deform band of drought. Hoping for an H6 surprise up this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: You calling someone grumpy Nothing but smiles here bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Sonoran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Lips n hips ? Poops n pools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lips n hips ? Poops n pools? Wait until the heat comes and he’s shoveling the poop off the driveway. Will be drips and shits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Hips and drips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just to play Devil's advocate for a moment... We have haven't had the "synergistic heat wave" scenario yet during this last two or so decades of 'hockey-stick' CC - those events that have increased in frequency, globally, during these last 20 to 30 years. Particularly the last 15 ... I mean I just called it hockey-stick, but the metaphor of dove-tailing upward may be more apropos. Anyway, we've been above normal disproportionately ..as our contribution to the GW puzzle. But we have not really had that special kind of E.R. casualty with dying cattle in the fields type of ordeal like that which has incinerated parts of France, Australia .. .the Urals, the Pac NW last year... , or relative to climo, that which took place up in Siberia so hotly anomalous as to trigger methane permafrost blow-out cratering. Some hyperbole there for fun .. but one should get my meaning. We've been stuck on the B-theater district, awe-struck by nocturnal low biases. Whoa! That should really send the message of a dire climate crisis home! lol... Brian and I have been talking about this a bit over recent times, that it may be a matter of time before a western/SW heat release times with atmospheric rogue wave event, where the two then super-impose uniquely up in the OV/NE arc. That thing out there in the 06z GFS is, for the record, less likely to occur for the obvious essay of reasons... but, we are quite possibly living with a ticking time bomb where all at once, some event that all-times all records, between Detroit and Boston, like 6 superbowl rings - not likely to be ever "matched" ( dad-pun intended) So you are saying we are due so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dire…. Just dire Over a half inch that night (7/5). Probably should just be abnormally dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 108 sounds doable. We take then bake by the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So you are saying we are due so to speak ... trying to avoid that, but sort of. Thing is, it's hard to know the "due" aspect because it's all discovery when the climate is in fact changing. One doesn't know what the end game looks like. It may change into a paradigm where we never get hot, at the expense of other areas of that planet becoming unlivable. etc... it could be that we are in a sense, 'over due,' and we've just been lucky. The purpose is to point out that a scenario like a huge SW expulsion sending magenta mass inject ..timed exquisitely into a 600 dam ridge bomb that happened to be synoptically forced from some other pattern modality... These timed events lend to extraordinary results and are not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Maybe we can get some SVR Tuesday. We pray...we pray...we PRAY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: Maybe we can get some SVR Tuesday. We pray...we pray...we PRAY Do you bow your head and say...”lord.....please bring enough severe weather to cause hardship to your flock”? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Great run to run consistency as always on GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Do you bow your head and say...”lord.....please bring enough severe weather to cause hardship to your flock”? Maybe I should start and bow my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Of course the 12z GFS goes to deep trough and Canadian High building in post 300hr when it was printing 100s at 6z. The ensembles hadn’t bought into the heat so we’ll see. It has to get hot at some point. Persistence? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Great run to run consistency as always on GFS Yeah... goes without saying, no guidance is inherently very useful at that range ( D10 to 20 haha) but, I just outlined some observations about the GFS to Weatherwiz, explaining some of it's unique personality in that regard. Also, this nails what we were talking about wrt to the 'false' pattern change - 2 or 3 cycles where the GFS ( sometimes the others included) start hinting or outright throwing out the change, only to have the modeled pattern regress and back-tamp higher heights into the SW again. I almost wonder if this is one of those summers that does this the whole way, then... alas, September 7 -15 there's 'heat wave' under tepid sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 we ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: we ensembles Looks like the 6z Ensembles disagreeing with the OP probably foreshadowed that a bit. EPS was a warm look so see if that continues at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The ensembles hadn’t bought into the heat so we’ll see. It has to get hot at some point. Some on here have been touting dews and heat for over two months - so to throw them a bone at this juncture would be the merciful thing to do. the war had been lost long ago but the soldiers still fight on. sad to see it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks like the 6z Ensembles disagreeing with the OP The gefs didn't agree with the 108F? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The gefs didn't agree with the 108F? Touché, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Very dark where I live despite no rain in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Touché, ha. I get your point though. I'm expecting more of the same except with a continued climo bump to it. Maybe trending toward longer warmups and weaker cold fronts? That ridge in the central US doesn't seem to want to go anywhere so that tends to favor the weakness and troughiness in SE Can. We need to get the ridge centered more into the TN/OH valley....or retrograde it into the west coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Odd that with full sunshine on July 7th its 78 IMBY highest temp this year 89.8. My grass is appreciating it though. Still lush and green in the middle of a little drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Prepare for heat and dews. WAR is coming 2nd half of July. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dire…. Just dire My garden is dry but that's only the top 8" of soil. I started keeping wx records in the early 1960s in NNJ, so while the current deficiency of RA is irritating, it's far from a real drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Do you bow your head and say...”lord.....please bring enough severe weather to cause hardship to your flock”? "Lord....please send a plague style hail storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Are their any tropical cyclones showing up on long range guidance for the East Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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