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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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GFS still going deep cool pool out through Day 8-12.

3EF6DA85-E050-4A64-87E5-2F0E5CBD8068.thumb.png.ef802beb05af25c235564a1c4c911b74.png

But for the first time in like a month there are changes at the end of the run 300+ hours out.

Tossing @Damage In Tollanda bone because some of us are unbiased observers… first look this entire summer that the model allows a piece of the  Midwest heat to break off and travel into New England by around July 20th.  Just in time for some summer HHH.

6DA9C8B3-F924-4EA2-9283-3E59A7B92C88.thumb.png.653f4543665a9d9ce3d275a491329cba.png

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16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

300 hr 18z GFS Op runs. Those are never wrong. Lock it up!

It’s coming at some point.  We won’t fight off the central US ridge all summer.  Once that SE Canada trough relaxes, or even blinks, it’ll get hot.

Sort of like even largely crap winters often have a 4 week period of decent chances.  It may be short or hangs on the second half of summer, hard to say.  

The winter equivalent is sort of like seeing some signs of sustained change around MLK weekend or late January.  We’d hope February into March is winter…. That’s what HHH fans are hoping, that August into September is a sustained stretch.  Not the worst thing to have some of that show up for a bit for the variety.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s coming at some point.  We won’t fight off the central US ridge all summer.  Once that SE Canada trough relaxes, or even blinks, it’ll get hot.

Sort of like even largely crap winters often have a 4 week period of decent chances.  It may be short or hangs on the second half of summer, hard to say.  

The winter equivalent is sort of like seeing some signs of sustained change around MLK weekend or late January.  We’d hope February into March is winter…. That’s what HHH fans are hoping, that August into September is a sustained stretch.  Not the worst thing to have some of that show up for a bit for the variety.

We expect to be HHH late July and August, up to now have had great golf weather almost every wednesday so far. Tonight was perfect, enough breeze to keep the bugs away.

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6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We expect to be HHH late July and August, up to now have had great golf weather almost every wednesday so far. Tonight was perfect, enough breeze to keep the bugs away.

Exactly. Let folks worry about 300 GFS runs and we'll enjoy the best summer ever. Even mister finicky Stein agrees.

 

Screenshot_20220706-213154_Chrome.jpg

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26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Exactly. Let folks worry about 300 GFS runs and we'll enjoy the best summer ever. Even mister finicky Stein agrees.

 

Screenshot_20220706-213154_Chrome.jpg

:lol: He loves it. It’s been so nice out, he’s not posting about drought. The citizenry loves dry warmth/heat.  Drier, sunny days with maxes in the 70s and 80s make people feel that dopamine rush.

We’ll also get summer at some point and the novelty will be fun.

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30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

the Euro ENS are pretty torch for that same time.   Not to say they are correct, but plenty of evidence supporting torchy stretch.

Whatevs. Color me not concerned. By then we're halfway through meteorological summer and the step down is beginning. Couple warm days? we'll deal. Nothing can taint this epic summer!

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It’s not too late for a flip to a HHH second half of summer . In about a week let’s see how SE Canada looks several days out . 
 

I love this weather but I mean , after a decade in S Fl what exactly am I gonna see that I can’t handle . Nada . Hoping that August flips the tropics on  and warms the water up if that’s the way things break . Till then 4 more days of COC 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not too late for a flip to a HHH second half of summer . In about a week let’s see how SE Canada looks several days out . 
 

I love this weather but I mean , after a decade in S Fl what exactly am I gonna see that I can’t handle . Nada . Hoping that August flips the tropics on  and warms the water up if that’s the way things break . Till then 4 more days of COC 

Next week 80s to near 90 later in week with dews. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week 80s to near 90 later in week with dews. 

Yeah looks like there’s a heater that moves through, before the SE Canada trough squashes it down again for 3-4 days.  It’s a solid hot interlude, with another refreshing Canadian shot behind it.

I think the July 20th+ stuff has legs for finally being a sustained HHH period.  A large part of the country has been baking.  We’ve been able to keep it to a minimum but sooner or later, AGW is going to roast us for a sustained period.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

GFS still going deep cool pool out through Day 8-12.

3EF6DA85-E050-4A64-87E5-2F0E5CBD8068.thumb.png.ef802beb05af25c235564a1c4c911b74.png

But for the first time in like a month there are changes at the end of the run 300+ hours out.

Tossing @Damage In Tollanda bone because some of us are unbiased observers… first look this entire summer that the model allows a piece of the  Midwest heat to break off and travel into New England by around July 20th.  Just in time for some summer HHH.

6DA9C8B3-F924-4EA2-9283-3E59A7B92C88.thumb.png.653f4543665a9d9ce3d275a491329cba.png

PF, it’s not the first time it’s done this… I’ve been talking about this … about every few days a series of runs tries to sell us this and then right back to back packing West thing. 

But …in the spirit of bone tossing lol

image.thumb.jpeg.ff51d8392a50bd6dde2c01c739d69bb3.jpeg

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43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Coc k boys have 4 days left in the period . And then they disappear, stop posting other than a whine here and there about dews . Knock knock … who’s there… dews…. Dews who….   Dews in your face 

5 but who's counting.  This summer must be killing you. Everyone smilin but you and grumpy Tiger. Classic summer morning 58⁰ into the low 80s. Lock it up and in.

Tic toc never the Glock just some nuts and a COC
Then I step through the fog and I creep through the smog
'Cause I'm Snoop Doggy (Who?) Doggy (What?) Doggy (Dog)

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52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5 but who's counting.  This summer must be killing you. Everyone smilin but you and grumpy Tiger. Classic summer morning 58⁰ into the low 80s. Lock it up and in.

Tic toc never the Glock just some nuts and a COC
Then I step through the fog and I creep through the smog
'Cause I'm Snoop Doggy (Who?) Doggy (What?) Doggy (Dog)

Lol

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Coc k boys have 4 days left in the period . And then they disappear, stop posting other than a whine here and there about dews . Knock knock … who’s there… dews…. Dews who….   Dews in your face 

You love coc, we know it’s difficult for you to admit it. The dews showing up at peak summeh climo is a great call too, kudos to that.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You love coc, we know it’s difficult for you to admit it. The dews showing up at peak summeh climo is a great call too, kudos to that.

It has to be painful to box yourself into a spot where you can’t post that you enjoyed a day or had fun, etc unless dew points are high.  Not even temperatures, he’s created his summer brand that he literally can’t post anything positive unless dews are over 65F.

Its gotta be hard for such an upbeat dude.  He’s going to explode with posts like heavy rhea when he finally can, ha. No reason to create a competition out of it, if you enjoyed a days weather… just let it rip.

48F last night for the min here.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has to be painful to box yourself into a spot where you can’t post that you enjoyed a day or had fun, etc unless dew points are high.  Not even temperatures, he’s created his summer brand that he literally can’t post anything positive unless dews are over 65F.

Its gotta be hard for such an upbeat dude.  He’s going to explode with posts like heavy rhea when he finally can, ha. No reason to create a competition out of it, if you enjoyed a days weather… just let it rip.

48F last night for the min here.

I can't complain if it takes until peak climo to really crank up the dews.....even in the best seasons, we get it sooner or later. At least we're only about a month from Tip letting us know that his bum-bum was a bit less toasty when he sat down in his Volvo.

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