dendrite Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Tough start for the dew lovers, but I’m sure the dog days will deliver. Once that SE Can trough is booted there won’t be much to save us from the heat ridge trying to bulge in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Chamber approved. Almost dews into the 30s in spots. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Tough start for the dew lovers, but I’m sure the dog days will deliver. Once that SE Can trough is booted there won’t be much to save us from the heat ridge trying to bulge in. Love that trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This pattern seems pretty stable now. I’ll wait for a Tippy post about the long wave indices, he usually covers that stuff well, but not sure what it would take to really rock the boat now and switch it up. The persistent SE Canada trough seems locked in. 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Love that trough As boring as it is, it’s nice. Keep the trough for now while Atlantic climo is meh and then flip to a ridge over the top and Great Lakes trough in August and September when tropical season kicks into high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: As boring as it is, it’s nice. Keep the trough for now while Atlantic climo is meh and then flip to a ridge over the top and Great Lakes trough in August and September when tropical season kicks into high gear. That's actually not quite the idealized pattern for us ... but I get what your after. Close. We need a +NAO --> -NAO that's biasing the western limb. And the "-->" is important, as in modality more so than the mode. The reason for that is because a ridge in Ontario with a trough down through the TV causes hurricane to move parabolically seaward before getting to our latitude. In order to 'ensure' a track that sends the analog signal, you need heights rising N-/E of NS, such that the deep later steering flow around the eastern trough 'relay's the escaping TC into a continuation along a west oriented path. If one thinks about that... it sort of makes sense that the statistical climate implies it is harder to do so.. because that requires a larger 'machinery of cogs' to operate in sync - it's just going to be harder to realize that in a broader hemispheric-scaled dynamic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Men and Women in suits taking brochure pictures everywhere We COC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Tough start for the dew lovers, but I’m sure the dog days will deliver. Once that SE Can trough is booted there won’t be much to save us from the heat ridge trying to bulge in. It’s a confusing process… but yeah if that trough leaves we will bake for a while. Nothing to stop that central ridge from moving in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s a confusing process… but yeah if that trough leaves we will bake for a while. Nothing to stop that central ridge from moving in. We will get our share of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 FIT had a dew of 34° earlier. PSM 33° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: FIT had a dew of 34° earlier. I've wondered about the KFIT sensor enough to even be suspicious of it. It's too often in a DP hole like that by huge numbers (relatively) compared to the surrounding obs. But who knows - maybe there is something particular about that site that claims water out of the air - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: FIT had a dew of 34° earlier. PSM 33° NW flow mixing out pockets of real dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Men and Women in suits taking brochure pictures everywhere We COC Thank goodness. Stepped off the plane at BDL last night after several days of upper teens/ low 20s dews in the Sierras and it was like I had hopped into a bowl of soup. But this is quite pleasant indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 12z GEFS continue to keep the trough going days 5 - 9 in the 2m mean temperatures. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've wondered about the KFIT sensor enough to even be suspicious of it. It's too often in a DP hole like that by huge numbers (relatively) compared to the surrounding obs. But who knows - maybe there is something particular about that site that claims water out of the air - 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NW flow mixing out pockets of real dry air? Lots of pockets with dews in the 30s today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked... But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat. Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites. It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked... But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat. Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites. It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness. Yeah I’m not sure I can remember a July air mass with RH values so low. BDL at 84/39 for 20% RH is some early spring before leaf out type of RH. FIT has been sitting 18% RH. Dry, dry, dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Jammed at the sandbar Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Best Independence Day weekend evah? The Chamber approves. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I’m not sure I can remember a July air mass with RH values so low. BDL at 84/39 for 20% RH is some early spring before leaf out type of RH. FIT has been sitting 18% RH. Dry, dry, dry. It actually fits my seasonal lag hypothesis/narrative ( not a condescending wink just sayn') 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Best Independence Day weekend evah? The Chamber approves. I was just reminiscing last year's 4th weekend. wow, right ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked... But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat. Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites. It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness. 83/51 here with bright blue skies for July is money in the bank though. Can’t beat it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just reminiscing last year's 4th weekend. wow, right ? It was 55F and drizzle here exactly 1 year ago from right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Spectacular day. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 What a fantastic day for the Northeast US. Low dews and clear skies and comfortable temps from Caribou Maine all the way down into Virginia. Wonder how many barbecues will be going tonight? Enjoy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 84/50, warm to hot in the sun but quite comfortable in the shade with the northerly breeze. Looks like another low in the 40s incoming. Top 10 day for sure....Pool is pushing 86⁰ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Great weather . I’m damn tan by now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It was 55F and drizzle here exactly 1 year ago from right now. Remember 10 days ago ... when the operational GFS was so dogmatically too cold in its usual dependable embarrassment, by grappling the White's in 534 dm thicknesses ... ? Prediction: there is a 100% probability that 0% of users in here will remember that/this bias the GFS has this next Nov 10 when it's has a white Thanx Giggedy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 74/48. Folks having cookouts, lighting fireworks, splashing around the pool, simply enjoying the great weather! Drunk old bald man , alone, finishing off another 4 pack by the humidifier shaking his fist at the sky. We tried to tell him... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * Looking unsettled on Tuesday with widespread rain possible. * Rest of the week looks cooler than normal but mainly dry. Could you script it any better? 2022, A Summer to remember. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 BOX reads minds. They aren’t confused. “After the cold front passage late Tuesday, the upper level pattern features a mean trough which will allow daytime highs during the remainder of the week to be below to near normal. For reference, typical daytime highs are in the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast. From a climatological standpoint, we are fast approaching the highest average temps in the year. So no real big heat in the horizon during the hottest time of the year!” 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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