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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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Btw, in memory of Mish Michaels, who we tragically lost  earlier this spring, there is an effort in memoriam,  "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being constructed at the Blue Hill Observatory.  I brought this to the attention of the board via the banter thread, as there is a fundraising effort in association with the cause.    Details are contained there if anyone wants to drop by and consider, or just take a look.

Secondly, deadly heat wave on the 12z GFS ... "weather" the 850 mb or the sfc 2-meter lag behind the 500 mb non-hydrostatic evolution, as they typically do at this range ( D9 - 13), thus shirking the front 2 days of possible big heat ..., aside, ...closing a 600 dm ridge node over eastern Ohio with zero large scale mechanics for delivery here, would like rival anything that has happened in history should that really evolve that way.. Anyone can go see it but here ...  That would be taking 101 type DTX heat and moving parabolically "over-top" and down on a WNW "d-sploping population demographic" ( lol ) if that happens...

image.png.ae5ec54b84089c1c8f5bcc16796c78ee.png

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Btw, in memory of Mish Michaels, who we tragically earlier this spring, there is an effort in memoriam,  "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being constructed at the Blue Hill Observatory.  I brought this to the attention of the board via the banter thread, as there is a fundraising effort in association with the cause.    Details are contained there if anyone wants to drop by and consider, or just take a look.

Secondly, deadly heat wave on the 12z GFS ... "weather" the 850 mb or the sfc 2-meter lag behind the 500 mb non-hydrostatic evolution, as they typically do at this range ( D9 - 13), thus shirking the front 2 days of possible big heat ..., aside, ...closing a 600 dm ridge node over eastern Ohio with zero large scale mechanics for delivery here, would like rival anything that has happened in history should that really evolve that way.. Anyone can go see it but here ...  That would be taking 101 type DTX heat and moving parabolically "over-top" and down on a WNW "d-sploping population demographic" ( lol ) if that happens...

image.png.ae5ec54b84089c1c8f5bcc16796c78ee.png

 

D077E75E-9827-4E9F-AD2C-D7AC6E251D1B.png

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Stream flow getting pretty low in most of the state. 

 

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ma/nwis/rt

Swamp and brook behind the house are completely devoid of water.  Just mud.  Never seen it like that in 13 years of living here.   Nearby, the 8 Mile river is getting very, very low.  Soon to be just stretches of pools of water rather than anything flowing.

Stein lives!!

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3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Swamp and brook behind the house are completely devoid of water.  Just mud.  Never seen it like that in 13 years of living here.   Nearby, the 8 Mile river is getting very, very low.  Soon to be just stretches of pools of water rather than anything flowing.

Stein lives!!

2 years ago the lake here in Dayville was really low at this time, but we are not at that low yet.  The next few weeks will certainly see the level drop.

 

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15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

2 years ago the lake here in Dayville was really low at this time, but we are not at that low yet.  The next few weeks will certainly see the level drop.

 

It's pretty dry everywhere, but locally it's been exceptional.  Almost all the convective rain has missed north or south since June 1st.   Less than an inch of rain total since June 1st.

June 1st   trace
June 2nd   trace
June 17th  .10"
June 22nd  .10"
July 14th  trace
July 16th  trace
July 19th  .70"
July 25th  trace

 

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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs is bone dry too. It will get worse before it gets better.

It feeds back ... yup.

I mean, that ridge projection would be capable of loading 97/76 ... basically, lower Corn Belt hell anyway, but ... the antecedent summer environment this year has put us in a situation of limited returning soil moisture.  It likely has penetrated deep enough ( check hydrologists ) that flora, floor to canopy species, are all stemming ( no pun intended) the amount of moisture making it to evaporation (evapotran -).    For eastern N/A ..there's two sources for DP: land and it's activity; or curvilinear flow loading off the Gulf and/or adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.  

This type of synopsis out there doesn't have those latter sources.   That leaves the land-air interface which oops.. entering that time frame is as such, challenged. 

So... now we have a ridge that has the scaffolding for some really giant numbers, with low DPs ( relative to climo)...    Bingo, the model has no physical hope but to allow the T side to pretty much rise to the full insolation potential. 

I think a warmer than normal period ( above the CC + climate baseline...) is growing in likelihood.   The CPC NAO and PNA are converging fantastically actually... The signals are less useful, at this time of year, more typically.. But, when they are in constructive interference with other trend and climate modes, and ... mm that changes the map a little.  

I wouldn't suggest 7 days of 100+ temperatures, on  D7-13 chart, has any more merit than a 30" snow storm on a D11 chart would in winter.  But, we do need to keep in mind, there are times when big scenarios start showing up at extended leads, and they do so because the governing dynamics are overwhelming the typical/'noisy' offsetting events out in time.   Sandy did that.  So did the heat wave recently in western Europe.   ...etc..etc..

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