July 2022 Disco/obs/etc

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Amazing dinner and view. 

Pass. View may be nice but I’m sure it smells like stale boat gas and low tide.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Amazing dinner and view. 

Nice picture, glad to see Ho Chi Minh is alive and well on the gas tank painting.

It’s hard to believe I left Cambridge  almost 15 years ago. 

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pass. View may be nice but I’m sure it smells like stale boat gas and low tide.

Get out a little bit more. 

[kdxken]

[Saturday Forecast] Spectacular mid-summer weather today weather-wise: sunny, dry and comfortable humidity levels. Clear skies and a bit cool tonight - a few spots could approach record low minimum temperatures for the date.

 

Yore

 

 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

[Saturday Forecast] Spectacular mid-summer weather today weather-wise: sunny, dry and comfortable humidity levels. Clear skies and a bit cool tonight - a few spots could approach record low minimum temperatures for the date.

 

Yore

 

 

May never see this again 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

May never see this again 

Goofus has snow in E QB at the end of the 6z run…lol.

Glad we don’t live with Nick.

[dendrite]

This feels like one of those 1930s dustbowl patterns where there’s widespread exotic heat in the Plains and Midwest, yet you look at the New England data and you’re like “meh”.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This feels like one of those 1930s dustbowl patterns where there’s widespread exotic heat in the Plains and Midwest, yet you look at the New England data and you’re like “meh”.

It may become that out there lol.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It may become that out there lol.

I mean CON was BN in July of 1934 and 1936 while a place like Grand Isle was ripping off a +10F for a summer month. Pretty insane.

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May never see this again 

Yeah I know we got to pay Paul. Or is it peter?

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus has snow in E QB at the end of the 6z run…lol.

Glad we don’t live with Nick.

Is there a similar adage about snow in July as there is to snow in October?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Three days.  
 

Three days left in the period

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Three days.  
 

Three days left in the period

Five days until it mild downs again.

[weatherwiz]

Severe threat Tuesday!!!!!! 
 

But I’m not starting a thread. It’s a big fat jinx   

[Damage In Tolland]

A long and deep extended torch. Ridges linking over the top!

[HoarfrostHubb]

So far BDL is +1.4F for the month.  Based on certain posts, I’m expecting +10 to +15 by month’s end there

[powderfreak]

I swear the NWS offices troll DIT.  Why else add this at the end.

Longer term...it still looks like NECONUS stays away from Central CONUS heat ridge with northern stream still trying to influence our weather pattern. &&

[Damage In Tolland]

GWDLT

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I believe it was stated 1/3 of white pines in New Hampshire.  

And central Mass as well.  It's well described in Stephen Long's "Thirty Eight - The Hurricane that Transformed New England", though the serious tree damage in western Maine wasn't noted.  There's a lot of Maine acres west of Rangeley on which the current stands of trees were established by that storm.  As for making a tree species extinct, I thought of the holly groves on Fire Island, but I think there are some remaining there.

We lived in Gardiner, Maine when Bob came through.  It produced the greatest calendar day rainfall I've recorded, 6.41", and was the only TC which had backside NW winds as strong as the frontside SE, though 95% of RA came before the shift. 
(Tops for 24 hr is 8.90" on 8/27-28/1971 in NNJ, 3.80" from a PRE on 8/27 and 5.10" from TS "Doria", most falling midnight-5 AM.  Fortunately, only about 1/2" RA had fallen during the previous 3 weeks, so flooding of major rivers was minor though small/midsized watercourses went wild.)

[dendrite]

I’m scared

K1P1   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/09/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16 CLIMO
 X/N  78| 45  81| 49  85| 58  84| 63  80| 58  77| 55  80| 57  84 54 79
 TMP  66| 53  71| 56  75| 64  76| 68  72| 63  68| 61  71| 63  74      
 DPT  50| 47  54| 53  59| 62  67| 64  64| 59  58| 57  59| 59  65      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND   9|  1   5|  1   6|  3   6|  2   8|  6   6|  1   7|  1   4      
 P12   0|  0   2|  3   3|  8  36| 53  36| 25  19| 16  11| 13  14999999
 P24    |      2|      3|     38|     69|     33|     19|     30   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      3|      0|       |             
 T12   3|  1   2|  0   6|  5  26| 26  23|  6  12|  6  13|  5  16      
 T24    |  3    |  2    |  6    | 52    | 23    | 14    | 13          

 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Goofus has snow in E QB at the end of the 6z run…lol.

Glad we don’t live with Nick.

Close to home (Chic Chocs) or way up by Ungava where July flakes are no big thing?

[Typhoon Tip]

The huge heat event idea for the Plains lapsing throughout the MS Valley and western Lakes and all that is beyond D7 still ( btw - )

not that anyone asked, but just sayn'

Which makes it unlikely to even occur, in deference to understanding and the blah blah inherent model limitations that are blah blah blah.

In the meantime, the the 00z Euro has two consecutive runs that keep the 850 mb, +15 isotherm near or above the ORD-BUF-BOS arc, from D3 thru 10.  Whether we get the pattern to engineer some historic dome of heat agog, that is a separate matter to me.  'Should be considered mutually exclusive to a leading possible 5 .. 6 day stint where/when clouds and RH notwithstanding, the highs may make 87 to 90 daily, anyway (SNE .. our NNE brothers and sisters modulate for latitude)

The 00z GFS does obtrude a 30 hour interlude of +8 ... +11 C 850s with a more aggressive frontal cleansing late Wed... not completely sold on that as the ens mean of both it and the Euro (eps) are less so.  Maybe... NNE will get clipped by a transient correction, but both guidance types have a hybrid heat conveyor coming in by late Friday, N-S

As far as DP ... not sure that looks huge.  I'd lean at negative relative to this sort of summer miasma, just based upon a mean of two primary factors:

( continental seasonal trend  + the circulation mode that morphs into that look )/ 2  = tendencies to have less theta-sourcing.

Kind of like a dog days of August, 1 month early, with a twist of CC hiding in the 'decimal forcing'

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

This feels like one of those 1930s dustbowl patterns where there’s widespread exotic heat in the Plains and Midwest, yet you look at the New England data and you’re like “meh”.

This^ has occurred to me often in recent days. 

… But more specifically wondering how a 1930s pattern would fair over top this CC footprint …superimposing constructively

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

And central Mass as well.  It's well described in Stephen Long's "Thirty Eight - The Hurricane that Transformed New England", though the serious tree damage in western Maine wasn't noted.  There's a lot of Maine acres west of Rangeley on which the current stands of trees were established by that storm.  As for making a tree species extinct, I thought of the holly groves on Fire Island, but I think there are some remaining there.

We lived in Gardiner, Maine when Bob came through.  It produced the greatest calendar day rainfall I've recorded, 6.41", and was the only TC which had backside NW winds as strong as the frontside SE, though 95% of RA came before the shift. 
(Tops for 24 hr is 8.90" on 8/27-28/1971 in NNJ, 3.80" from a PRE on 8/27 and 5.10" from TS "Doria", most falling midnight-5 AM.  Fortunately, only about 1/2" RA had fallen during the previous 3 weeks, so flooding of major rivers was minor though small/midsized watercourses went wild.)

The reoccurrence of majors in the north east of about 1/100 years is a big part of why truly big, old trees are so rare. The old growth groves that survived logging are generally in sheltered steep gorges. 100mph gusts and hardwoods just don’t mix. 
The fire island hollys are definitely still there, behind huge dune systems that can make it through a major. 
a great old growth tree that does well in high winds is the black gum. You might not be a familiar with them in Maine 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I’m scared

K1P1   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/09/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16 CLIMO
 X/N  78| 45  81| 49  85| 58  84| 63  80| 58  77| 55  80| 57  84 54 79
 TMP  66| 53  71| 56  75| 64  76| 68  72| 63  68| 61  71| 63  74      
 DPT  50| 47  54| 53  59| 62  67| 64  64| 59  58| 57  59| 59  65      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND   9|  1   5|  1   6|  3   6|  2   8|  6   6|  1   7|  1   4      
 P12   0|  0   2|  3   3|  8  36| 53  36| 25  19| 16  11| 13  14999999
 P24    |      2|      3|     38|     69|     33|     19|     30   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      3|      0|       |             
 T12   3|  1   2|  0   6|  5  26| 26  23|  6  12|  6  13|  5  16      
 T24    |  3    |  2    |  6    | 52    | 23    | 14    | 13          

 

Hold me.  Day 5-9 at average 850mb temps.

Here's where things become muddied though in this forum's semantics arguements.

"Normal" in mid-July is hot.  It's highs in the upper 80s at a place like BDL.  

Definitely going to be warm/hot... not exceptionally relative to normal but it'll be summer.

[Lava Rock]

Top 10 day on the ocean.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The reoccurrence of majors in the north east of about 1/100 years is a big part of why truly big, old trees are so rare. The old growth groves that survived logging are generally in sheltered steep gorges. 100mph gusts and hardwoods just don’t mix. 
The fire island hollys are definitely still there, behind huge dune systems that can make it through a major. 
a great old growth tree that does well in high winds is the black gum. You might not be a familiar with them in Maine 

Black gum, a species of tupelo, is moderately common in southern York County, just to the south of Mt. Agamenticus.  (That area is Maine's example of Central Hardwood Forest, with abundant hickory and black birch plus the only natural origin chestnut oak in Maine.  There used to be Maine's only sassafras and flowering dogwood there until the road and parking lot were built for the now defunct Big A ski area.  The dogwood may still be there.)
There's a handful of black gum on state land surrounding the old Pineland complex about 10 miles NW from PWM, and I spotted one as far north as Gardiner while deer hunting in 1993.  (Date remembered because I had a nice 8-pointer walk within buckshot range the day before Thanksgiving.)   The right-angle branching is diagnostic, especially on branches growing from larger branches.   Its magenta color in the fall is also noteworthy.

I don't think any of Maine's tree species can withstand 100 mph winds unless they're well sheltered (so the effective wind is much less) except possibly leaf-off sugar maple and beech on deep soils.  On September 30, 1986 a straight-line wind flattened about 600 acres a few miles east from the town of Eagle Lake, half on state land and half on private.  It hit so hard that defect-free sugar maples were snapped off before they could uproot.  I don't know if the folks from the Caribou WSO ever evaluated this event; the 20"+ snowfall on Nov. 20-21 ended the opportunity.  Given the extent and degree of damage, my estimate would be 90-100 mph.

[Typhoon Tip]

that's a little dubious there - not you... the model.

Ex, the high T's under that neutral area of Missouri, N Ark and Il start at 90-ish and end up at 100-ish spanning those days, and the GFS sells almost no 850 anomaly - seems a bit cool biased and weird for those surface temps.  I realize climo for them is warmer but I don't believe it is 90-100 "normally" spanning 5 days like that, either. 

something seems off in the GFS or this product.

[Damage In Tolland]

I love folks posting GFS means to verify their arguments

[Typhoon Tip]

In any case...  here we are, rinse and repeat...   The 12z GFS smashes in another trough and packs the heat back west again. 

If one is a heat enthusiast, pack it in - not happenin' James.  Something about the planetary physical/total manifold is anchoring and unmovable.