July 2022 Disco/obs/etc

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Who could have imagined that it might be hot in mid July? Shocking.

Everything’s been on track since April.  Some summer in July.

75/55

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tooooorrcchhh!!!

Yes, it’s the height of summer, it should be hot.   

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Seeing what Bob did to a fairly small area of far SE MA and RI, I'd agree.  We got very lucky with Bob as it hooked more NE instead of NNE than forecasted, because that would have been widespread extensive damage to much of E CT/RI/MA had it tracked just 50 miles west, or even 25 really.

I know we say it here every year, but the general public has no idea how fortunate we’ve been in recent years. Rapidly weakening tropical storms and brushes are nowhere near the power of an actual direct strike from a legit cane. Bob is probably the best example of what one of those could do. 

Because it’s harder for that flush hit here, I think it makes it all the the more damaging whenever it does happen.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think even a lower end category 2 would produce damage near the catastrophic end. A category 3 could probably make some areas unlivable for months, especially the shoreline. You would think power outages would persist several weeks in the hardest hit areas and you would probably be looking at >80-90% power outages for several days to week. 

I agree with pretty much everything you said here. These would be the conditions needed to facilitate such an event. Of course too exact track and where landfall were to occur would dictate just how catastrophic an event would be. 

One other factor to consider too is climate change and warmer waters, especially south of Long Island. If we were to ever see a strong hurricane moving up the coast, it may not weaken like it would have before, especially if the forward speed is quite fast. 

It really is just a matter of when for such a scenario to occur. I guess we can only hope that if such a storm did come up the coast it wouldn't make landfall and just brush off with the center passing east of Cape Cod. We would still get pounded but that might prevent a total worst case scenario...?

Right. The devil’s in the details and the thing is, we probably won’t have a good handle on the forecast until it’s literally on our doorstep. I went back to look at NHC forecasts from 48-72 hours out for a number of recent systems and it’s incredible how even excellent forecasts display significant uncertainty.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tooooorrcchhh!!!

Doesn’t look too outlandish for mid-July to me. Seasons in seasons. 

[Torch Tiger]

well into the 80's here today, pretty nice!

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Doesn’t look too outlandish for mid-July to me. Seasons in seasons. 

We'll probably see a few of those heater days tick upward a bit with time.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Ha, “Why don’t you step into my van and let me show you my meat?”

ya never know

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw a dust devil once. Should have honestly been rated...nearly blew me over. 

It was my senior year of high school back in 2006. I used to do the scorebook for the baseball team. It was a hot (but not humid) day with temperatures probably close to 90. There were no clouds and no breeze. All of a sudden this huge gust of wind kicks up and there were some leaves back by the corner of the school that were rising in a circular motion. It was coming at us. As it crossed into the gravel/sand it started to pick up rocks and dirt. It was an very strong burst of wind. Knocked the coach off the bench and it lifted the medical kit several feet into the air. As it traveled along the field the vortex easily extended hundreds of feet into the air and went clear across the field before dissipating at the end of the field near the road. It had also taken up my papers and you could see papers swirling hundreds of feet into the air. This is the best part...it took the umpires check and it was found the next day in Windsor, CT or Enfield (I forget which town). So it traveled in the air from West Hartford and was found in someone's yard. Getting pelted by the pebbles was not fun...well actually it was

Only seen it once, in 1966 when I worked at Curtiss-Wright's lake resort in NNJ.  It had been hot, like all of summer '66, but dry with little wind.  Mid-afternoon a north wind suddenly turned the north-south lake into whitecaps, probably approaching 40 mph.  I heard a crash at the south end of the clubhouse where I was short-order cooking, then saw sand and stuff flying around the north end and ran to that end to watch.  There were hardwood chaise-lounges with thick cushions on the beach, and the wind tossed one of the 25-lb lounges down to water's edge and left the cushion stuck 50 feet up in an oak tree.  The spinner flipped over the aluminum rescue boat FAST, barely missing a nearby lifeguard, then headed across the lake with one of those 30" tall "pipe" ashtrays whirling around a few yards above the water.  The lake was less than 500' wide and the cliff on the far side quickly ended the drama.  I'm guessing the sudden gust created a bit of low pressure at the south end of the building and air rushed in from the west to fill in, triggering the fun.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

We'll probably see a few of those heater days tick upward a bit with time.

They have been all summer 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think even a lower end category 2 would produce damage near the catastrophic end. A category 3 could probably make some areas unlivable for months ever, especially the shoreline. You would think power outages would persist several weeks in the hardest hit areas and you would probably be looking at >80-90% power outages for several days to week. 

I agree with pretty much everything you said here. These would be the conditions needed to facilitate such an event. Of course too exact track and where landfall were to occur would dictate just how catastrophic an event would be. 

One other factor to consider too is climate change and warmer waters, especially south of Long Island. If we were to ever see a strong hurricane moving up the coast, it may not weaken like it would have before, especially if the forward speed is quite fast. 

It really is just a matter of when for such a scenario to occur. I guess we can only hope that if such a storm did come up the coast it wouldn't make landfall and just brush off with the center passing east of Cape Cod. We would still get pounded but that might prevent a total worst case scenario...?

Lol...  months.  right -

A Cat 3 storm, you'd be talkin' swath denudation of Long Island.   'Specially if it's moving N apace such as a 1938, which was caught in the deep steering field between a quasi closed weakness ( reanalysis ) SW and an evolving maritime block.  They'd be picking bedroom linen and personal detritus from southern L.I. short communities, out of the stripped tree limbs at the head of Narragansett Bay.  The bank statements found in the fields of CT would be mapped back to slabs.

[moneypitmike]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tooooorrcchhh!!!

 

Ryan's isn't even able to tease you with an official heat-wave.  Don't worry, there's always next summer.

[Cyclone-68]

Didn’t the ‘38 storm destroy an entire species of tree?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They have been all summer 

You seem sore from the relentless coc you’ve taken over the past 60 days. We’ll give you a few weeks of swamp ass to heal the aches and pains. Enjoy.

[WxWatcher007]

There is no doubt in my mind that people would move right back to those areas. 

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There is no doubt in my mind that people would move right back to those areas. 

With the exception of Napatree Point, yes. 

[Ginx snewx]

56 minutes ago, Hoth said:

With the exception of Napatree Point, yes. 

Barren

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw a dust devil once. Should have honestly been rated...nearly blew me over. 

It was my senior year of high school back in 2006. I used to do the scorebook for the baseball team. It was a hot (but not humid) day with temperatures probably close to 90. There were no clouds and no breeze. All of a sudden this huge gust of wind kicks up and there were some leaves back by the corner of the school that were rising in a circular motion. It was coming at us. As it crossed into the gravel/sand it started to pick up rocks and dirt. It was an very strong burst of wind. Knocked the coach off the bench and it lifted the medical kit several feet into the air. As it traveled along the field the vortex easily extended hundreds of feet into the air and went clear across the field before dissipating at the end of the field near the road. It had also taken up my papers and you could see papers swirling hundreds of feet into the air. This is the best part...it took the umpires check and it was found the next day in Windsor, CT or Enfield (I forget which town). So it traveled in the air from West Hartford and was found in someone's yard. Getting pelted by the pebbles was not fun...well actually it was

Surprised they didnt find you in a backyard in Windsor

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know we say it here every year, but the general public has no idea how fortunate we’ve been in recent years. Rapidly weakening tropical storms and brushes are nowhere near the power of an actual direct strike from a legit cane. Bob is probably the best example of what one of those could do. 

Because it’s harder for that flush hit here, I think it makes it all the the more damaging whenever it does happen.

Right. The devil’s in the details and the thing is, we probably won’t have a good handle on the forecast until it’s literally on our doorstep. I went back to look at NHC forecasts from 48-72 hours out for a number of recent systems and it’s incredible how even excellent forecasts display significant uncertainty.

Bob’s eye went right over my house. We went outside for a few before the other side of the eye wall game through. I was 13 at the time - left the town a huge mess, many trees down in Bristol. My grandmother said it was the worst since Carol. We’ve been pretty lucky since then.

[Lava Rock]

Beautiful coc night

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Ginx snewx]

Tigger 14 days post surgery.  All surgicallý healed. A 3 legged wonder

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tigger 14 days post surgery.  All surgicallý healed. A 3 legged wonder

Awesome Ginxy.  Dogs adapt so well and are happy while doing it.

Mine got follow up x-rays 6-weeks after surgery and should be back to hiking in August.

[WxWatcher007]

32 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Bob’s eye went right over my house. We went outside for a few before the other side of the eye wall game through. I was 13 at the time - left the town a huge mess, many trees down in Bristol. My grandmother said it was the worst since Carol. We’ve been pretty lucky since then.

That’s crazy. My brother was born in Hurricane Bob, and my dad used to tell the story of how he had to drive my mom to the hospital around downed trees and leaning power lines here in CT. 

I used to watch the TWC tropical update religiously. I was as big a tropical weenie as they came. I guess I still am since I post more about tropical than everyone on this site combined at times.  

I’m following my calling, but there’s always an itch to go back to school for a met degree and just focus on tropical. 

[CoastalWx]

Amazing dinner and view. 

[Hoth]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tigger 14 days post surgery.  All surgicallý healed. A 3 legged wonder

Glad to hear it, Steve! We had a farm dog that lost a leg to a combine when I was a kid and after a few months it was just as spry as ever. Amazingly adaptable creatures.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Amazing dinner and view. 

Of the Gulf  sign and water tank? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Didn’t the ‘38 storm destroy an entire species of tree?

I believe it was stated 1/3 of white pines in New Hampshire.  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of the Gulf  sign and water tank? 

Haha much wider view 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Awesome Ginxy.  Dogs adapt so well and are happy while doing it.

Mine got follow up x-rays 6-weeks after surgery and should be back to hiking in August.

Glad to hear!! Dude is as fast as ever. Amazing 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s crazy. My brother was born in Hurricane Bob, and my dad used to tell the story of how he had to drive my mom to the hospital around downed trees and leaning power lines here in CT. 

I used to watch the TWC tropical update religiously. I was as big a tropical weenie as they came. I guess I still am since I post more about tropical than everyone on this site combined at times.  

I’m following my calling, but there’s always an itch to go back to school for a met degree and just focus on tropical. 

Western Eyewall in Ashaway RI. Fantastic storm. 6 inches of rain. Tornado in the dry slot.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of the Gulf  sign and water tank? 

Not a water tank.  LNg. Not sure if it is even used anymore but it has a big piece of art on it.  It is the largest copyrighted work of art in the world.