July 2022 Disco/obs/etc

[Typhoon Tip]

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ...

It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models.  

That's an interesting story -

[radarman]

Daily highs in Dallas are all over 105 from basically later June through early Sept.  Most recent big heat was 2018, 4 straight days 108 or 109.  But the biggest heat was 1980, 1936, and 1909 at 112 and 113.

[Torch Tiger]

Decent ring of fire look on the long-range 12z gfs!

[moneypitmike]

I was expecting more sun and warmer temps than we have in Westborough.

77 and cloudy.

[radarman]

1980 has the daily record high at DFW for 18 out of 26 days from 6/23 to 7/18, including the all time record.  Now that is some amazing heat (or a broken sensor )

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And the guys had clean trucks with a chainsaw in the back and flannel shirts. 

Stein agrees with your summer of yore.

 

"The nights will be exceptionally comfortable this weekend with morning lows back into the 50s for the suburbs. This is in stark contrast to the past several summers when these types of nights were very limited. Even in a warming climate, we can still have a summer that was more typically occurring three or four decades ago."

[MJOatleast7]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ...

It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models.  

That's an interesting story -

I mean, 35C at 850 has been in the higher country in the western parts of all those states but not at the lower elev's farther east. There we can better apply the 15-16C add-on to 850s rule for extrapolating to the surface and we get Khorramshahr oilfield heat

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, radarman said:

1980 has the daily record high at DFW for 18 out of 26 days from 6/23 to 7/18, including the all time record.  Now that is some amazing heat.

Yeah...I vaguely recall that - I was but a small boy.. heh.  I had just experienced my first EF3 ( the rating scale back whence) tornado from all of .5 mi away, as it bore a canyon through the business district of downtown Kalamazoo, Mi on May 13th (Tue, not Fri!) earlier that spring.

Later came the heat, but it never really bulged very well up into the Lakes... In fact, the warmest I recall it being during the 1975 to 1983 era in the Lakes was a 96 once...but I was early adolescent and not really entirely aware.   I think the 1980 heat down south got me interested in that.. .10 or so years later, came the 1995 Corn Belt to southern Lakes event, then I became fascinated.   

I don't want to be in the heat ... but it the synoptic meteorology is pretty interesting from a purely nerd's perspective -

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, MJOatleast7 said:

I mean, 35C at 850 has been in the higher country in the western parts of all those states but not at the lower elev's farther east. There we can better apply the 15-16C add-on to 850s rule for extrapolating to the surface and we get Khorramshahr oilfield heat

Yeah that's what's been f'n with me this morning.  

That should correct lower ?   I don't think that survives the next week of modeling but you know... I can't really discount the idea entirely, because of the Pac NW last June ( 2021), and the mounting numbers of "syntergistic heat waves" events that have been observed, globally, as a coherently increasing frequency. 

We have not really had one of those in Kansas...   We've had two that got us close...   1995 and 2012 ... But the super heating deal that surpass the 110 is really a uniquely deadly sort of shit show.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, radarman said:

1980 has the daily record high at DFW for 18 out of 26 days from 6/23 to 7/18, including the all time record.  Now that is some amazing heat (or a broken sensor )

Only 6am has never been 90+

[weatherwiz]

Good ole Dallas where you're more likely to see a tornado touchdown than a Cowboys touchdown 

[dendrite]

1954 cane analog? Congrats St. Louis.

[Cyclone-68]

Reminds me of that old Twilight Zone episode where the Earth is moving closer to the sun. That disturbed me quite a bit as a kid 

[Brewbeer]

33 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein agrees with your summer of yore.

 

"The nights will be exceptionally comfortable this weekend with morning lows back into the 50s for the suburbs. This is in stark contrast to the past several summers when these types of nights were very limited. Even in a warming climate, we can still have a summer that was more typically occurring three or four decades ago."

So far this summer, so good.  Can't remember the last I needed to turn on the AC and close the windows.  

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1954 cane analog? Congrats St. Louis.

I wish there was a sort of "integrated electron-volts" index that determines the thermal size/weight of these things.  Because it seems to me that which is being proffered by these recent GFS runs is pervasive, not just in the y-coordinate.    2012 was massive in that regard.. at it's max, I think St L to Washington were all high 90s/mid 70s DPs... 300 or 400 m either side of that axis something.   But, a metrical calculation/integral would help rank these things, too - 

Like ISE but for heat anomalies.  That image above has more contiguous regional inclusion surpassing 100 F than I can recall ever seeing... Maybe going back 1930s??  I know there was some extraordinary heat that overtopped from MN to Philly in one of those back whence.  

[radarman]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1954 cane analog?

throw in a Dec 1980 arctic outbreak and it's a deal

[WxWatcher007]

I’m bored out of my mind so I used part of my lunch break to look at the NHC forecast for Irene. At one point five days out they had the center of a 70kt Hurricane Irene in central Maine. Yikes.

Tropical is hard up here. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I was expecting more sun and warmer temps than we have in Westborough.

77 and cloudy.

I could use a little more sun. This week has been a little too cloudy for my liking. Bring the dews up to 60 would be good too. Its July, not September. 

[dendrite]

Screwing around and saw this gem of an ob from Thermal in 1995. 125/68 with dust devils.

TRM
1995-07-28 21:00
KTRM 282100Z 34007KT 25SM CLR 52/20 A2966 RMK CU OV MTNS W-N DUST DEVILS/ 58020 SLP044 T05160200

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Screwing around and saw this gem of an ob from Thermal in 1995. 125/68 with dust devils.

TRM
1995-07-28 21:00
KTRM 282100Z 34007KT 25SM CLR 52/20 A2966 RMK CU OV MTNS W-N DUST DEVILS/ 58020 SLP044 T05160200

I saw a dust devil once. Should have honestly been rated...nearly blew me over. 

It was my senior year of high school back in 2006. I used to do the scorebook for the baseball team. It was a hot (but not humid) day with temperatures probably close to 90. There were no clouds and no breeze. All of a sudden this huge gust of wind kicks up and there were some leaves back by the corner of the school that were rising in a circular motion. It was coming at us. As it crossed into the gravel/sand it started to pick up rocks and dirt. It was an very strong burst of wind. Knocked the coach off the bench and it lifted the medical kit several feet into the air. As it traveled along the field the vortex easily extended hundreds of feet into the air and went clear across the field before dissipating at the end of the field near the road. It had also taken up my papers and you could see papers swirling hundreds of feet into the air. This is the best part...it took the umpires check and it was found the next day in Windsor, CT or Enfield (I forget which town). So it traveled in the air from West Hartford and was found in someone's yard. Getting pelted by the pebbles was not fun...well actually it was

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Stein agrees with your summer of yore.

 

"The nights will be exceptionally comfortable this weekend with morning lows back into the 50s for the suburbs. This is in stark contrast to the past several summers when these types of nights were very limited. Even in a warming climate, we can still have a summer that was more typically occurring three or four decades ago."

mm..not to be a dh but that's no real revelation.

The amount of warming so far fits inside of ~1.5 Deg C since 1900.  Granted that does not distribute equally, everywhere, with some areas preferentially heating more so than others, and even other areas offsetting due to circulation modes changing...whatever.   Point being, ~1.5 C (2.4 F) doesn't seem intuitively like that is vast enough to preclude 50s from ever happening during summer nights.  

Since the year 2000, we have been warmer than normal over SE Canada and the NE U.S./lower Maritime like everywhere else, but I have personally noticed that some 2/3rds of the total months since 2000 ( ~ 160 of them ) came in with a modest cool node over or near enough by, relative the rest of the global magnitude.  Something peculiar about the continent and physical geography, and the way it fits into the planetary engine causes the circulation modes to favor those regions for that.   Not always... a fair number of months  80 to 100 were quite warm too. 

I'm not sure it requires a lot of calculation to see the shape of the argument there. 

 

[TheBudMan]

Wiz I'm quite sure when you were a Senior in high school I could have sneezed and blown you down. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ...

It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models.  

That's an interesting story -

My jaw about hit the floor when I saw the 12z run.  I have never seen anything like that modeled in my region before.  Several degrees cooler, yeah, but not this.

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of related... heh ... weird, but I had a knock on the door, yesterday, and it was this guy from Omaha Steaks or whatever that company's name is... replete with b-ball cap and logo'ed polo shirt. Idling behind him was a refrigerator outfitted pick-up truck - it had the crest on the door.  He explained that he was in the area doing deliveries, and had extra product ..." would I like to take a look," he would offer them to me at discount prices.  

I dunno..but something instinctual ( perhaps ) kicked in and it just didn't seem appropriate to have a freezer outfitted pick up, just show up out of nowhere offering meat for some reason.  Probably didn't help that as the gentleman spoke, the one front tooth being the color of tobacco triggered all kinds of stereotypologies in me...   Hey, call me a douche -

I thought fast, and crinkled a slight one cheek grin and said, " I just wanted to let you finish, but sorry bro - vegetarian."   Which I'm not...but, it was a remarkably quick and effective means to exit what was a subtly awkward if not shady encounter...

I mean, does "Omaha" do cold call stops like that?   anyone ever heard of such a thing?  

Ha, “Why don’t you step into my van and let me show you my meat?”

[WxWatcher007]

Seeing that forecast for Irene has me thinking. What’s the reasonable worst case scenario here?

It seems to me, given the historical record of 1635, 1938, and 1954, that a high end category 3/low end category 4 of 125-130mph/940-950mb is the extreme upper end boundary. A 1 in 500 year event? 

First, it seems that any hurricane would need to be exceptionally strong as it reached the Bahamas. A high end 3 wouldn’t cut it as it’d almost certainly encounter weakening on final approach due to cooler SSTs north of the Gulf Stream, among other things. A high end 4 or a Dorian like intensity would certainly put us in the ballgame even if significant weakening occurs. I think it’d need to be a long track CV, because those would have almost certainly undergone ERCs that would both broaden the wind field and make it more inertially stable—less resistant to rapid weakening under marginally hostile conditions.

Second, it’d be a delicate environment up the coast, because too far off the SE coastline and you miss higher SSTs and TCHP needed to maintain a high end hurricane. Too close and you risk a myriad of troubles, from land interaction to shear, to continental dry air intrusions. I think a system with a Carol like track in the western Atlantic (coming from north of the Greater Antilles via the eastern MDR) could thread the needle, especially since it’d get a final boost (or at least a shot to maintain intensity) by paralleling the NC coast. It’d probably weaken some, but if it reached the Outer Banks as a moderate cat 4, which is already asking a hell of a lot given the historical record, you’re really talking about a historic impact.

Third, the track post Carolinas is everything. At least for CT, I think the worst case would be a slingshot north that takes the center just west of the Connecticut River and then bends NNE into CNE and NNE. At this point, if the other boxes are already checked we’re probably talking about a hurricane that has a large wind field and may be becoming post tropical so it wouldn’t matter as much that it’s rapidly weakening post landfall.

Finally, it’d need to be moving very fast. That’s obviously a staple of bona fide tropical strikes in New England. The faster it moves the more intensity it can retain as it moves over the colder waters and inland.

Honestly, even a legit cat 2 checking some of these boxes would be historic to catastrophic given the density of trees and number of weakened/dead ones still standing. It’s crazy to even think about. But I did.

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Honestly, even a legit cat 2 checking some of these boxes would be historic to catastrophic given the density of trees and number of weakened/dead ones still standing. It’s crazy to even think about. But I did.

Seeing what Bob did to a fairly small area of far SE MA and RI, I'd agree.  We got very lucky with Bob as it hooked more NE instead of NNE than forecasted, because that would have been widespread extensive damage to much of E CT/RI/MA had it tracked just 50 miles west, or even 25 really.

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Seeing that forecast for Irene has me thinking. What’s the reasonable worst case scenario here?

It seems to me, given the historical record of 1635, 1938, and 1954, that a high end category 3/low end category 4 of 125-130mph/940-950mb is the extreme upper end boundary. A 1 in 500 year event? 

First, it seems that any hurricane would need to be exceptionally strong as it reached the Bahamas. A high end 3 wouldn’t cut it as it’d almost certainly encounter weakening on final approach due to cooler SSTs north of the Gulf Stream, among other things. A high end 4 or a Dorian like intensity would certainly put us in the ballgame even if significant weakening occurs. I think it’d need to be a long track CV, because those would have almost certainly undergone ERCs that would both broaden the wind field and make it more inertially stable—less resistant to rapid weakening under marginally hostile conditions.

Second, it’d be a delicate environment up the coast, because too far off the SE coastline and you miss higher SSTs and TCHP needed to maintain a high end hurricane. Too close and you risk a myriad of troubles, from land interaction to shear, to continental dry air intrusions. I think a system with a Carol like track in the western Atlantic (coming from north of the Greater Antilles via the eastern MDR) could thread the needle, especially since it’d get a final boost (or at least a shot to maintain intensity) by paralleling the NC coast. It’d probably weaken some, but if it reached the Outer Banks as a moderate cat 4, which is already asking a hell of a lot given the historical record, you’re really talking about a historic impact.

Third, the track post Carolinas is everything. At least for CT, I think the worst case would be a slingshot north that takes the center just west of the Connecticut River and then bends NNE into CNE and NNE. At this point, if the other boxes are already checked we’re probably talking about a hurricane that has a large wind field and may be becoming post tropical so it wouldn’t matter as much that it’s rapidly weakening post landfall.

Finally, it’d need to be moving very fast. That’s obviously a staple of bona fide tropical strikes in New England. The faster it moves the more intensity it can retain as it moves over the colder waters and inland.

Honestly, even a legit cat 2 checking some of these boxes would be historic to catastrophic given the density of trees and number of weakened/dead ones still standing. It’s crazy to even think about. But I did.

I would think even a lower end category 2 would produce damage near the catastrophic end. A category 3 could probably make some areas unlivable for months, especially the shoreline. You would think power outages would persist several weeks in the hardest hit areas and you would probably be looking at >80-90% power outages for several days to week. 

I agree with pretty much everything you said here. These would be the conditions needed to facilitate such an event. Of course too exact track and where landfall were to occur would dictate just how catastrophic an event would be. 

One other factor to consider too is climate change and warmer waters, especially south of Long Island. If we were to ever see a strong hurricane moving up the coast, it may not weaken like it would have before, especially if the forward speed is quite fast. 

It really is just a matter of when for such a scenario to occur. I guess we can only hope that if such a storm did come up the coast it wouldn't make landfall and just brush off with the center passing east of Cape Cod. We would still get pounded but that might prevent a total worst case scenario...?

[moneypitmike]

Nice to have some warmer weather at peak climo in the next week or so--then we begin the slow climo-march downard.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Nice to have some warmer weather at peak climo in the next week or so--then we begin the slow climo-march downard.

Who could have imagined that it might be hot in mid July? Shocking.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tooooorrcchhh!!!