SnoSki14 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 This weather has been incredibly boring. At least GFS drops the 100s making things more interesting. The dry weather has been planting seeds for such a hot spell too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Frcst rn for tomorrow all but gone. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Over the past 2 days of forecasts, PoP has descended 70-60-50 and now 30%. GYX generally doesn't make qpf calls beyond 3rd period, so tomorrow jut came in range and it's <0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 5 but who's counting. This summer must be killing you. Everyone smilin but you and grumpy Tiger. Classic summer morning 58⁰ into the low 80s. Lock it up and in. Tic toc never the Glock just some nuts and a COCThen I step through the fog and I creep through the smog'Cause I'm Snoop Doggy (Who?) Doggy (What?) Doggy (Dog) You calling someone grumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 11 hours ago, kdxken said: Whatevs. Color me not concerned. By then we're halfway through meteorological summer and the step down is beginning. Couple warm days? we'll deal. Nothing can taint this epic summer! Yeah, like when it is 50 and COC all December into January without a flake of snow. We know it'll get cold in late January but by then, half of the winter is long gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, like when it is 50 and COC all December into January without a flake of snow. We know it'll get cold in late January but by then, half of the winter is long gone. It’s true. We all know it. No one robs Peter to pay Paul. It just is a shorter season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 108/82 max/min is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 108/82 max/min is awesome Talk about a toss lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Talk about a toss lol. Just looking through things and definitely differences between that GFS OP and GEFS out there long range. OP is a furnace. GEFS mean keeps weak troughing NW flow in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Just looking through things and definitely differences between that GFS OP and GEFS out there long range. OP is a furnace. GEFS mean keeps weak troughing NW flow in the means. I will say the EPS has a warm look too. It's not a lock, but that's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 There is something weird with the GFS and highly anomalously hot/cold patterns. It tends to get way overstated with heat and it also overstates extreme cold. Not sure if this applies across the board, but during those extreme cold blasts into say the Plains and even the Ohio Valley the GFS (MOS) will spit out like -20's for lows and the reality ends up being like -12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 108/82 max/min is awesome New record for New England's hottest day, topping Hot Saturday 1975 by one degree. Lock it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Yeah the GFS did that a few years ago with overmixing. I think it was that hot early July stretch a few years ago. IT had low dews and temps in the 110s. Reality was mid/upper 90s and oppressive dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 All most folks want / care about are high dews. Don’t care if it’s 88 or 98. Just will be dews of 73-78 daily 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All we want / care about are high dews. Don’t care if it’s 88 or 98. Just will be dews if 73-78 daily Too cold for you running in the morning in 60/60? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 At the rate we're going we'll have higher dewpoints in December when a strong low pressure goes to our west and we're dealing with a low topped severe squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 53 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, like when it is 50 and COC all December into January without a flake of snow. We know it'll get cold in late January but by then, half of the winter is long gone. Well, to be fair, I think there would be some skepticism if we had hit mid January with cold modeled in the long range after having had it either pushed back or not materializing all season to date. I'm sure at some point it will get warmer and more humid, but when and how much is TBD. I'll sell that modeled depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All most folks want / care about are high dews. Don’t care if it’s 88 or 98. Just will be dews if 73-78 daily I'd take the 108F personally, but if we can set record dews (80's) that would be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All two folks want / care about are high dews. Don’t care if it’s 88 or 98. Just will be dews if 73-78 daily Fixed it for ya. Enjoy the upcoming torch 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I'd take the 108F personally, but if we can set record dews (80's) that would be fun Have any of the 4 SNE climo sites ever had 80s dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 This is a nice stretch coming up in the meantime. A little bit for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Have any of the 4 SNE climo sites ever had 80s dews? Probably only briefly like when the sun comes out after a rain shower on a hot/humid day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Have any of the 4 SNE climo sites ever had 80s dews? that's a Q for one of the smart people. lol I have seen 80's dews here in NE, I'd guess PVD BDL and BOS have, noso sure about ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 BOS: no PVD: 7/1977 ORH: no BDL: multiple but brief 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: that's a Q for one of the smart people. lol I have seen 80's dews here in NE, I'd guess PVD BDL and BOS have, noso sure about ORH. Not on those macs .. those are false readings with the pavement. Always tack on 3-5 dews to compensate 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: super GWDLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: BOS: no PVD: 7/1977 ORH: no BDL: multiple but brief I would be willing to bet that some of our highest dews likely come from residual tropical systems coming up the coast. I could be wrong here but didn't we see upper 70's dews when the remnants of Katrina passed to our west in 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There is something weird with the GFS and highly anomalously hot/cold patterns. It tends to get way overstated with heat and it also overstates extreme cold. Not sure if this applies across the board, but during those extreme cold blasts into say the Plains and even the Ohio Valley the GFS (MOS) will spit out like -20's for lows and the reality ends up being like -12. I've been railing on about this for 5 years ... LOL But, it's mostly on the cold side that it exhibits this tendency - will explain below how/why I believe it then lends to 'spiking' warmth too much. And...these are characteristics more observable out in time, giving the suggestion that it is time dependent. There appears to be an "accumulation" of colder heights over on the polar side of the ambient westerlies. This causes the base-state gradient to become biased, ...which expresses in fast base-state geopotential wind velocities ( mid and upper levels). Faster velocities directly/physically force R-wave structures; a general principle that immediately connotes the GFS may get a bit exuberant (heh) in setting up R-wave ordering. The other aspect ...sometimes this means more x-coordinate stretching/placement of troughs, that need some 5 or 10 deg of longitude back peddling from 270 hours <-- These big words make it sound almost like a big huge deal, but it's not - it's more like,...just enough to be really annoying. Think of all this above in better terms of 'tendency to do so'/subtle. But, subtle variances in the near terms, "butterfly" out in time? So if the GFS has a 'decimal'-scaled problem with too much height falls, that wouldn't be very noticeable inside of 2 or 3 days...maybe not even 4. But given a substantive passage of time, a cumulative effect becomes more observable. So, if 'wave harmonics' ( destructive vs constructive) emerge different signals as a 2ndary product of all that maelstrom, the GFS tends to give these faux warm up(cool downs) because the superpositioning out in time was fake or baked to begin with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I'd bet on Sam Darnold throwing for 7000 yards and 75 TD's while leading the Panthers to the 1st prefect Super Bowl season since the 72 Dolphins than 4 straight 100+ degree days at Bradley.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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