Maestrobjwa Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12z ensembles seem to hint at warmer drier period ss we head into the 3rd week of July Dry as in less humidity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 ECMWF ensb still trash.. probably will always be. You need to build a model on science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: ECMWF ensb still trash.. probably will always be. You need to build a model on science. Are fluid dynamics, mathematics, hydrology, thermodynamics, etc. not science any more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 5 hours ago, mattie g said: Are fluid dynamics, mathematics, hydrology, thermodynamics, etc. not science any more? Only magic 8 balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 July 17-23 may be hot. Could be nearing 100, or go over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 On 7/8/2022 at 8:55 AM, mattie g said: Are fluid dynamics, mathematics, hydrology, thermodynamics, etc. not science any more? 15 day GFS ensemble mean hits it at like 85-90% for a stronger signal-pattern (>120dm in the mean). There are different intentions for different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Real hot pattern setting up for July 17-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Real hot pattern setting up for July 17-23. Only about 6 weeks late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Only about 6 weeks late. Is it really gonna get hot that week is Chuck being Chuck? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is it really gonna get hot that week is Chuck being Chuck? Lol It would be relatively warmer as advertised, but nothing unusual/unexpected for this area mid summer. Based on the LR means the 'increased' heat won't be because of any significant shift in the pattern, but rather we will be into the window for peak heat climo. The h5 pattern progression as advertised for that period and beyond looks pretty familiar- western upper ridge nudges east, gets flattened, then retrogrades west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 ^will verify warmer, 95-100 for a probable average of 5 days in there somewhere. 1 or 2 days may break 100, 101, 102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: It would be relatively warmer as advertised, but nothing unusual/unexpected for this area mid summer. Based on the LR means the 'increased' heat won't be because of any significant shift in the pattern, but rather we will be into the window for peak heat climo. The h5 pattern progression as advertised for that period and beyond looks pretty familiar- western upper ridge nudges east, gets flattened, then retrogrades west. Are you saying the warmest temps come in July? Kinda like predicting big cold in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Are you saying the warmest temps come in July? Kinda like predicting big cold in January. Shocking. Not a pattern I would expect to produce 5 days of 100. Ens means could be off. Chuck will probably be right about big heat eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: eventually Yes. Year not relevant 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 A lot of pattern-energy for it to happen. Clouds aren't building so high in the atmosphere as they could. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Still no indication on the means of any prolonged 'big heat' for the MA and NE over the next 10 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still no indication on the means of any prolonged 'big heat' for the MA and NE over the next 10 days. I'd say we've made out pretty well for being in July, no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 16, 2022 Author Share Posted July 16, 2022 WB 0Z EPS next 15 days looks like summer like heat finally on its way for a stretch of time. Showers will continue but no tropical storms yet…. Perfect beach/pool weather!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Pretty high SD +WPO coming up. Surprisingly, the greater temp correlation is August, although episodes usually last only 7-13 days, so the center might be warmer. +EPO and WPO overperform here as temps vs short/medium term forecasts, so we can go higher the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Red line will probably verify warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 16, 2022 Author Share Posted July 16, 2022 WB 12Z GFS finally has some scorchers in the long range… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 9 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS finally has some scorchers in the long range… I’ll go with the under 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll go with the under GFS op runs at hour 318 always nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 The advertised pattern on the means suggest big heat remains in the south central/western US. There will be some 90+ days in our region for sure. Typical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 19 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS finally has some scorchers in the long range… Both the GFS and Euro have been occasionally trying to roll over the Plains heat to us in the longer term, and each time they’ve (correctly) backed off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 We really only have another 2-3wks to get the big heat before it starts to cool off in time for fall. Hopefully we can avoid any crazy temps again this year. This is the first year I'll have been retired so will not have to work for September into October for outage season. It's always the best weather then and I've always had to work like 60hr weeks, but not this year. Can't wait to actually enjoy the fall weather for once. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 On 7/16/2022 at 2:16 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS finally has some scorchers in the long range… GFS was about 9 degrees too warm in Texas subtract that much is my guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 We are underperforming actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 On 7/17/2022 at 2:18 PM, IronTy said: We really only have another 2-3wks to get the big heat before it starts to cool off in time for fall. Hopefully we can avoid any crazy temps again this year. This is the first year I'll have been retired so will not have to work for September into October for outage season. It's always the best weather then and I've always had to work like 60hr weeks, but not this year. Can't wait to actually enjoy the fall weather for once. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk We have a 'moderately' warm period upcoming. More humid than hot. IF the seasonal trend continues, maybe we can largely avoid the second summer of Sept and Oct, and have seasonable temps and humidity. Would be nice for a change, but we are probably due for a longwave pattern shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 WB 12Z EURO also now bringing the heat this weekend… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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