Hurricane Bonnie EPAC

[WxWatcher007]

Recon en route to investigate PTC 2. It looks like it has organized overnight, but may just be short of having a closed LLC. We'll see what recon finds. 

[wthrmn654]

There's also a noaa plane flying and dropping stuff near Cuba

[GaWx]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

-------------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

The system has changed little in organization today, and 
in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance.  Most of the 
heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over 
the northern portion of the disturbance.  Reports from a NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that 
the current intensity remains near 35 kt.  High-resolution visible 
satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a 
center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface 
observations are still not very conclusive.  Radar images from 
Curacao also do not yet show a definite center.  The system 
could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.

The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt.  
There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. 
The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to 
the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for 
most of the forecast period.  The latest HCCA prediction shows a 
slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due 
to the input from the ECMWF model.  The new NHC forecast is not 
much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther 
south after 36 hours or so.

Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, 
it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence 
of the South American land mass.  The system is expected to 
approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a 
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the 
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.  After some expected weakening from 
crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the 
eastern North Pacific basin.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC 
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia 
through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by 
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the 
potential for mudslides.

2.  Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands 
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along 
the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of 
Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

3.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch 
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with 
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 11.6N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/0600Z 11.8N  71.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  30/1800Z 12.0N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 11.7N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 11.4N  82.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 11.1N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/1800Z 11.2N  87.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  03/1800Z 12.3N  92.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

^ Interesting stat. Here is that record tying 10th PTC advisory:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 70.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[WxWatcher007]

Much like 95L, PTC Two remains a disorganized mess, with convection well away from the apparent center which has finally crossed the Guajira Peninsula. 

Judging by early visible imagery and surface observations however, it should finally be able to acquire a name today. From there we’ll see how quickly intensification happens.

[Windspeed]

This thing just needed a little more latitude and could have easily been a June major. Could have played out similiar to a Felix based on the upper pattern. But as it stands now, though it may have just enough time to flirt with hurricane status prior to central American landfall, it needs to slow forward motion and develop an inner core fast. I never got too serious about PTC2 due to the low latitude track and interaction with SA, but now that it has cleared the SA landmass, got to watch for how fast genesis occurs today and if there is any slowdown in its trek over the SW Caribbean.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This thing just needed a little more latitude and could have easily been a June major. Could have played out similiar to a Felix based on the upper pattern. But as it stands now, though it may have just enough time to flirt with hurricane status prior to central American landfall, it needs to slow forward motion and develop an inner core fast. I never got too serious about PTC2 due to the low latitude track and interaction with SA, but now that it has cleared the SA landmass, got to watch for how fast genesis occurs today and if there is any slowdown in its trek over the SW Caribbean.

 

Howdy! Good to see you posting.  

Recon en route.

[WxWatcher007]

High end slop

[WxWatcher007]

It looks like recon finally found a center 

[WxWatcher007]

Right on cue

Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

 

[olafminesaw]

The HWRF has Bonnie making landfall in Costa Rica as a TS. A TS or stronger has never made landfall in Costa Rica in the satellite era, looking at the NOAA database 

[hawkeye_wx]

Bonnie is down to 996 mb following a strong burst of convection over the center.

[WxWatcher007]

It took forever, but Bonnie is finally looking like a legit system. Fortunate for Central America because this one is really getting it together as it closes in on landfall. Evidence of an eyewall on microwave imagery. 

[WxWatcher007]

Can we also get a thread name change please?  

[WxWatcher007]

Recon confirms nascent eyewall trying to close off before landfall. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 1:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Bonnie
Storm Number: 02 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 1:22:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11.01N 83.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (479 km) to the WNW (298°) from Panama City, Panama.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 10kts (From the S at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the east
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the NW (318°) of center fix at 1:21:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 50kts (From the ENE at 57.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NW (318°) of center fix at 1:20:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the E (82°) of center fix at 1:24:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 140° at 46kts (From the SE at 52.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 1:26:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) which was observed 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) from the flight level center at 1:20:30Z

[BYG Jacob]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can we also get a thread name change please?  

I don’t know how. Can one of the mods do it?

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

I don’t know how. Can one of the mods do it?

It’s cool. It’s easy to do. Just go to the original post and hit edit in the menu on the top right. You can just change to Tropical Storm Bonnie, and when it becomes a hurricane change it again to note its maximum intensity.

 

[BYG Jacob]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s cool. It’s easy to do. Just go to the original post and hit edit in the menu on the top right. You can just change to Tropical Storm Bonnie, and when it becomes a hurricane change it again to note its maximum intensity.

 

Fixed! Might end up being an EPAC hurricane which would be interesting.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

Fixed! Might end up being an EPAC hurricane which would be interesting.

Thanks! Yes, the crossovers are pretty uncommon. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Corrected advisory number

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.

Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico.  Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth.  For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase.  Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 11.2N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.7N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 12.5N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.4N  96.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 14.3N  99.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

[NorthHillsWx]

Bonnie has become a picturesque storm this evening. Very small eye and beautiful cloud pattern on visible. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Bonnie has become a picturesque storm this evening. Very small eye and beautiful cloud pattern on visible. 

Definitely maximizing its potential out in the EPAC. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Bonnie looks like a major this morning 

[NorthHillsWx]

11 am confirms it, Bonnie is the first major of the year in either the Atlantic or East pacific basins  

[WxWatcher007]

For posterity. 

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core
structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band 
features in the west and south parts of the cyclone.  The 
surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few 
hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much.  The initial 
intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported 
by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.

It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun 
to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, 
and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours.
Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the 
period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 
12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement.
Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and 
ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler 
oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable 
thermodynamic surrounding environment.  A combination of these 
negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly 
weaken through the remainder of the period and the official 
forecast follows suit.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. 
A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone 
should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the  
entire forecast period.  Around mid-period, however, a weakness in 
the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California 
peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed.  
The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond 
day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[nycwinter]

My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me

 

 i had to say it lol..!!