Hurricane Bonnie EPAC

[BYG Jacob]

Thread for what will probably be a June major 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Too soon prediction based on the more reliable Euro, GFS and their ensembles, most likely final landfall will be in NIcaragua.

[Floydbuster]

Interesting that some models are showing a system forming near Texas, maybe a weak tropical storm. If that occurs, that could affect the ridging above 94L by the time the system would be in the Central or Western Caribbean. Another thing to monitor. 

[wxmx]

Looking at the models/ensembles, the stronger/earlier development, the farther right it goes, looks like a good example of beta drift.

[BYG Jacob]

That's not something you see everyday for a June storm

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located 
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined 
today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this 
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
during the early to middle part of next week.  This system is 
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical 
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across 
the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

This one has legs. Looks like our first shot at a hurricane this season. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

DMIN did a job on it yesterday, DMAX did its magic, looks a little better now than this time yesterday, I guess the trend is in the right direction.  I don't see an ensemble model , not even CMC ensembles, that aren't pretty tightly clustered with most aimed at Nicaragua.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

DMIN did a job on it yesterday, DMAX did its magic, looks a little better now than this time yesterday, I guess the trend is in the right direction.  I don't see an ensemble model , not even CMC ensembles, that aren't pretty tightly clustered with most aimed at Nicaragua.

Yeah, it looks like this one stays south. Interestingly, it looks like the ensembles are hinting at the following wave having a shot at development.

[GaWx]

Hope this doesn't end up rainwise another devastating Eta or Iota down there!

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hope this doesn't end up rainwise another devastating Eta or Iota down there!

I think a Cat 2 is very possible down there. The waters are boiling and the models seem to show a good upper level environment. As long as it doesn't race too fast or get easterly shear.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Bonnie, as a name, has been around at least since the Reagan era.

 

DSHIP using TABM steering keeps 94L in check in much of the Caribbean (proximity to South America), but HWRF is starting to intensify it before the end of the run.  Too early to call on another 2028 Bonnie, I'd say.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I think a Cat 2 is very possible down there. The waters are boiling and the models seem to show a good upper level environment. As long as it doesn't race too fast or get easterly shear.

 While very important for at and near the coast especially and nothing to be taken lightly, I'm not quite as concerned about how strong it may get as I am about track and speed. That's because despite Eta and Iota both being of historical strength, you may recall that it was the incredibly heavy rainfall from slow movement as opposed to the winds and surge that lead to a large portion of the devastation and casualties. The river flooding was horrible. Then again, there likely is a good bit of correlation between how strong they get and how much moisture they can produce and retain for several days after landfall. The areas hit hardest by flooding rains included W Honduras and parts of Guatemala. At the time, Eta caused by far the worst flooding there since Mitch of 1998. And then came another with Iota! The number of refugees caused by this pair of disasters was immense! I just hope this one is moving at a good clip to minimize the potential number of hours of heavy rainfall.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon has arrived at the invest. The key thing is whether it has a closed LLC.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I see SW winds to the SE of the main convective blob, but I don't see NW or W winds in the low cloud motion, satellite alone, I'd guess a sharp trough, not a closed low/

[WxWatcher007]

We have wind (trade aided) but now LLC yet.

[WxWatcher007]

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

[WxWatcher007]

NHC expects this to become the first hurricane of the season.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical
wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that
the system has not yet developed a closed circulation.  However the
plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the
northern portion of the system.  The disturbance is producing some
cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well
organized.  Since there is a good chance that the disturbance
will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward
Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two.  The environment looks fairly favorable for
development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that
bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA.

Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the
initial motion is about 285/16 kt.  A strong 500 mb subtropical
ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system
through the forecast period.  This steering scenario should cause a
west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

2.  Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z  8.6N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/0600Z  9.3N  53.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  28/1800Z 10.1N  57.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  29/0600Z 10.8N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 11.4N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 11.8N  69.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 12.1N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 12.2N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 12.3N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Hugely track dependent.  50 or 100 miles further North than forecast in 2 or 3 days would be big intensity wise, although I'd note ECENS, hurricane models except HWRF (bit more offshore and Cat 2), GEFS and GEPS are remarkably clustered and support the NHC track of this hugging the coast of S America.

[Amped]

Models have really trended Blah with this storm.  It just tracks too close to the south American coast to really get it's act together.     Then has 30 hrs or so to organize before hitting central America, where it could potentially spin up rapidly. just before  landfall as a CAT1 or strong TS.       Disappointed considering there's a lot more potential if it tracked further north.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Models have really trended Blah with this storm.  It just tracks too close to the south American coast to really get it's act together.     Then has 30 hrs or so to organize before hitting central America, where it could potentially spin up rapidly. just before  landfall as a CAT1 or strong TS.       Disappointed considering there's a lot more potential if it tracked further north.

 Additional good news is that it appears it will be moving fast enough to prevent a repeat of the Eta and Iota flooding disasters in Central America though that's not set in stone yet. The projected speed of movement is 2-3 times as fast as those two disasters.

[Floydbuster]

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Additional good news is that it appears it will be moving fast enough to prevent a repeat of the Eta and Iota flooding disasters in Central America though that's not set in stone yet. The projected speed of movement is 2-3 times as fast as those two disasters.

Yeah I was thinking of you today with the 12z Euro crossover run lol. It looks like this’ll be a relatively quick mover with that big ridge over the top. 

[NorthHillsWx]

PTC2 still looks ragged this morning, though it does look like storms have consolidated some on the northern end of the trough axis. If this apparent center becomes the COC that could be very important as it pertains to intensity down the road. Obviously the further north the system forms, the higher the likelihood it avoids land and has a greater chance to strengthen. Where the COC forms is going to be absolutely critical to this system’s intensity and could be the difference between a cat 2 and a TS when this storm makes landfall in Central America. Signs this morning seem like it is favoring the northern side of the trough axis, which obviously would nudge the track northward if that becomes the center 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon confirms the trough is still open with no COC. Still finding TS force winds under the deepest convection

[GaWx]

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 9.8 North, longitude 57.5 West.  The system is moving 
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the 
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

--------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also
exhibits some banding features.  However, reports from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined
center of circulation at this time.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this 
afternoon.

The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist 
atmospheric environment for the next couple of days.  However, 
interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit 
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea later this week.  More significant strengthening, possibly into 
a hurricane, could occur over the latter area.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion 
estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt.  A strong mid-tropospheric 
ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this 
week.  Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion 
is expected through the forecast period.  The official forecast 
track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected 
dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday 
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of 
Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening.

3.  There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast 
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late 
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with 
land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z  9.8N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 10.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/1200Z 11.3N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0000Z 11.7N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 12.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 12.2N  75.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 12.1N  78.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 12.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1200Z 12.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

Thanks, Mike.

NHC 5 PM update:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some 
banding features over the northern portion of the system.  
Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, 
including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the 
Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed 
circulation.  

Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a 
low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next 
couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the 
system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone 
on Wednesday.  However interaction with land, including low-level 
inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit 
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea later this week.  More significant strengthening, possibly into 
a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the 
official forecast.  Late in the forecast period, the global models 
suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact 
after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC 
forecast.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt.  
There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A 
strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to 
the north of the system through this week.  Therefore a continued 
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the 
forecast period.  The official forecast track remains about the 
same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands, 
northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday. 
Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3.  There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's 
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts 
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 10.1N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0600Z 10.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/1800Z 11.4N  66.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0600Z 11.9N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 12.1N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 12.1N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 12.0N  80.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 12.0N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1800Z 13.0N  90.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GaWx]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting
better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in
the northern semicircle.  However, surface observations from
Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet
developed a closed circulation.  Therefore, it still has the status 
of a potential tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 35 
kt based on the various surface observations.

The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and 
warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this 
should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr.  
Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from 
the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster 
development appears likely.  The new intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane 
strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point.  
Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that 
the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after 
crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast.

The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a 
somewhat uncertain  285/23 kt.  A general westward motion near or 
just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in 
forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the 
presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  A south of west 
motion may occur for a time while the system is over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track is lies close to the various consensus models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the 
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through 
late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3.  There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 10.9N  62.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1200Z 11.3N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  30/0000Z 11.8N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/1200Z 12.3N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 12.3N  76.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 12.2N  80.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 12.0N  82.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 12.0N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
120H  04/0000Z 13.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven