Winter 2022-23 Early Speculation

[John1122]

Last year this one fired up in April. I think the big March snowstorm for most of us may have sated the enthusiasm for a while. The hot weather has me longing for winter and this thread is always one I look forward to just to speculate on better weather days. 

The La Nina watch has me excited, even though it's only around a 59%, chance for early winter La Nina. It would likely be weak and weak Nina is usually good times for the area. Moderate Nina's tend to see the Plateau and west do well, strong is more often mid-state and west. Weak tends to see a weaker SE Ridge and we generally see a good storm track Valley wide. 

The QBO has risen two months in a row now. So it's negative cycle is finally coming to a close it would seem. Usually it rapidly heads positive once it starts. The last time we saw the trend towards positive in May/June was 2015-16. We torched that December but had a cold and snow January that came in around 4-6 degrees BN. February came in right at normal with a really good snow event. So the rising QBO doesn't mean doom for winter. 

Long range models, which are notoriously volatile and inaccurate are showing either torch the whole winter or a relaxation in January towards cold. They are consistently showing the West as being the area most AN though. I'll take that, as we mostly suffer only when the West is BN.  Their AN forecasts would suggest ridgeing in that region. We just don't want stubborn troughing to set up over the West. 

Models are generally showing continued dry weather through winter but BN precip in winter often means colder weather is around and isn't a negative for snowfall. AN precip here usually means big warm storms that just produce a lot of cold rain. 

[John1122]

This wouldn't be bad and looks like a typical weak/mod LA Nina. I'd guess last winter's map would look similar in our area. 

 

 

Snowfall for the entire Valley is normal in weak Nina's. Above normal to our NW, which is our cold source region. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

[fountainguy97]

Starting to look toward the winter and I agree with everything here.  Early peaking La Niña or Lanada looks all but guaranteed for winter. 
 

I see a decent start possible but into 2023 it's going to be hard not to torch. 
 

good news is we are due a nice rebound to El nino for 23-24!

[nrgjeff]

My early thoughts. Travel will be required to see good snow. What's new in the South?

[John1122]

The QBR at 30mb continued it's rapid rise, moving from -26 to +0.39.  So we will probably see a rising QBO throughout winter. Not ideal but not a death sentence either.  It may stay positive but should be falling again by winter 2023-24.

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 6/21/2022 at 4:05 PM, John1122 said:

This wouldn't be bad and looks like a typical weak/mod LA Nina. I'd guess last winter's map would look similar in our area. 

 

 

I like it, I think we are also naturally trending warmer in the NW, and scientifically due for a change in the Midwest/Great Lakes to above normal, if not this Winter, next and after. Will be hard to do below average in the same places this Winter though, I think. 

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

Considering bumping Jan-Feb to +3F for the 60 day time frame.  With the QBO set to be firmly positive by the winter in conjunction with a La Nina and poor PDO state for cooler temps...this winter has some torch potential.  That said, sometimes when things seemed line-up up perfectly for heat or cold, they do they opposite.  So, I remain guarded.  This winter is a tough call - three straight Ninas?   That said, if the Nina is weak enough, I think we still see plenty of cold and plenty of warm - similar swings to last winter.   For DJF, I would say temps will finish AN to well AN.  Areas east of the Plateau should keep there hopes tempered in regards to snow, especially NE TN.   Just not a great set-up at this point.  That said, keep on cooling the Pacific so that the gradients return...and I am good.  

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

Re-upped my model package this month.   So, here goes.  Temp forecast above looks similar to the Euro seasonal which just came out.  I am not tooting my own horn, I just don' want to have to retype it.  November is warm.  Rest of the seasonals look on target.  Remember. TOTAL crapshoot from this far out.

I will say if the seasonals are correct....we can absolutely live with that.

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, of the third year La Ninas, how many of those winters began early, i.e. December?

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122, of the third year La Ninas, how many of those winters began early, i.e. December?

Dec 1975 was -3 here but near normal in the Eastern areas, however that was a strong Nina which is really warm overall for everyone except the very far NW forum areas. December 2000 was exceptionally cold.  -10 to -12 from the Plateau and West, -6 to -8 far eastern areas. It was a weak La Nina.

[nrgjeff]

Primary pattern I'm going with persistent SER bigger than what I infer from NOAA. In fact late fall could get really dry again. Not looking like a fall severe wx season; maybe the Midwest.

Secondary pattern should be better. Occasionally those La Nina West troughs will couple with AK ridge and lumber east through the Mid South. A good one sliding east rather than cutting would benefit all. 

Overall I'm AN temps entire forum and BN winter fun east section of the forum. West half could have some winter excitement. At least a clean SER is sunny!

Note that cynicism plays a large role in my forecast until about November. 

[PowellVolz]

Thought I’d drop this off and see what you all think..

.

[John1122]

Just read an article about the stratospheric cooling that's happened this year in the Southern Hemisphere. The article noted that cold stratosphere conditions in the Southern Hemisphere as they move into summer usually indicate the opposite in the Northern Hemisphere.

There was a moderate correlation to a -NAO in the winter here as the Southern stratosphere cooled over the Polar regions there. There was also a possible connection to warming/weakened Polar Vortex conditions over the north pole when the stratosphere was colder than normal in the South Pole areas. 

The stratosphere down South is hitting record lows and that's drifting futher South towards the pole as the year is wearing on. 

So possible good news for the winter lovers, of which we mostly seem to be as a group. 

[John1122]

Euro Snowfall vs Normal Dec/Jan

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

[John1122]

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

I think you guys and west Tennessee might be primed for a third snowy winter in a row, especially with the Nina looking to be in the weak range. The spine of the Apps seems to often be the battle ground in that set up, with potential for big early snows if it behaves anything like past 3rd year Ninas. 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I agree with John above. February chart is as classic as it gets! I-40 specials; crap south. Can you hear my dripping cynicism as I type? Chattanooga blanked probably verifies!

Now I also agree with Jax that severe could get going again fall and winter. How about January snow Hoosier Alley with tornadoes Dixie Alley? Well probably more likely Nov-Dec and again in Feb. If that happens in January. Oh wait, it did this year!

PDO is looking quite bearish Southeast. Mid South and of course I-40 can still get it from cutters. HSV to CHA, I'll see you under the grungy meso this winter!

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

I like this forecast.  Probably the kiss of death, but I am gonna lock this in with no changes.

[nrgjeff]

Still seems on track. Chatty will depend on a lucky track. Agree the Mid-South looks better for snow than the true Tennessee Valley.

TRI has that nerve racking taking turns with wind direction between Kingsport and JC. Probably splits a little both ways. Upslope one side. Heartbreak ridge the other.

Clint Eastwood movie reference.

[Carvers Gap]

Courtesy of the MA Winter Thread.  Pour yourself a cup of coffee(or two), this gonna take a bit to read....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[Met1985]

On 9/26/2022 at 10:03 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Courtesy of the MA Winter Thread.  Pour yourself a cup of coffee(or two), this gonna take a bit to read....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

I was just reading another paper online today about the PV already being disturbed very early on in its maturity and what implications may come down the line later this winter.

[nrgjeff]

Regarding the PV, Southern Hemisphere, et al. Congrats Mid South! Here in southeast Tennessee I'll enjoy our obligatory SER anyway.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Regarding the PV, Southern Hemisphere, et al. Congrats Mid South! Here in southeast Tennessee I'll enjoy our obligatory SER anyway.

LOL.  I generally distrust complex wx teleconnections, but it was worth a read.  Niña is SER in default in my backyard for J-F.   

[nrgjeff]

Looks like we will use up our good winter weather pattern in October.

When's the next chance of severe weather? 

UPDATE: 12Z Tue Euro, I was only joking!

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks solidly chill.  And yeah, wouldn't be the first time to use up a great pattern in October.  Seems to be a trend during the past decade or so.  I have seen way more early season snow/cold than normal of late.  General rule -> Tropical hybrid system which produces inland snow wrecks havoc on early winter projected patterns. 

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS looks solidly chill.  And yeah, wouldn't be the first time to use up a great pattern in October.  Seems to be a trend during the past decade or so.  I have seen way more early season snow/cold than normal of late.  General rule -> Tropical hybrid system which produces inland snow wrecks havoc on early winter projected patterns. 

2000-01 was a nina and featured a much below avg October. Fairly cold Winter for the area albeit rather dry with not alot of Snow.

     95-96 cold late October and November. 

     77-78 featured measurable snow Oct. 13 down to 1600 ft during Squalls. However, enso was neutral that Winter. 

       However, as you alluded, it seems early snow/cold has been an omen of late. 

[raindancewx]

I'm actually fairly bullish on this region for snow this winter - but I still have you guys pretty warm. I put out my forecast for anyone curious. I think the elevation could really help in Nov and Mar when some relatively powerful/cold systems come through as snow producers.

https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm actually fairly bullish on this region for snow this winter - but I still have you guys pretty warm. I put out my forecast for anyone curious. I think the elevation could really help in Nov and Mar when some relatively powerful/cold systems come through as snow producers.

https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook

Yeah, that fits with what many have been saying here for a bit. 

[Carvers Gap]

On 10/4/2022 at 10:22 PM, Daniel Boone said:

2000-01 was a nina and featured a much below avg October. Fairly cold Winter for the area albeit rather dry with not alot of Snow.

     95-96 cold late October and November. 

     77-78 featured measurable snow Oct. 13 down to 1600 ft during Squalls. However, enso was neutral that Winter. 

       However, as you alluded, it seems early snow/cold has been an omen of late. 

Yeah, @John1122 may have some additional analogs as well along that line.  Every once in a while, winter hits and holds during this type of ENSO pattern.