madwx Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hopefully that is the real temp and not a rounded ob. MSP officially hits 100 at the 4 PM ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, madwx said: MSP officially hits 100 at the 4 PM ob. Noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 LOT has 99 at ORD tomorrow. That better not happen... I mean, that has to be one of the worst numbers for a wx nerd. Would rather come up short by 2. Tomorrow's progged 850 mb temps are actually about the same as today in N IL, so at first glance you'd be wondering how it could outperform today. But there a couple things working in favor... 1) temps tomorrow morning will have a several degree head start over this morning and 2) mixing should be deeper/more efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 MSP now up to 101. Old record high was 98. https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1538991985003941890?s=20&t=aKsREXcyLjlBXgGnN7n5FQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 Heat kind of wussy in the DVN cwa, with most areas in the 90-93 range. Tomorrow a little warmer, but will fail to hit 100 again. Yawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 Feel like I may be a degree high at Midway tomorrow. If I could change, would maybe go 102 there. Gonna hope and pray that ORD pulls out 100, but low-medium confidence at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 On 6/18/2022 at 12:42 PM, Hoosier said: Tldr version: Mon: 95 ORD, 98 MDW Tue: 100 ORD, 103 MDW Actual Mon highs: 95 ORD 97 MDW Was actually going to go 97 at MDW before deciding on 98. Just missed out on perfection today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Actual Mon highs: 95 ORD 97 MDW Was actually going to go 97 at MDW before deciding on 98. Just missed out on perfection today lolyou may have won the battle, but I still don’t think you win the war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: you may have won the battle, but I still don’t think you win the war. I didn't realize I was in a battle or war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Actual Mon highs: 95 ORD 97 MDW Was actually going to go 97 at MDW before deciding on 98. Just missed out on perfection today lol To add... 95 RFD 95 Ex-Home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 Gino is going for it. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Going forecast is in good shape with just some minor tweaks to tomorrow`s temperatures and dewpoints. Have generally bumped up temps a couple degrees, which now explicitly has O`hare reaching 100, Midway 102, and Rockford 100. Guidance, in particular the GFS and NAM, have been exhibiting a significant cool bias. For instance, this morning`s 12z GFS forecast high temps for Monday were 6-11F too low across the area with substantially higher dewpoints as well. The recently developing flash drought with substantially evaporation and little rainfall over the past week or so has left top soil quite dry. Guidance is likely overdoing evapotranspiration resulting in a significant 2m Td high bias and 2m temp low bias. The ECMWF has been performing much better with surface temps and dewpoints, but has maintained the small cool bias in temps which it has exhibited for months now. Above the surface, there is good agreement between the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF showing between 2-4C of warming tomorrow afternoon at 925mb, compared with today`s 925mb temps. That degree of warming at 925mb should equate to surface temps Tuesday running 3-5F hotter than today. Given full or nearly full sunshine, should see deep mixing which should also allow dewpoints to mix out in the afternoon, particularly southeastern 2/3rd of the CWA. Farther northwest toward Rockford and Dixon, it is possible dewpoints may hold on a bit better as they start to feel the effects of some moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front. That should result in slightly higher heat indices there, possibly peaking around 105F assuming dewpoints don`t mix out more than anticipated. Elsewhere, dewpoints should mix out sufficiently to result in heat indices near or even a hair lower than ambient air temps. The guidance most aggressive with convection along the front tomorrow happens to be the models with the highest forecast dewpoints. It is certainly possible that enough moisture could pool just ahead of the front to support convection, but confidence is not high and no changes were made to the going forecast pops which are in the lower end of the chance range. Updated forecast has been sent. These updated high temps for tomorrow now put both Chicago and Rockford potentially within reach of the daily record highs. For June 21 the record highs are: Chicago 101 (1988) Rockford 100 (1988) If Rockford or O`hare reach 100F tomorrow, it`d be the first time since 2012 that either Chicago or Rockford reach 100F. - Izzi && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 I wonder why Minneapolis was 101 today and Rochester was only 96 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Still 92 at MSP and St Cloud as of 10pm. At least the 30mph winds may be providing some relief lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 88 MDW and 86 ORD as of 10AM OBS. Today should be closer to the 10/10 ‘rule’, so feel confident in my locked in call (100 MDW & 98 ORD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 Here's a little prayer to mother nature for everybody in and around Chicago. Mother Nature, who art around us Respected be thy name Give us this day our high of 100 And forgive us our whining As we forgive those who whine around us And lead us not to underachieving But deliver us from 99 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 90 at ORD. It warmed 12 degrees after this time yesterday, so can afford to fall off that pace a little, but obviously not much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: 88 MDW and 86 ORD as of 10AM OBS. Today should be closer to the 10/10 ‘rule’, so feel confident in my locked in call (100 MDW & 98 ORD). it's going to 99 isn't it? The weenie prayer sealed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Baum said: it's going to 99 isn't it? The weenie prayer sealed it. The deciding factor, for better or worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 95 MDW and 93 ORD as of noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 I didn't realize I was in a battle or war. there’s always a battle/war. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 I had some benchmark hourly temps for when Midway hit 100 on 6/14. Some setups have more warming potential than others though so the numbers don't just automatically transfer over. For this one, I'd really like to see 95 at ORD by 1 pm. 96 at that time would just about lock it in imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Here's a little prayer to mother nature for everybody in and around Chicago. Mother Nature, who art around us Respected be thy name Give us this day our high of 100 And forgive us our whining As we forgive those who whine around us And lead us not to underachieving But deliver us from 99 Think of all the elderly and poor that will suffer. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: Think of all the elderly and poor that will suffer. Or not. There's no heat advisory for the city, so this heat really doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Another 90 in Dayton. That's 5 this month, plus one 89F high temperature. Looks like a near certainty that there will be at least 3 more, and potentially as many as 5 more, by Sunday. That will bring the total to between 8 and 10 for June with several days remaining. Spartman must be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 97 MDW and 95 ORD coming up to 1PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Another 90 in Dayton. That's 5 this month, plus one 89F high temperature. Looks like a near certainty that there will be at least 3 more, and potentially as many as 5 more, by Sunday. That will bring the total to between 8 and 10 for June with several days remaining. Spartman must be thrilled.poor guy has nothing to complain about for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 97 MDW and 95 ORD coming up to 1PM. 98 gonna be the number at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 I've been having a friendly back and forth with Gino (who bumped ORD and RFD to 100 with evening update yesterday) re. whether ORD would hit 100 today. I've been going with 99 since earlier this morning and feel decent with that call but 100 is definitely still in play. Personally rooting for it to happen because 100 has become one of the unicorn temperature extremes in my time here (almost 12 years now), with it not happening since the legendary 2012 summer. Here's what I had as of like 8 or 9am today:MDW: 101ORD: 99RFD: 99Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I've been having a friendly back and forth with Gino (who bumped ORD and RFD to 100 with evening update yesterday) re. whether ORD would hit 100 today. I've been going with 99 since earlier this morning and feel decent with that call but 100 is definitely still in play. Personally rooting for it to happen because 100 has become one of the unicorn temperature extremes in my time here (almost 12 years now), with it not happening since the legendary 2012 summer. Here's what I had as of like 8 or 9am today: MDW: 101 ORD: 99 RFD: 99 Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I feel like it comes down to either 99 or 100 at ORD. I don't think it will be something else like 98 or 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Peak temps of 99 MDW and 97 ORD so far coming up to 2PM.Also 98 peak so far at RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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