weatherwiz Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 A rather vigorous trough (which spatial scale is too big to be considered shortwave but maybe too small to be considered longwave?) slowly propagates across southeastern Canada Thursday and Friday. A warm front will push through portions of New England Thursday night increasing low-level moisture/humidity along with resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a cold front will be pushing east across New York and Pennsylvania. Computer forecast models have trended a bit on the slower side with the passage of the cold front across southern New England Friday with the front now looking to move across the region during the early afternoon. Given the warm/moist low-level airmass ahead of the cold front, a slower FROPA would allow the potential for instability to build ahead of the front. With the potential for temperatures to climb into the 80's with dewpoints surging through the 60's, the potential will exist for upwards of 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE to develop ahead of the front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will inhibit stronger destabilization from materializing. Given the vigorous trough, dynamics are forecast to be quite impressive for this time of year with a 500mb speed max of 60-70 knots moving across the region from the west with a west-southwesterly llvl jet of 30-35 knots. Given the above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front by late Friday morning and move across the region through the afternoon. Given the strong shear aloft, thunderstorms should quickly become organized and grow upscale into a solid or broken line. Combination of 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE and rather steep llvl lapse rates would promote the potential for damaging wind gusts. Strong shear would also yield the potential for some hail and perhaps an isolated tornado. Greatest potential appears to be south and east of I-91 or south and east of a ORH-BDL-DXR line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 As has been the case with many days this spring, our convective potential will be battling very dry air at the mid and upper levels. Dry air begins to flow into the region behind Friday morning`s passing shortwave, which will likely inhibit updraft growth as the second shortwave begins to cross the region during the afternoon. Models are also varied in how fast we mix out on Friday, as NAM and GFS model soundings show a capping inversion that sticks around until almost 23Z Friday. Given how late in the day the cap erodes, the south coast and Cape Cod may be most at risk for any convective action, especially given persistent southwest surface flow. I am more on the bust train for this one, too many things can go wrong including the above. However there is a lot of upside, so if someone goes it could be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 I’m sure this will work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Looks like we'll see at least a broken line develop by early afternoon with eastern sections favored. May see some damaging wind gusts or hail with strongest stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Nothing screams thunder like thick strata locked in till noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 sun coming out strong in Springfield. But may be just a bit too far north and west here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing screams thunder like thick strata locked in till noon VGWDLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Getting a line to form but still quite a bit of MLCIN to erode before these can probably intensify much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 This season has been very lame so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 looks like a miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Would be nice to see some lightning within this line soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Looks like the core of strongest stuff will go to the north ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Would be nice to see some lightning within this line soon Lightning has greatly increased in the last few minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Super heavy rain and good winds! Btown always produces in the summer mos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 I can see updrafts of rising air feeding into it!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Storm is really picking up on lightning now. Over 300 per minute to 500 in the last five minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Yeah looking decent...good lightning and decent gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 I think there is an updraft going up right on top of me!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, radarman said: Super heavy rain and good winds! Btown always produces in the summer mos Another crusher for Burptown. Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Storms weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Headed my way and it’s holding its own but still sub severe. But beggars can’t be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Headed my way and it’s holding its own but still sub severe. But beggars can’t be choosers May slip to SW. Bullshit again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: May slip to SW. Bullshit again. Yup. Another clip job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Boring. Fits the theme of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Man remember in the 90s and 00s we used to get storms? Yeah, me too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Congrats on the New England severe all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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