Winter 2022-23

[IronTy]

probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.

Woah there buddy. Let's keep things PG in this forum.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, IronTy said:

 

 

Woah there buddy. Let's keep things PG in this forum.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

 

I def. wouldn't expect a repeat of Snowmageddon any time soon, but a similar type of ENSO event may be in the offing.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We do not have a strong la nina...not sure where that is coming from. MEI is high, which means this particular cold ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere, but the ONI is NOT strong...its borderline weak- moderate at the moment.

Yea, modoki la nina, as with el nino, is a different ballgame and applying stereotypical ENSO climo in that case is often a fool's errand due to disparate convective forcing schemes. Completely buy more of a modoki la nina this season, which likely means a more wintery December and milder mid winter season in the east.

Beginning next spring into the early summer, I expect the strongest positive anomalies to shift west and be joined by some other positive anomalies trending southward from the N PAC, as the la nina decays, which will segue into a rather healthy modoki el nino next year...probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.

If the models are correct, we are ENSO-neutral and warming come April, assuming that’s correct, a Nino would be a definite possibility by next summer/fall

[snowman19]

On 7/25/2022 at 8:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bleh.

Hope for a furnace over AK

Still very early but there are some signs that the AO/NAO may not cooperate. Again very early but 1) the Atlantic SSTA profile is not suggestive of -NAO, no semblance of a “tripole”, nor has there been this year, 2) possible low ACE Atlantic hurricane season? 3) high solar 4) Modoki Nina/+QBO, when accompanied by high solar you rarely see SSWs and it generally favors a colder stratosphere 5) volcanic stratospheric effects, unknown what effects the record amount of water vapor spewed into the stratosphere will have but we had a major tropical volcanic eruption this year (January) that reached the stratosphere none the less and the first year after an eruption normally results in +AO. This all is definitely not screaming arctic and Atlantic high latitude blocking to me but we’ll see….

[psuhoffman]

Unfortunately everything I see now is pretty grim regarding winter prospects.  I really appreciate our out of region contributors, they’ve been adding value to this discussion, but the worrying about exactly what the enso state ends up is more relevant to their snow prospects than ours. It’s evident we won’t have a Nino and if you take all other enso states, neutral, weak nina, mod Nina, strong Nina, our snow probabilities the last 40 years are nearly identical for our local region.  Once you get north of 40 it does still make a difference if we get a weak Nina or strong one. Only if you go back further (and I don’t think those stats are relevant anymore) do you see any real differentiation here.  
 

For us unless we get a Nino (and even then we really need a mod-strong, but not super, basin wide or modoki) our prospects aren’t great. But in all other states we can and have equal chances of a fluke decent to good year. But we need other things to line up. AO/NAO, PNA, EPO, SOI being the big 4 actual pattern measures we need to be lined up in our favor somehow in some combo. All the other stuff we discuss like PDO, QBO, solar, enso, soil moisture, hemispheric energies and planetary tilt are just things we can try to use as hints how those 4 will line up. 
 

Right now absolutely nothing is lined up the way we want. Just about every measurable is opposite of what we want. What more is there to say?  
 

The only good news is these things can all change dramatically from this range. Let’s just hope it does. Or sometimes a fluke that defies every measurable thing we know happens. And yea Iets root for that, but “maybe there will be a fluke” isn’t the basis for a forecast unless you’re JB. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately everything I see now is pretty grim regarding winter prospects.  I really appreciate our out of region contributors, they’ve been adding value to this discussion, but the worrying about exactly what the enso state ends up is more relevant to their snow prospects than ours. It’s evident we won’t have a Nino and if you take all other enso states, neutral, weak nina, mod Nina, strong Nina, our snow probabilities the last 40 years are nearly identical for our local region.  Once you get north of 40 it does still make a difference if we get a weak Nina or strong one. Only if you go back further (and I don’t think those stats are relevant anymore) do you see any real differentiation here.  
 

For us unless we get a Nino (and even then we really need a mod-strong, but not super, basin wide or modoki) our prospects aren’t great. But in all other states we can and have equal chances of a fluke decent to good year. But we need other things to line up. AO/NAO, PNA, EPO, SOI being the big 4 actual pattern measures we need to be lined up in our favor somehow in some combo. All the other stuff we discuss like PDO, QBO, solar, enso, soil moisture, hemispheric energies and planetary tilt are just things we can try to use as hints how those 4 will line up. 
 

Right now absolutely nothing is lined up the way we want. Just about every measurable is opposite of what we want. What more is there to say?  
 

The only good news is these things can all change dramatically from this range. Let’s just hope it does. Or sometimes a fluke that defies every measurable thing we know happens. And yea Iets root for that, but “maybe there will be a fluke” isn’t the basis for a forecast unless you’re JB. 

Well if you've practically given up on this winter (barring significsnt change), then I know I ain't too far off on writing this winter off, lol Nina enso seems to behave the most predictably, doesn't it?

[WinterWxLuvr]

As usual, it’s over. Always is.

Go back and read the past two winter threads about this time of year.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

As usual, it’s over. Always is.

Go back and read the past two winter threads about this time of year.

Let me ask ya something: What kind of winter followed the discussion we had a year ago?

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask ya something: What kind of winter followed the discussion we had a year ago?

Very mediocre. Basically a one month winter, but here we had good snows in both March and April. We have had much much worse. The year before was a good winter everywhere west of the Blue Ridge. 
 

Both winter threads were nothing but doom and gloom going in. Usually the same posters. I could name names but won’t. I would grade the past two winters as a B and a C-. The two threads were both F-

[IUsedToHateCold]

35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Very mediocre. Basically a one month winter, but here we had good snows in both March and April. We have had much much worse. The year before was a good winter everywhere west of the Blue Ridge. 
 

Both winter threads were nothing but doom and gloom going in. Usually the same posters. I could name names but won’t. I would grade the past two winters as a B and a C-. The two threads were both F-

I hold out some hope for this winter. There are just so many factors involved it’s hard to predict. Then there is always dumb luck. 
 

We will see how things look in November. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Very mediocre. Basically a one month winter, but here we had good snows in both March and April. We have had much much worse. The year before was a good winter everywhere west of the Blue Ridge. 
 

Both winter threads were nothing but doom and gloom going in. Usually the same posters. I could name names but won’t. I would grade the past two winters as a B and a C-. The two threads were both F-

When things get better posts will probably get better...or at least not as bad. Ya gotta understand the reason behind it...it has been a string of mediocrity since 2016. I know people are tired of hearing that but it is what it is. People are justified in frustration

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I hold out some hope for this winter. There are just so many factors involved it’s hard to predict. Then there is always dumb luck. 
 

We will see how things look in November. 

Is it that hard to predict, though? I mean ya coulda said that last year and yet the enso that we knew was gonna be there determined exactly what happened. Now unless enso changes...what's hard to predict?

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well if you've practically given up on this winter (barring significsnt change), then I know I ain't too far off on writing this winter off, lol Nina enso seems to behave the most predictably, doesn't it?

Ugh. It’s way too early. Ya it looks bad now but it’s not even August yet.  I said things can change. Ya right now my super early forecast would be below avg snow but it’s too early. Plus even if it is a bad year it will probably snow some. You take everything to extremes. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh. It’s way too early. Ya it looks bad now but it’s not even August yet.  I said things can change. Ya right now my super early forecast would be below avg snow but it’s too early. Plus even if it is a bad year it will probably snow some. You take everything to extremes. 

I don't think I am taking it to the extreme. Every week I keep hearing about how strong the Nina is remaining...why would that change much before winter? So I assume this winter will look like last winter at best (12-15"), or worse if we don't get a January like last winter. So when I say "given up"...I guess I mean giving up on anything more (that is, snowfalls that are 5-6"+)

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't think I am taking it to the extreme. Every week I keep hearing about how strong the Nina is remaining...why would that change much before winter? So I assume this winter will look like last winter at best (12-15"), or worse if we don't get a January like last winter. So when I say "given up"...I guess I mean giving up on anything more (that is, snowfalls that are 5-6"+)

Last year was well below normal here but I still enjoyed the snow I got.  It seems you’re chasing the kind of winter we only get 1-2 times a decade. That will leave you frustrated most of the time. 

[CAPE]

Last 2 winters were pretty good here. Slightly above avg snowfall last winter and median the winter before that. And that is based on the long term climo average. Not sure what it actually is now for my location. I doubt it has changed as much as the UHI hell of DC.

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it that hard to predict, though? I mean ya coulda said that last year and yet the enso that we knew was gonna be there determined exactly what happened. Now unless enso changes...what's hard to predict?

Yes it is hard to predict. Yes, especially two years ago, the naysayers have been wrong, to a lesser extent last year. Terrible winters are winters like 11-12, 15-16 ( yeah it had a big snow but was a three day winter) 19-20.
 

You have said a million times how bad the past few winters have been, but that’s only true for a small section of the forum. For some, the past 5 have ranged from awful (19-20) to pretty good (18-19, 20-21).

You want to lay everything at the feet of enso conditions but snowfall, perhaps not so much temperatures, is far more complex and in lots of cases comes down to blind luck. 
 

The past two winter threads have been pretty much nothing but pessimism and whining. Some of us like to think positively even in the face of uphill challenges. The only reason that I read this thread is to see who is packing to negativity this year.

But that’s not a good enough reason and I think I’ll show myself to the door. Y’all continue with the doom and gloom and I’ll go bide my time awaiting whatever happens.

[North Balti Zen]

He’s in the small section where it has been bad. 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't think I am taking it to the extreme. Every week I keep hearing about how strong the Nina is remaining...why would that change much before winter? So I assume this winter will look like last winter at best (12-15"), or worse if we don't get a January like last winter. So when I say "given up"...I guess I mean giving up on anything more (that is, snowfalls that are 5-6"+)

You focus too much on Nina as the root cause of your lack of snow. Last winter areas south and east did well in Jan, and places further west of you did pretty good later in winter. You were unlucky. In general, Ninas are not big snow winters for the MA, but neither are most Ninos. Outside of the inland areas at elevation, this is a terrible place to live if significant annual snowfall is high on your list of priorities.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

You focus too much on Nina as the root cause of your lack of snow. Last winter areas south and east did well in Jan, and places further west of you did pretty good later in winter. You were unlucky. In general, Ninas are not big snow winters for the MA, but neither are most Ninos. Outside of the inland areas at elevation, this is a terrible place to live if significant annual snowfall is high on your list of priorities.

He doesn't realize that the snow gods read this board and if you are a terrible poster they will make sure you don't get as much snow as the good posters get. He will learn one day

[SnowenOutThere]

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask ya something: What kind of winter followed the discussion we had a year ago?

A pretty good one tbh. 

[SnowenOutThere]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't think I am taking it to the extreme. Every week I keep hearing about how strong the Nina is remaining...why would that change much before winter? So I assume this winter will look like last winter at best (12-15"), or worse if we don't get a January like last winter. So when I say "given up"...I guess I mean giving up on anything more (that is, snowfalls that are 5-6"+)

As other posters have said the enso state is not everything, if anything you are complaining about our base climo which has never been good for snow. It’s like you expect every year to be a 2009-2010 and then get upset when it does look that way. This is all baring, of course, that it’s only July and our first snowfall is at least 4 months away. It’s ok to feel upset but this constant negativity is a bit much especially when winter is still so far away. 

[osfan24]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Last year was well below normal here but I still enjoyed the snow I got.  It seems you’re chasing the kind of winter we only get 1-2 times a decade. That will leave you frustrated most of the time. 

Our, or at least mine and some others problem, is that we had that hot stretch where we got so spoiled. 2009-2010 is the GOAT of all winters and it's not close. But 2010-2011 had a fun storm, 2013-2014 was the most wall-to-wall winter I can ever remember experiencing, 2014-2015 was like a poor man's version of that, and then 2015-2016 had the biggest snowstorm ever for some of us. We are paying the price for that hot stretch now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Still very early but there are some signs that the AO/NAO may not cooperate. Again very early but 1) the Atlantic SSTA profile is not suggestive of -NAO, no semblance of a “tripole”, nor has there been this year, 2) possible low ACE Atlantic hurricane season? 3) high solar 4) Modoki Nina/+QBO, when accompanied by high solar you rarely see SSWs and it generally favors a colder stratosphere 5) volcanic stratospheric effects, unknown what effects the record amount of water vapor spewed into the stratosphere will have but we had a major tropical volcanic eruption this year (January) that reached the stratosphere none the less and the first year after an eruption normally results in +AO. This all is definitely not screaming arctic and Atlantic high latitude blocking to me but we’ll see….

I agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't think I am taking it to the extreme. Every week I keep hearing about how strong the Nina is remaining...why would that change much before winter? So I assume this winter will look like last winter at best (12-15"), or worse if we don't get a January like last winter. So when I say "given up"...I guess I mean giving up on anything more (that is, snowfalls that are 5-6"+)

Its borderline weak/moderate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately everything I see now is pretty grim regarding winter prospects.  I really appreciate our out of region contributors, they’ve been adding value to this discussion, but the worrying about exactly what the enso state ends up is more relevant to their snow prospects than ours. It’s evident we won’t have a Nino and if you take all other enso states, neutral, weak nina, mod Nina, strong Nina, our snow probabilities the last 40 years are nearly identical for our local region.  Once you get north of 40 it does still make a difference if we get a weak Nina or strong one. Only if you go back further (and I don’t think those stats are relevant anymore) do you see any real differentiation here.  
 

For us unless we get a Nino (and even then we really need a mod-strong, but not super, basin wide or modoki) our prospects aren’t great. But in all other states we can and have equal chances of a fluke decent to good year. But we need other things to line up. AO/NAO, PNA, EPO, SOI being the big 4 actual pattern measures we need to be lined up in our favor somehow in some combo. All the other stuff we discuss like PDO, QBO, solar, enso, soil moisture, hemispheric energies and planetary tilt are just things we can try to use as hints how those 4 will line up. 
 

Right now absolutely nothing is lined up the way we want. Just about every measurable is opposite of what we want. What more is there to say?  
 

The only good news is these things can all change dramatically from this range. Let’s just hope it does. Or sometimes a fluke that defies every measurable thing we know happens. And yea Iets root for that, but “maybe there will be a fluke” isn’t the basis for a forecast unless you’re JB. 

I would agree that nothing is in favor of a big season down there, but I don't think you should necessarily be absolutely resigned to a horrendous season, either. I mean, if you feel you need to in order to mentally prepare yourself, I get it....but a pretty average season is well within the realm of plausibility....too early to tell.

But like I said, I would be surprised if you guys didn't kill it in 2023-2024...in all seriousness. Anything this season is gravy.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Last year was well below normal here but I still enjoyed the snow I got.  It seems you’re chasing the kind of winter we only get 1-2 times a decade. That will leave you frustrated most of the time. 

 

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As other posters have said the enso state is not everything, if anything you are complaining about our base climo which has never been good for snow. It’s like you expect every year to be a 2009-2010 and then get upset when it does look that way. This is all baring, of course, that it’s only July and our first snowfall is at least 4 months away. It’s ok to feel upset but this constant negativity is a bit much especially when winter is still so far away. 

Let me show ya what I wish it would look like. This is my lifetime as far as my working memory can reach: (excuse the sloppy writing, lol)

You see how 2-3 years of mediocrity was balanced out by a good year? Now, was every winter 2009-10? Of course not! That's not where my expectations are. What I DO look for, is NOT going 7 years without getting even ONE moderate snowfall over 6 inches. That's not what I grew up with, and this is the longest spurt of that I've ever had.

Now what also doesn't help is...FIVE of the last 7 winters (including this upcoming winter) have been Ninas. My yard doesn't get warning events from ninas, so maybe that's part of the reason. Now 2018-19 I just got bad fortune...what walloped DC gave me 4.8 inches with light rates. Nice to look at, but...yeah a better result that woulda helped.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would agree that nothing is in favor of a big season down there, but I don't think you should necessarily be absolutely resigned to a horrendous season, either. I mean, if you feel you need to in order to mentally prepare yourself, I get it....but a pretty average season is well within the realm of plausibility....too early to tell.

But like I said, I would be surprised if you guys didn't kill it in 2023-2024...in all seriousness. Anything this season is gravy.

Agree. See, Ninas can do median (and sometimes average) in terms of total snowfall. But they just do it in a paltry nickel and dime kind of way with 1-2 inches.

But yeah...already looking ahead to 2023-24. So...

Wake me up...when the nina ends 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

A pretty good one tbh. 

Kinda mediocre in my yard. 10-11 inches. Nice scenery snow, however...and I do value that a bit more than I used to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Let me show ya what I wish it would look like. This is my lifetime as far as my working memory can reach: (excuse the sloppy writing, lol)

You see how 2-3 years of mediocrity was balanced out by a good year? Now, was every winter 2009-10? Of course not! That's not where my expectations are. What I DO look for, is NOT going 7 years without getting even ONE moderate snowfall over 6 inches. That's not what I grew up with, and this is the longest spurt of that I've ever had.

Now what also doesn't help is...FIVE of the last 7 winters (including this upcoming winter) have been Ninas. My yard doesn't get warning events from ninas, so maybe that's part of the reason. Now 2018-19 I just got bad fortune...what walloped DC gave me 4.8 inches with light rates. Nice to look at, but...yeah a better result that woulda helped.

I've been in a rough patch locally for several years now, despite the region as a whole doing okay....I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018.