Winter 2022-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Tendency for suppression during Ninas. There have been two major snowstorms in NC in December in the past 12 years: 2010 and 2018, 2010 was a Nina year. 

 

 

Yea, kind of tough to hang your hat on, but...

[North Balti Zen]

40/70 - people in our area associate Ninas with misses south and also east. So people hear Nina and assume Carolina crusher and an eastern shore mauler where most of this forum gets missed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This -IOD event started independent of the La Niña a couple of months ago. It should max out sometime in October. I think it will definitely have an impact on the tropical forcing/MJO going into winter

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002).

View Full Size

 

Fig. 1.

(a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1.

Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1

From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO.

The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002).

View Full Size

 

Fig. 1.

(a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1.

Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1

From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO.

The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

Actually, you are right....the IOD-ENSO link doesn't apply for year long la nina events...only ones that have their initial onset during the spring.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

"One may note that the El Niño in mode 2 evolves from the peak phase of La Niña and the Indian Ocean experiences a decaying process of basinwide cooling".

 

Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that we usually have a modoki following a prolonged stretch of la nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It also makes sense that some of the la nina's that were kind of irregular from traditional la nina climo, such as 1995-1996 with the hyper active STJ and 2000-2001 with the huge ending, did not induce a concomitant IOD response, thus why the MJO likely strayed from traditional la nina favored phases.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also makes sense that some of the la nina's that were kind of irregular from traditional la nina climo, such as 1995-1996 with the hyper active STJ and 2000-2001 with the huge ending, did not induce a concomitant IOD response, thus why the MJO likely strayed from traditional la nina favored phases.

 

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Place 'yer bets!  What will be the most common comment made this upcoming winter (or ones you would expect to hear)?  Or, add your own "favorite" (least favorite!) comments/phrases!

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc) is a disaster!"

--"Fringed "

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) ticked a bit south (north, east, west)."

--"Watch list, or Reaper call?"

--"Rippin fatties at hour 48 (whenever)!!!"

--"Northeast MD PUMMELLED!"

--"How much for Short Pump?"

--"Crush job!"

--"Canadian looks awesome.  But it's the Canadian!"

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) took away 32" of my snow compared to yesterday!"

--"Guys, it's just snow.  Frozen freakin' water!"

--"How can a weak 1016mb low push away a huge 1036 high like that??  Meteorologically impossible!"

--"The shortwave isn't over land yet, so things could change when it's better sampled!"

--"La-la-la-lock it up!!!"

--"I'd take the GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) and call it a winter."

--"We take!"

--"I don't care for that low over Lake Michigan."

--"Looks good to me.  I'm in chips fall mode right now for my yard!"

--"It's the NAM at 84 hours!"

--"Dr. No says..."

--"Model X is now the new KING!!"

 

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually, you are right....the IOD-ENSO link doesn't apply for year long la nina events...only ones that have their initial onset during the spring.

 

This -IOD event means business, it’s already strong and gaining strength as we speak and it’s definitely going to have an effect on the global long wave pattern (MJO/tropical convective forcing) and already is. It is also helping to strengthen the La Niña, this EWB is extremely impressive: 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Place 'yer bets!  What will be the most common comment made this upcoming winter (or ones you would expect to hear)?  Or, add your own "favorite" (least favorite!) comments/phrases!

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc) is a disaster!"

--"Fringed "

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) ticked a bit south (north, east, west)."

--"Watch list, or Reaper call?"

--"Rippin fatties at hour 48 (whenever)!!!"

--"Northeast MD PUMMELLED!"

--"How much for Short Pump?"

--"Crush job!"

--"Canadian looks awesome.  But it's the Canadian!"

--"GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) took away 32" of my snow compared to yesterday!"

--"Guys, it's just snow.  Frozen freakin' water!"

--"How can a weak 1016mb low push away a huge 1036 high like that??  Meteorologically impossible!"

--"The shortwave isn't over land yet, so things could change when it's better sampled!"

--"La-la-la-lock it up!!!"

--"I'd take the GFS (NAM, Euro, etc.) and call it a winter."

--"We take!"

--"I don't care for that low over Lake Michigan."

--"Looks good to me.  I'm in chips fall mode right now for my yard!"

--"It's the NAM at 84 hours!"

--"Dr. No says..."

--"Model X is now the new KING!!"

 

 

All I know is I ain't playin' this game this year, lol Model run to Model run just makes zero sense after what we saw last season and the season begitr  Now some like the chase, and I get that. But if you sittin' in a nina in a spot not named CAPE's yard (or PSU's in March), why would you waste time model watching for a favorable outcome? Ain't happenin'! Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This -IOD event means business, it’s already strong and gaining strength as we speak and it’s definitely going to have an effect on the global long wave pattern (MJO/tropical convective forcing) and already is. It is also helping to strengthen the La Niña, this EWB is extremely impressive: 

 

 

Man I sure as heck hope this doesn't keep reloading for a quadruple dip...now that would really suck! I don't know enough about enso...but could this be an unprecedented event of it going and going for another year? Just seems endless, lol But someone did say that all things eventually break down...so I hope that finally happens after this winter.

[IUsedToHateCold]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I sure as heck hope this doesn't keep reloading for a quadruple dip...now that would really suck! I don't know enough about enso...but could this be an unprecedented event of it going and going for another year? Just seems endless, lol But someone did say that all things eventually break down...so I hope that finally happens after this winter.

To make a totally unscientific guess, the predominant Nina state over the past 22 years (11 out of 22 years) is a global feedback mechanism to cool the globe in response to climate change. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is a 4th Nina after this one, or that the next 7 out of 10 winters are Nina winters. 

If right, it will make winter forecasts easier in one way. 

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I sure as heck hope this doesn't keep reloading for a quadruple dip...now that would really suck! I don't know enough about enso...but could this be an unprecedented event of it going and going for another year? Just seems endless, lol But someone did say that all things eventually break down...so I hope that finally happens after this winter.

This multi-year Niña event is most likely over and done come early spring. The models have it falling apart and region 3.4 warming to neutral (La Nada) come March/April 

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002).

View Full Size

 

Fig. 1.

(a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1.

Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1

From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO.

The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

http://www.oceansatlas.org/subtopic/en/c/656/

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

-IOD actually promotes and reinforces La Niña development and causes Niña-like impacts on the pattern, they feedback on each other. The vast majority of -IOD’s occur during Nina’s and very rarely occur during Ninos. If there wasn’t a -IOD event back in 2016, that La Niña would have never even developed. See here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z 

[snowman19]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/23/2022 at 6:02 AM, snowman19 said:

-IOD actually promotes and reinforces La Niña development and causes Niña-like impacts on the pattern, they feedback on each other. The vast majority of -IOD’s occur during Nina’s and very rarely occur during Ninos. If there wasn’t a -IOD event back in 2016, that La Niña would have never even developed. See here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z 

La nina will be weak for winter, regardless of whether or not a brief moderate peak is achieved this fall.

Yea, neg IOD is linked to la nina, but it's also linked to modoki el nino, which we are likely to see next year.

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

La nina will be weak for winter, regardless of whether or not a brief moderate peak is achieved this fall.

Yea, neg IOD is linked to la nina, but it's also linked to modoki el nino, which we are likely to see next year.

I know you disagree but there’s talk of this event possibly going strong this winter, if region 3.4 really goes to -2C that would be record breaking: 

 

[snowman19]

On 7/22/2022 at 2:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

Here’s some more on the IOD, Paul Roundy thinks this -IOD event is strong enough to cause Bjerknes feedback and keep it going, a very unusual situation: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you disagree but there’s talk of this event possibly going strong this winter, if region 3.4 really goes to -2C that would be record breaking: 

 

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

Not much else to talk about wrt the character of the upcoming winter at this juncture, outside of the nebulous QBO I guess. So yeah, they have to make it sound super interesting. Discussing what is probably the most logical progression (towards neutral) sounds boring.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Going to be our 4th straight Winter of Stratospheric cooling (+QBO/LaNina)

[StormchaserChuck!]

Then my favorite analog match to this time

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Then my favorite analog match to this time

 

Bleh.

Hope for a furnace over AK

[StormchaserChuck!]

It's a weird anomaly. 

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

This fall should be interesting. Paul Roundy touched on it last week but he said the -IOD and +QBO are going to have effects on the MJO waves and propagation this winter. Though strong MJO events can happen in +QBO, they are much less likely than -QBO he had said

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Going to be our 4th straight Winter of Stratospheric cooling (+QBO/LaNina)

La Niña/+QBO as a sweeping generally favors a cooler stratosphere than a -QBO/Niña. If you look at SSWE’s (just for Nina’s) in order of most likely to occur to least likely to occur it would be this order: most likely: Niña/-QBO/low solar, Niña/-QBO/high solar, Niña/+QBO/low solar and least likely for a SSW: Niña/+QBO/high solar

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

La Niña/+QBO as a sweeping generally favors a cooler stratosphere than a -QBO/Niña. If you look at SSWE’s (just for Nina’s) in order of most likely to occur to least likely to occur it would be this order: most likely: Niña/-QBO/low solar, Niña/-QBO/high solar, Niña/+QBO/low solar and least likely for a SSW: Niña/+QBO/high solar

Right, but as we saw last season, these are just probabilities and there are not guarantees. 

[snowman19]

On 7/18/2022 at 7:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its been apparent for a while this tropical season was over forecast by the consensus...Cosgrove has been all over that dating back to last spring.

This may explain things too: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This may explain things too: 

 

We do not have a strong la nina...not sure where that is coming from. MEI is high, which means this particular cold ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere, but the ONI is NOT strong...its borderline weak- moderate at the moment.

Yea, modoki la nina, as with el nino, is a different ballgame and applying stereotypical ENSO climo in that case is often a fool's errand due to disparate convective forcing schemes. Completely buy more of a modoki la nina this season, which likely means a more wintery December and milder mid winter season in the east.

Beginning next spring into the early summer, I expect the strongest positive anomalies to shift west and be joined by some other positive anomalies trending southward from the N PAC, as the la nina decays, which will segue into a rather healthy modoki el nino next year...probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.