Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, and probably an at least somewhat tamer end of the season. Modified 2000-2001 works for me..we are due for more of an interior winter throughout the NE

There is mounting evidence for a cold December like Dec, 2000 and possibly a weaker SPV, at least to start December. I think we need to watch what the sun does, it’s been very active so far this year and what effects the strong -IOD has on MJO waves/tropical convective forcing. A La Niña (possible Modoki?), -PDO and +QBO are the givens at this point. Personally, I can care less what arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover does, but that’s just my opinion….

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There is mounting evidence for a cold December like Dec, 2000 and possibly a weaker SPV, at least to start December. I think we need to watch what the sun does, it’s been very active so far this year and what effects the strong -IOD has on MJO waves/tropical convective forcing. A La Niña (possible Modoki?), -PDO and +QBO are the givens at this point. Personally, I can care less what arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover does, but that’s just my opinion….

Yea, I like a nice December, and then maybe a tougher stretch, hopefully after the holidays. 

The sea ice and SAI are factors.....the trouble is when people weigh them on an absolute scale...that is usually a fools errand within the context of seasonal forecasting.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There is mounting evidence for a cold December like Dec, 2000 and possibly a weaker SPV, at least to start December. I think we need to watch what the sun does, it’s been very active so far this year and what effects the strong -IOD has on MJO waves/tropical convective forcing. A La Niña (possible Modoki?), -PDO and +QBO are the givens at this point. Personally, I can care less what arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover does, but that’s just my opinion….

December is here, and the force is with him.  

[psuhoffman]

On 7/18/2022 at 4:12 PM, snowman19 said:

At this very early juncture, 2000-2001 is probably the best match, minus the +QBO we will have this coming winter, but other than that, it’s a pretty decent analog, as long as cold expectations are adjusted for today’s warmer climate…..

It’s amazing the cutoff in many decent Nina years near Philly. Same in 2018. My area northeast can do ok. But south of there doesn’t cash in even in “better” Nina’s.  On another note not sure a repeat of 2001 works out even here. The coop near here recorded ~35” but most of it came in several very marginal temp storms. Two where the snow mostly fell with temps at 32-34 degrees. A repeat of that winter adjusted a couple degrees warmer would be a dreg winter here. 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s amazing the cutoff in many decent Nina years near Philly. Same in 2018. My area northeast can do ok. But south of there doesn’t cash in even in “better” Nina’s.  On another note not sure a repeat of 2001 works out even here. The coop near here recorded ~35” but most of it came in several very marginal temp storms. Two where the snow mostly fell with temps at 32-34 degrees. A repeat of that winter adjusted a couple degrees warmer would be a dreg winter here. 

For the most part, Nina’s are always better for New England…minus 95-96 and 10-11. The 2000-2001 winter had a cold/snowy December, January and February torched then winter made a comeback in March. It was remembered as a “decent” winter because of the December and March cold and the early March blizzard for parts of New England. That storm missed NYC - south, one of the worst busts of all time for that area….after days of blizzard hype, they even shutdown NYC in preparation for next to nothing

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s amazing the cutoff in many decent Nina years near Philly. Same in 2018. My area northeast can do ok. But south of there doesn’t cash in even in “better” Nina’s.  On another note not sure a repeat of 2001 works out even here. The coop near here recorded ~35” but most of it came in several very marginal temp storms. Two where the snow mostly fell with temps at 32-34 degrees. A repeat of that winter adjusted a couple degrees warmer would be a dreg winter here. 

Possibly, but its not that easy to discern, as most of the global warming has manifested itself via warmer nighttime lows rather than daytime highs. Most, not all....

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

For the most part, Nina’s are always better for New England…minus 95-96 and 10-11. The 2000-2001 winter had a cold/snowy December, January and February torched then winter made a comeback in March. It was remembered as a “decent” winter because of the December and March cold and the early March blizzard for parts of New England. That storm missed NYC - south, one of the worst busts of all time for that area….after days of blizzard hype, they even shutdown NYC in preparation for next to nothing

1995-1996 certainly had greater positive snowfall anomalies in the mid atl, but I'm not sure 2010-2011 did....maybe in the northern mid atl...I  know Philly did great, but a good portion of SNE approached 100".

[WxUSAF]

2010-11 for MBY (all that matters) was a bit above median and a bit below average snowfall. Which has been quite typical for MOST (but not all for sure) Ninas since I moved back to MD.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Possibly, but its not that easy to discern, as most of the global warming has manifested itself via warmer nighttime lows rather than daytime highs. Most, not all....

1995-1996 certainly had greater positive snowfall anomalies in the mid atl, but I'm not sure 2010-2011 did....maybe in the northern mid atl...I  know Philly did great, but a good portion of SNE approached 100".

I think part of what made 10-11 and 95-96 so good was they came off of an El Niño the previous winter so there was probably still some Nino lag going on. They both had a very active STJ those winters. 95-96 was also a strong +PDO winter, which is very unusual for a La Niña 

[mattie g]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 certainly had greater positive snowfall anomalies in the mid atl, but I'm not sure 2010-2011 did....maybe in the northern mid atl...I  know Philly did great, but a good portion of SNE approached 100".

2010-2011:

IAD: 12.6"
DCA: 10.1"
BWI: 14.4"

Fell just short of 100".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think part of what made 10-11 and 95-96 so good was they came off of an El Niño the previous winter so there was probably still some Nino lag going on. They both had a very active STJ those winters. 95-96 was also a strong +PDO winter, which is very unusual for a La Niña 

I buy that for 1995-1996, but 2010-2011 was actually pretty N stream dominant.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

2010-11 for MBY (all that matters) was a bit above median and a bit below average snowfall. Which has been quit typical for MOST (but not all for sure) Ninas since I moved back to MD.

Generally the same for my yard. 2010-11 was around average iirc, and 2017-18 and last winter were slightly above average. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Can somebody tag me when we finally realize it’s over? Thanks in advance

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can somebody tag me when we finally realize it’s over? Thanks in advance

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

Are you buying the models showing a moderate Niña peak in December? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Are you buying the models showing a moderate Niña peak in December? 

It could....I mean, its moderate now. Depends on how quickly it can decay later this fall and into early winter. I think the strongly negative IOD belies the ultimate intensity of the la nina this cold season....be careful about interpreting the rather robust -IOD as an ensuing major la nina event. The IOD is also influenced by the timing of ENSO events, not just the strength....thus earlier onset la nina is correlated to more robust -IOD events. This of course is a well-established, multi year cold ENSO. Its later onset ENSO events that are less likely to manifest in changes to the IOD.

I am finding some really interesting stuff concerning the IOD...I suspected that -IOD was correlated to el nino modoki due to the co occurrence of increased convection over the W PAC, and early returns are that I am right.

Just another feather in the cap of an el nino modoki once this cold ENSO decays during the coming winter.

Do you have a good link for IOD data?

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No.

I am finding some really interesting stuff concerning the IOD...I suspected that -IOD was correlated to el nino modoki due to the co occurrence of increased convection over the W PAC, and early returns are that I am right.

Just another feather in the cap of an el nino modoki once this cold ENSO decays during the coming winter.

Do you have a good link for IOD data?

The IOD links I have are from google searches over the years. HM and Isotherm may be able to guide you better on that, they are well versed in it. As far as the La Niña, every model has it falling apart completely come March/April and region 3.4 finally going neutral then. Still way out in fantasy land but I think this 3 year event is done for good come spring, 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will be a tricky season because we are backing out of the ENSO state, as opposed to the atmosphere riding the coat tails of a burgeoning event.....thus I do not feel as though the forcing will be commensurate with a lot of the global indicators that normally provide insight into the strength of ENSO.....kind of like seeing this big bulge of warmth in the GOA, but knowing that the pattern has already changed and the residual SST pattern is just a reflection of what was, not what will be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am firmly in the cold-neutral to weak la nina camp for winter, but I would not rule out enough residual coolness lingering into early winter for a moderate "peak", though I don't think it would mean anything.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the strongly negative IOD and MEI are a reflection of this past year, not necessarily of what will be several months down the line.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the strongly negative IOD and MEI are a reflection of this past year, not necessarily of what will be several months down the line.

This -IOD event started independent of the La Niña a couple of months ago. It should max out sometime in October. I think it will definitely have an impact on the tropical forcing/MJO going into winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This -IOD event started independent of the La Niña a couple of months ago. It should max out sometime in October. I think it will definitely have an impact on the tropical forcing/MJO going into winter

Independent of la nina? We had already been two plus years deep into la nina....

The early portion of winter, which would act to pin forcing over the west pacific...that buttresses the idea of a fast start.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Independent of la nina? We had already been two plus years deep into la nina....

The early portion of winter, which would act to pin forcing over the west pacific...that buttresses the idea of a fast start.

I should say the IOD is on it’s own cycle

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, la nina will definitely have an impact...not saying it won't. I actually don't mind 1975-1976 as a potential analog.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I should say the IOD is on it’s own cycle

Sometimes it is...the exact relationship between the two is a bit of a wild card.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

Lol, in this sub forum it’s always a disaster. All I’m doing is making fun of those posters. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am firmly in the cold-neutral to weak la nina camp for winter, but I would not rule out enough residual coolness lingering into early winter for a moderate "peak", though I don't think it would mean anything.

I’d roll with a cold neutral and take my chances here. They are potentially good.

[mattie g]

75-76...

IAD: 9.1"
BWI: 11.5"
DCA: 2.2"

[IUsedToHateCold]

I’m not thrilled by the idea of a front loaded winter, especially if the Niña holds. I think we would see a couple of small events in December with the possibility of a massive storm for NC. Better chances for a bigger event would be in late Feb or March. 
 

We could roll lucky though. We can always roll lucky. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I’m not thrilled by the idea of a front loaded winter, especially if the Niña holds. I think we would see a couple of small events in December with the possibility of a massive storm for NC. Better chances for a bigger event would be in late Feb or March. 
 

We could roll lucky though. We can always roll lucky. 

How do you figure?

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you figure?

Tendency for suppression during Ninas. There have been two major snowstorms in NC in December in the past 12 years: 2010 and 2018, 2010 was a Nina year.