Winter 2022-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now this is just a wild probably uneducated question: Is there a such thing as a permanent enso state? Like is it possible for things to get "stuck"? Lol

For a few years, such as we are currently seeing...but interminably? No, because the nature of the processes, such as the Walker cycle, etc, that comprise ENSO are ultimately self-destructive.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like its essentially the west PAC cousin of ENSO....largely modulated by Walker Cycle, as well?

May be interesting to see if IOD phase is correlated to whether a given ENSO event is modoki or canonical....I will look into that this season.

-IOD’s serve to enhance La Niña development. El Niño’s very rarely happen along with a -IOD, the overwhelming majority of the time you see a +IOD with El Niño. You can see a positive or negative IOD phase with a Niña, but the -IOD really helps to augment the Niña state. When the IOD is in a very strong positive or negative phase, as it is now, its effects are even stronger. It is currently having a very significant impact on the MJO waves and their propagation, as I posted earlier, I would expect this to certainly continue into winter…..

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO is always a good starting point.

I agree, early portion looks better and mid winter worse relative to last season.

One point, though....2000-2001 wasn't front loaded, at least up here....it was pretty relentless activity, with a relative burst early and late. March was actually the most furious stretch.

AGW is also playing a big role in the present day….when analogs from 20+ years ago are used, it has to be done carefully with respect to the new warmer background state, the type of cold back then should not be expected this time around even if everything else matches up analog wise, on a smaller temp scale, don’t expect the same cold result you had 20+ years ago 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

AGW is also playing a big role in the present day….when analogs from 20+ years ago are used, it has to be done carefully with respect to the new warmer background state, the type of cold back then should not be expected this time around even if everything else matches up analog wise, on a smaller temp scale, don’t expect the same cold result you had 20+ years ago 

I feel like that is implicit today....everyone understands that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

AGW is also playing a big role in the present day….when analogs from 20+ years ago are used, it has to be done carefully with respect to the new warmer background state, the type of cold back then should not be expected this time around even if everything else matches up analog wise, on a smaller temp scale, don’t expect the same cold result you had 20+ years ago 

Yea, just cements the notion that we aren't having an el nino this winter. Will the Pac be as hostile as it was last season?

No.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like that is implicit today....everyone understands that.

I need to visit your reality. In mine a significant % of people have decided reality is subjective and science is a conspiracy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need to visit your reality. In mine a significant % of people have decided reality is subjective and science is a conspiracy. 

Well, that's obvious to me....if someone doesn't understand that, then its their problem.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I need to visit your reality. In mine a significant % of people have decided reality is subjective and science is a conspiracy. 

Thanks to JB, a certain percentage of the population, particularly on the east coast, live in a delusional alternative reality and think AGW is a hoax and we are really going into an ice age. Any talk of a warming climate is just a big lie and a conspiracy. Black is white, white is black, down is up and up is down…..

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Thanks to JB, a certain percentage of the population, particularly on the east coast, live in a delusional alternative reality and think AGW is a hoax and we are really going into an ice age. Any talk of a warming climate is just a big lie and a conspiracy. Black is white, white is black, down is up and up is down…..

It isn't just JB, the east coast, and climate change. OT though.

[IronTy]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thanks to JB, a certain percentage of the population, particularly on the east coast, live in a delusional alternative reality and think AGW is a hoax and we are really going into an ice age. Any talk of a warming climate is just a big lie and a conspiracy. Black is white, white is black, down is up and up is down…..

Hell even JB has begun to capitulate to the fact that GW is real.   He's only reached phase 2 of denial though - "GW is real but not due to humans, it's due to water vapor from super ninos".

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Hell even JB has begun to capitulate to the fact that GW is real.   He's only reached phase 2 of denial though - "GW is real but not due to humans, it's due to water vapor from super ninos".

I think it viable to debate what percentage of GW is anthropogenic, but there is no question that humans are partially to blame.

[IronTy]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it viable to debate what percentage of GW is anthropogenic, but there is no question that humans are partially to blame.

Yes, people grounded in science and physics know this, ideologists on the other hand....but hey, it's a start.  

[snowman19]

On 7/14/2022 at 8:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just cements the notion that we aren't having an el nino this winter. Will the Pac be as hostile as it was last season?

No.

@brooklynwx99Not sure if this would have winter implications on the Atlantic side (SSTs) but It’s starting to look like the calls for a very hyperactive hurricane season may not pan out: 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Here's a good one, this is monitor drought going through June/July.. I like the pacific jet stream going up into Alaska (since 2013)

[StormchaserChuck!]

More significant widespread drought though.. this is interesting 

[StormchaserChuck!]

La Nina/+QBO could really be horrible if we do go La Nina (it's weakening, but hitting that point in the year where if it doesn't weaken too much there's no going back) About 100% chance of +QBO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index(opposite 15-16 same phase lol)

more on drought roll forward

[StormchaserChuck!]

More.. going back to 1948, June drought index:

24hr 500mb map 

[IronTy]

I've got a good feeling for this winter, just like I had for last winter.  

[snowman19]

On 7/14/2022 at 8:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just cements the notion that we aren't having an el nino this winter. Will the Pac be as hostile as it was last season?

No.

You had talked about this year’s La Niña being centered further west…..looks like this is becoming a Modoki event: 

 

[IronTy]

2009-2010 here we come! Take it to the bank.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[WEATHER53]

Rounding into form and looking better than last winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/16/2022 at 8:27 AM, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99Not sure if this would have winter implications on the Atlantic side (SSTs) but It’s starting to look like the calls for a very hyperactive hurricane season may not pan out: 

 

Yea, its been apparent for a while this tropical season was over forecast by the consensus...Cosgrove has been all over that dating back to last spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/17/2022 at 5:45 AM, snowman19 said:

You had talked about this year’s La Niña being centered further west…..looks like this is becoming a Modoki event: 

 

Well, there is a modoki spectrum.....while its probably going to be more west-based (modoki) than last season's, that isn't saying very much because last year was heavily biased to the east. Furthermore, even it if is decidedly towards the modoki end of the spectrum, the impending la nina will not be as prominent as the one last season, so it isn't necessarily "game over" for the northeast this winter.

There is more variability with respect to meager ENSO events. For instance, the 2005-2006 la nina was heavily east based, but it was very weak...thus the winter was still mild. The el nino of 1976-1977, which was accompanied by that earth-shattering cold winter season, was actually a heavily eastward leaning el nino....but again, it was very meager.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is a bit of a refresher taken from last season's outlook that illustrates what I have alluded to above:

There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences:

Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's 

Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based

DJF 500mb for East-based years:

 

 

DJF Temps

 

Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the

 east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo.

JFM 500mb east-based years

 

 

 

JFM Temps
 

 

 

 

 

 

Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years:

DJF 500mb
 

 

 

 

DJF Temps
 

 

 

December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. 

One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak

 ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are 

weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006.

Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001.

This is further proof that there does indeed exist a structural mechanism beyond strength that dictates the overall character of la nina events and one of the focal points of this writing is to elucidate that point.

There are some "hybrid" events that share both east-based and modoki traits. You can have a Nina that is a mix of east-based versus central-based, or "basin-wide", such as both this season and last.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will update these to incorporate last season's la nina into the east-based composite, as I have yet to do so. The updated east-based la nina composite will be included in the 2022-2023 outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is a bit of a refresher taken from last season's outlook that illustrates what I have alluded to above:

There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences:

Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's 

Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based

DJF 500mb for East-based years:

 

 

DJF Temps

 

Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the

 east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo.

JFM 500mb east-based years

 

 

 

JFM Temps
 

 

 

 

 

 

Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years:

DJF 500mb
 

 

 

 

DJF Temps
 

 

 

December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. 

One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak

 ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are 

weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006.

Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001.

This is further proof that there does indeed exist a structural mechanism beyond strength that dictates the overall character of la nina events and one of the focal points of this writing is to elucidate that point.

There are some "hybrid" events that share both east-based and modoki traits. You can have a Nina that is a mix of east-based versus central-based, or "basin-wide", such as both this season and last.

Note that last season, being a very heavily biased towards the east, featured a very mild December...and a colder mid season. This quoted material explains that relationship well. Of course, it didn't have the big ending that thought was possible due to (in my opinion) that very quick uptick in solar activity last season.

But this is why I expect a better December this year and a more meager mid winter period relative to last winter.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is a modoki spectrum.....while its probably going to be more west-based (modoki) than last season's, that isn't saying very much because last year was heavily biased to the east. Furthermore, even it if is decidedly towards the modoki end of the spectrum, the impending la nina will not be as prominent as the one last season, so it isn't necessarily "game over" for the northeast this winter.

There is more variability with respect to meager ENSO events. For instance, the 2005-2006 la nina was heavily east based, but it was very weak...thus the winter was still mild. The el nino of 1976-1977, which was accompanied by that earth-shattering cold winter season, was actually a heavily eastward leaning el nino....but again, it was very meager.

Yea, this one is definitely biased further west than last year like you had speculated, Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s…. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, this one is definitely biased further west than last year like you had speculated, Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s…. 

 

2000-2001 was a modoki, too....one of the better winters where I live right now, so like I said....more variability when its weaker.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2000-2001 was a modoki, too....one of the better winters where I live right now, so like I said....more variability when its weaker.

At this very early juncture, 2000-2001 is probably the best match, minus the +QBO we will have this coming winter, but other than that, it’s a pretty decent analog, as long as cold expectations are adjusted for today’s warmer climate…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

At this very early juncture, 2000-2001 is probably the best match, minus the +QBO we will have this coming winter, but other than that, it’s a pretty decent analog, as long as cold expectations are adjusted for today’s warmer climate…..

Yes, and probably an at least somewhat tamer end of the season. Modified 2000-2001 works for me..we are due for more of an interior winter throughout the NE