Winter 2022-23

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/10/2022 at 10:28 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure about the EPS....Scott can post when he sees this, but I do have OP run from last night and it basically splits the PV at 50mb by D10

 

 

This looks....promising?

[wxdude64]

NWS Blacksburg put a winter weather advisory for my area for a small amount of snow and ice late tonight and tomorrow morning..... we shall see.

[yoda]

LWX went WWAs for basically i81 corridor westward... including E WV and W MD

[WxUSAF]

This seems…not bad? Most consistent feature is the NPac ridge, but most of the guidance has it oriented more over AK proper than the Aleutians and with it closer to the west coast. Hence the SE ridge is fairly muted in these looks and is more of a WAR. +AO though as well which isn’t ideal. 

 

[nj2va]

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

Doug is known on here as snowman19

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

Ah good. Get ready for a decent winter then.

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This seems…not bad? Most consistent feature is the NPac ridge, but most of the guidance has it oriented more over AK proper than the Aleutians and with it closer to the west coast. Hence the SE ridge is fairly muted in these looks and is more of a WAR. +AO though as well which isn’t ideal. 

 

Seasonal Models are heavily weighted ENSO. PDO State also weighted pretty high. NATL SST'S somewhat along with IO.  As far as the AO predictive State , maybe it's derived from past similar Driver parameter setups. I. e., The current Global indices compared with similar past years and their Winter AO State outcome. Rising QBO probably factored in.

            

     

[BristowWx]

5 hours ago, nj2va said:

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

Winter of 76-77 and 11-12 is what he threw out.  Yowza

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ah good. Get ready for a decent winter then.

You're gonna do better than that this winter.

You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

[Jebman]

On 10/29/2022 at 8:02 AM, snowman19 said:

My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case

Even so, I hope and pray that the East gets ALL the Vodka Cold this winter! And all the deep snow!

[Chris78]

12 hours ago, nj2va said:

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

He's basically saying bad pattern and bad luck all winter.

4 - 10 all the way out past Hagerstown. 

If I end up with 4" that would be one of the worst winters I've ever had up this way in over 20 years 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

He's basically saying bad pattern and bad luck all winter.

4 - 10 all the way out past Hagerstown. 

If I end up with 4" that would be one of the worst winters I've ever had up this way in over 20 years 

How could he say bad luck, that’s asinine. 

[Chris78]

Just now, ravensrule said:

How could he say bad luck, that’s asinine. 

He didn't say bad luck lol. 

I'm saying to end up with those low of totals you have to have both a bad pattern and bad luck.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Chris78 said:

He didn't say bad luck lol. 

I'm saying to end up with those low of totals you have to have both a bad pattern and bad luck.

There is no way a met should post an outlook that has such low snowfall totals. Not only are you banking on the pattern being a dumpster fire the whole winter but also there being no lucky storms that thread the needle. This year it also looks like we will have a good pattern for December and with totals that low you only need one 6+ storm and your forecast is out.

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

He's basically saying bad pattern and bad luck all winter.

4 - 10 all the way out past Hagerstown. 

If I end up with 4" that would be one of the worst winters I've ever had up this way in over 20 years 

Yeah, and he also said he was leaning towards the low end of that 2-6" range for DC, lol.  I'm not quite sure I'm buying that but we'll soon see!

[mattie g]

16 hours ago, nj2va said:

Doug K on Channel 4 predicting 2-6” for DC this winter. 

Oh yeah? F*ck Doug K.

[Terpeast]

Having come from the Bob Ryan / Doug Hill days (yes I’m showing my age)… I’m not familiar with the new generation of TV mets here, except I’ve seen Topper Shutt maybe a few times.

Who are the best ones?

Who busts the most? (Hopefully this Doug K fellow)

[WxUSAF]

CWG winter outlook posted with major contributions from @Deck Pic. Looks reasonable to me.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter outlook posted with major contributions from @Deck Pic. Looks reasonable to me.

 

Yeah it does. (Although add 10 inches to @CAPE's yard for the usual nina Miller B, lol)

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm more optimistic about this winter than I was back in September. It looks like we can probably make some hay through the end of December. Probably one of those "near normal snowfall / slightly above normal temp" winters.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Love the '95 Dec analog, not Jan '96 though. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm more optimistic about this winter than I was back in September. It looks like we can probably make some hay through the end of December. Probably one of those "near normal snowfall / slightly above normal temp" winters.

Where I live, I'm expecting 35" of snow(forecast), average is 32". 

[Daniel Boone]

27 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Love the '95 Dec analog, not Jan '96 though. 

Would be nice for January to go against the mild grain as well. Maybe a Jan. 2011 ?.? 

[CAPE]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it does. (Although add 10 inches to @CAPE's yard for the usual nina Miller B, lol)

These snowfall forecasts are always the generic NW to SE gradient. Hard to predict what specific area might get 'bonus' snow. That said, it is pretty typical to see a bit of a dead zone in the I-95 corridor of the MA in a Nina, and ofc DC itself generally struggles to get snow more than immediate surrounding areas.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

These snowfall forecasts are always the generic NW to SE gradient. Hard to predict what specific area might get 'bonus' snow. That said, it is pretty typical to see a bit of a dead zone in the I-95 corridor of the MA in a Nina, and ofc DC itself generally struggles to get snow more than immediate surrounding areas.

In a feast or famine climo location, any guesses near climo are statistically weak lol. Go small to rack up wins or go big to rack up fame.... eventually 

I still look at long range stuff but only at a 10k' view nowadays. From what I've seen since mid Oct, my intuition is strongly telling me winter will be winter this year in the east. Especially if the GoA ridge is predominant and is centered further east than usual. We can be cold and snow without blocking in that regime. I have no strong thoughts at all other than my gut

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

In a feast or famine climo location, any guesses near climo are statistically weak lol. Go small to rack up wins or go big to rack up fame.... eventually 

I still look at long range stuff but only at a 10k' view nowadays. From what I've seen since mid Oct, my intuition is strongly telling me winter will be winter this year in the east. Especially if the GoA ridge is predominant and is centered further east than usual. We can be cold and snow without blocking in that regime. I have no strong thoughts at all other than my gut

I brought that up couple months ago on twitter regarding what I thought would be a pretty good bet the nina enhanced PAC Ridge would be further east than typical due to warmer SST'S further East. I got ridiculed by a couple guy's. One weenie and the other, the self deemed best Met ever. Anyone can guess who that is. Say's things backwards sometimes, lol. 

[wkd]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

In a feast or famine climo location, any guesses near climo are statistically weak lol. Go small to rack up wins or go big to rack up fame.... eventually 

I still look at long range stuff but only at a 10k' view nowadays. From what I've seen since mid Oct, my intuition is strongly telling me winter will be winter this year in the east. Especially if the GoA ridge is predominant and is centered further east than usual. We can be cold and snow without blocking in that regime. I have no strong thoughts at all other than my gut

I've always followed your subforum and looked forward to Chill's and PSU's  posts.   My objection is why so many knowledgeable posters take climatology as a major consideration in their thinkig of  future seasonal    

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, wkd said:

I've always followed your subforum and looked forward to Chill's and PSU's  posts.   My objection is why so many knowledgeable posters take climatology as a major consideration in their thinkig of  future seasonal    

Think of it like a counter trade in the stock mkt. Against the grain for a reason. Low probability to go against climo guardrails. The most powerful wx supercomputers in the world still struggle bad beyond day 5 so its hard to trust any numerical guidance beyond that. Climo is the best predictive tool in the long range hands down imho

[psuhoffman]

Now that we are close enough to look at pattern progression and infuse some observations about the state of the pattern into the seasonal expectations I am slightly more optimistic.  But most of the long range indicators are still pretty bad.  And the last couple times I let early season positive pattern signs make me get optimistic despite a Nina... we mostly struck out early, then the pattern reverted to more typical nina crap for the core of winter.  So I am staying reserved this time.  But one of these years we will finally get another good snowfall year without the long range classic climate drivers indicating it...and when it happens I am going to miss it and be horribly wrong.  I really hope its this year.  If so maybe with a better enso coming next year we could actually go on a bit of a multi year run...we are due for that.