raindancewx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: It’s OK I’m sure if there were cities on the East Coast at 5000 feet altitude be a lot different story but oh well it is what it is I’m enjoying the warm weather out golfing and you enjoy your Dustings What is the point of your posts? I do enjoy weather. Why can't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, raindancewx said: What is the point of your posts? I do enjoy weather. Why can't you? I am enjoying the weather I’m out golfing can you comprehend what I said I guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 How do you guys like my analog for this upcoming Dec, minus -NAO (+PNA/La Nina) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Oct 500mb matches were 2011,2014,2015, minus 2009.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Dec '95 analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 more post.. strong 2-3 SD +NAO Nov 15-25.. since 2000, 6 analogs match fits +PNA theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Chuck using 95/96 as an analog. Is there an asteroid coming I don’t know about??? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chuck using 95/96 as an analog. Is there an asteroid coming I don’t know about??? I don’t get it either. I follow his posts, but I’m seeing mixed messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The two -PNA's that we have had since April have been secondary(bigger main pattern drivers at those times). It's been a real pattern shift starting in April. We are opposite last year 500mb anomaly at -0.85. #2 is 0.49 #3 is 0.44 #4 is 0.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Warm water north of Australia, the unusual activity of caterpillars, and a high pitched noise that only I can hear, all combine with the dew point at Coral Harbour and the position of Neptune to prove almost beyond doubt that this winter will be either average or not. Average winters can stress out climate scientists and many others in media who may run out of stories and turn to covering actual news. One spokesperson who wished to remain anonymous told me that "the last average winter, 2016-17, led to severe depression of many in those lines of work, as well as a huge die off of coastal hugging striped crabs which depend on variable weather to survive." What can one expect in an average winter? Average weather. Day after day after day of temperatures not far from normal, as well as drizzly mixtures of sleet and whatever else can (and will) fall at certain elevations. How can you avoid this outcome? Move away from certain elevations, either go higher for snow, or lower for rain. This was the knowledge of the elders of the first people to populate the land, but it has been lost in a haze of phones that drive cars and things that vibrate to open doors. Those are, by the way, changing our weather at an alarming rate. Since the weather only changed around the time of the i-phone, it is reasonable to assume that i-phones are controlling the weather. At least, this is the working assumption of the Institute for Advanced Studies of Stuff You Cannot Understand (IASSYCU) located in Fromage Falls, just outside Canada's capital city, Honkerville. If you would like more information, please contact Gerard E. Neverin at IASSYCU or phone anyone at random and ask them what they think. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Are you not entertained? Anyway what I really expect is a fairly normal winter for your region with perhaps one good wintry spell and a brief snow covering from one big storm, if you're thinking 2015-16 analogue, sort of like that only I don't think this December will be anywhere near as warm as Dec 2015, in fact it could be where the wintry spell happens. A better analogue might be 1963-64. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: .... A better analogue might be 1963-64. What?! You mean the winter with 51.8" of snow at BWI? Strangely though; if NOAA data is to be believed, the same winter had 33.6" at DCA. Significant difference, even for DCA. Anyway, I don't see 63-64 working out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 How about a similar temperature profile with less snow? Something like -2, +2, +1 for the three months. Here's something interesting too, this November in western Europe resembles Nov 2009 to some extent. Later Greenland blocking potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 And just like that all the talk of GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter stopped lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 @40/70 Benchmark Looking forward to your winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: And just like that all the talk of GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter stopped lol the bigger story here is the strength of the La Niña. There is still quite a bit of spread on the models about how strong the Nina will get, and it looks like the more aggressive models have the right idea looking at this. People who were talking about the possibility of a +PDO likely anticipated that the Nina would be weak, but that beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean is anything but weak. The Nina is already stronger than last years Nina at this stage and has intensified over the past couple months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Fortunately, a +NAO Nov 15-25 correlates with a +PNA Dec and Winter, vs being a progression toward a warm solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 hours ago, George001 said: the bigger story here is the strength of the La Niña. There is still quite a bit of spread on the models about how strong the Nina will get, and it looks like the more aggressive models have the right idea looking at this. People who were talking about the possibility of a +PDO likely anticipated that the Nina would be weak, but that beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean is anything but weak. The Nina is already stronger than last years Nina at this stage and has intensified over the past couple months. Exactly. The other area's in the PAC are not " out of hand" so to speak. The GOA has cooled but, you still have a large warmer area just south of there and the small cooler area off the west coast , is just that, small. The Nina area is expansive. Hopefully we get some huge volcanic eruptions in the GOA . Wouldn't snowman19 just love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just started reading it... but @40/70 Benchmark winter forecast is out. I know it may be more centric to SNE... but always an excellent read and you will always learn something in his outlooks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I will be so happy when this nina gets the heck out of here. Three long years of the same dang movie. Yeah we don't know if the modoki will be affected by the volcano or not, but shoot at least it'll be something different (in a good way, hopefully) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 FWIW: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Good! Especially western Europe with the current events happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 +NAO.. why I think this Winter will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: +NAO.. why I think this Winter will be good How does a +nao help us here? This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, Terpeast said: How does a +nao help us here? This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 February 2015 comes to mind with the poleward EPO Ridge and a + NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: How does a +nao help us here? This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south Best if you don’t overthink this 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15) Chances are with that pattern any storm that comes along will pass very close by and will drag up the warm air from the south and this pattern screams cold rains and temps in the 40's unless the entire pattern propagates east off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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