Winter 2022-23

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

These two analogs have a snowier Feb. 

I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat. 

Same here. Great Winter snow wise here. 

[Daniel Boone]

78-79 as a whole was cold nationwide. Think Florida and Maine were the only exception as they were avg to slightly above.

        

[snowman19]

Here is the new Euro seasonal: 

 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is the new Euro seasonal: 

 

Oh good, the southern alps are looking to be wet.  Thanks for that important Intel.  

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Oh good, the southern alps are looking to be wet.  Thanks for that important Intel.  

Do you know how to read that map?

[aldie 22]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is the new Euro seasonal: 

 

So he states it himself a 180 spin yet still feels comfortable saying Jan/Feb will probably be something. Keep searching for tweets to fit your mo dude the last one you posted with two dates sorta didn't fit your narative. I have no doubt you will keep trying though...if you're anything you are consistent. 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Do you know how to read that map?

I admit I don't know what a 180 percent spin is.  Can you enlighten me?

[George001]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

So he states it himself a 180 spin yet still feels comfortable saying Jan/Feb will probably be something. Keep searching for tweets to fit your mo dude the last one you posted with two dates sorta didn't fit your narative. I have no doubt you will keep trying though...if you're anything you are consistent. 

In the New England forum this guy tried to argue that the model looked ugly for Jan and Feb, yet if you actually look at monthly NAO data it only looks ugly for Feb. He legit tried to punt an entire extra month in the heart of winter and was hoping nobody would notice. If you want to make an argument for a mild winter that’s fine, and there are legitimate factors to point to (such as the Siberian snowcover, low ACE, ect). However, this guy straight up has no idea how to analyze an H5 map. Theres nothing wrong with that in itself, but you should pretend that you understand something when you don’t. I only understand how to analyze H5 maps at a very basic level myself and even I can see that his analysis is way off.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

In the New England forum this guy tried to argue that the model looked ugly for Jan and Feb, yet if you actually look at monthly NAO data it only looks ugly for Feb. He legit tried to punt an entire extra month in the heart of winter and was hoping nobody would notice. If you want to make an argument for a mild winter that’s fine, and there are legitimate factors to point to (such as the Siberian snowcover, low ACE, ect). However, this guy straight up has no idea how to analyze an H5 map. Theres nothing wrong with that in itself, but you should pretend that you understand something when you don’t. I only understand how to analyze H5 maps at a very basic level myself and even I can see that his analysis is way off.

He doesn't do analysis. He perpetually parrots Twitter randos who post stuff that aligns with his narrative.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

He doesn't do analysis. He perpetually parrots Twitter randos who post stuff that aligns with his narrative.

There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

This is why you are post limited. It's a seasonal mean ffs. Just stop.

[CAPE]

Can we at least keep this dude in his own sub? He contributes nothing substantive, so no reason for him to come here and constantly shit up the place.

[SnowenOutThere]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

Wanna bet that everywhere on the east coast is absolutely done?

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wanna bet that everywhere on the east coast is absolutely done?

Remember last December? The 'shades down' pattern? No way out! Except 2 weeks later..

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

Those are pretty strong words and not based in any kind of reality. 

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Can we at least keep this dude in his own sub? He contributes nothing substantive, so no reason for him to come here and constantly shit up the place.

I agree with you but since he is post limited and it’s only a couple posts a day, maybe we should just ignore him and carry on as if he isn’t there. The additional posts responding to him are what actually clogs up the thread.  I’ve been guilty of this too but I’m done engaging. 

[WxUSAF]

Fantastic thread from @griteater this morning about 3 dominant Niña patterns and where this winter may fall in that mix. Spoiler alert, probably not in the least conducive pattern for mid-Atlantic snowfall.

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with you but since he is post limited and it’s only a couple posts a day, maybe we should just ignore him and carry on as if he isn’t there. The additional posts responding to him are what actually clogs up the thread.  I’ve been guilty of this too but I’m done engaging. 

Good point. So far he has really only been active in this thread, which will quickly die as we get into actual winter(soon). If he starts crapping up the more pertinent discussion/storm threads with his shtick, well..

[IronTy]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

You're saying it's over?

[wkd]

Not my sub but I lurk on this and the sne site a lot. Both are great although my sub (Philly) has fewer wienie posts and is very civilized.  That being said, all the discussion on analogue winters and the hope for snowy winters doesn't  take into account that one huge snowstorm covering the whole eastern seaboard, no matter how much it goes against previous winter outlooks, will make that winter memorable.  I am always hoping for that storm every winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, wkd said:

Not my sub but I lurk on this and the sne site a lot. Both are great although my sub (Philly) has fewer wienie posts and is very civilized.  That being said, all the discussion on analogue winters and the hope for snowy winters doesn't  take into account that one huge snowstorm covering the whole eastern seaboard, no matter how much it goes against previous winter outlooks, will make that winter memorable.  I am always hoping for that storm every winter.

Me too. Would just love to have a nice 14 to 17 period near Christmas where we get climo snow and cold. 

[raindancewx]

I have some research on what the most active Novembers in the Atlantic correlate to later in the season. But have to see if the system shown on the models blows up as hits Florida as I suspect it will.

I was expecting about 10 ACE for November, but we'll probably get to 15-20, since we're near 6-7 so far I believe. Over 25 in November is vanishingly rare, so I do think this little burst of activity is the end of it.

I'm a bit jealous of the eastern warmth - we haven't been in the mid/upper 70s here in close to three weeks already. Have already had to clean off snow on my car twice. Not a fan of dewpoints in the 60s though.

 

[thunderbolt]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I have some research on what the most active Novembers in the Atlantic correlate to later in the season. But have to see if the system shown on the models blows up as hits Florida as I suspect it will.

I was expecting about 10 ACE for November, but we'll probably get to 15-20, since we're near 6-7 so far I believe. Over 25 in November is vanishingly rare, so I do think this little burst of activity is the end of it.

I'm a bit jealous of the eastern warmth - we haven't been in the mid/upper 70s here in close to three weeks already. Have already had to clean off snow on my car twice. Not a fan of dewpoints in the 60s though.

 

I guess you reached your total in Albuquerque Already

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Fantastic thread from @griteater this morning about 3 dominant Niña patterns and where this winter may fall in that mix. Spoiler alert, probably not in the least conducive pattern for mid-Atlantic snowfall.

 

He is awesome. I use his stuff alot in my work.

[psuhoffman]

On 11/6/2022 at 7:34 AM, WxUSAF said:

Fantastic thread from @griteater this morning about 3 dominant Niña patterns and where this winter may fall in that mix. Spoiler alert, probably not in the least conducive pattern for mid-Atlantic snowfall.

 

Excellent thread...unfortunately it doesn't matter as much for our area wrt snowfall.  It does matter a lot wrt expected temps.  Actually, if you take out 1996 and 2014 (not sure why 2014 is even in the cohort) there isn't that much difference in snowfall means and probabilities between the 3 cohorts for the DC area.  

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Excellent thread...unfortunately it doesn't matter as much for our area wrt snowfall.  It does matter a lot wrt expected temps.  Actually, if you take out 1996 and 2014 (not sure why 2014 is even in the cohort) there isn't that much difference in snowfall means and probabilities between the 3 cohorts for the DC area.  

Agree. In the same respect, if you take out 1949-50 alone the outcome is somewhat different as it was so strongly above average. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Agree. In the same respect, if you take out 1949-50 alone the outcome is somewhat different as it was so strongly above average. 

No matter how you slice up the data we’re very likely to end up below avg snow. However…highly likely is not definitely, there are some flukes. And below avg isn’t no snow at all.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No matter how you slice up the data we’re very likely to end up below avg snow. However…highly likely is not definitely, there are some flukes. And below avg isn’t no snow at all.  

Yeah, I agree. Too many Driver's going against the MA . The hope imo lies in the NAO( no brainer there) and above average PV disruptions. However, the rising QBO really hurts the possibility of any dominant, sustainable -NAO imo. Flukes and Miracles do happen. 

[raindancewx]

22 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

I guess you reached your total in Albuquerque Already

It's not, but are you going to cry if I've already doubled your total for the year? I mean, you're seeing record heat and late season tropical activity. You can make the case you guys haven't even entered Fall yet, it's more of a September pattern. If I saw a path to decent snows for the area, I'd mention it. Last year at this time I pointed out that 150+ ACE seasons are often (50/50) good for your area, and then DC got 13 inches of snow - near average. So it's not like I'm incapable of seeing good outcomes for you, I know that's hard to understand, but there are actual long-range indicators that work for snow in various areas of the US. You're just too lazy to bother investigating any of them.

[thunderbolt]

56 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It's not, but are you going to cry if I've already doubled your total for the year? I mean, you're seeing record heat and late season tropical activity. You can make the case you guys haven't even entered Fall yet, it's more of a September pattern. If I saw a path to decent snows for the area, I'd mention it. Last year at this time I pointed out that 150+ ACE seasons are often (50/50) good for your area, and then DC got 13 inches of snow - near average. So it's not like I'm incapable of seeing good outcomes for you, I know that's hard to understand, but there are actual long-range indicators that work for snow in various areas of the US. You're just too lazy to bother investigating any of them.

It’s OK I’m sure if there were cities on the East Coast at 5000 feet altitude be a lot different story but oh well it is what it is I’m enjoying the warm weather out golfing and you enjoy your Dustings