IronTy Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lock it in, Twitter says 2009-2010 here we come. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 We are about to say goodbye to the warmer GOA and NA west coast SSTs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 You guys are often (rightly) skeptical of the stuff I post with ACE, so I wanted to give an example of how it is supposed to work when you have a close match for timing and intensity tendencies: ACE: June / Jul / Aug / Sept / Oct / Nov 1988: 0 / 0 / 2 / 72 / 24 / 5 2022: 1 / 2 / 0 / 76 / 5 / ? Unlikely to hold as a match into November, but I do think a lot of similar looks to 1988 will show with different timing occasionally. I had it as a C tier analog for the winter. The main reason it should break is the MJO died in Nov 1988, but it will likely remain active this November. But for now, both late Oct 1988 and late Oct 2022 have the MJO fairly active in 6/7. October 1988 October 2022 (so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Another Twitter myth debunked, “-EPO = cold in the east”…..nah, not really: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Our coldest weather typically occurs with an -EPO. Which I’m sure you know and are just trolling. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 It looks like there are some wheels in motion to lead to a pattern change later on in November... mainly the development of an +EAMT, a flip to +AAM, and hints of Scandinavian ridging. First off, the +EAMT: There is pretty good model agreement on anomalously strong HP moving over Mongolia and the rest of east Asia, which helps lead to a +EAMT. +EAMT events often lead to an extension of the Pacific jet and subsequent poleward ridging around Alaska. This is bolstered by the shift to +AAM in the tropics, which often builds poleward and encourages blocking a few weeks down the line... Scandinavian ridging is also beginning to show up on both the GEFS and EPS in the extended range. This can both help to disrupt the SPV, which is a possibility, but this shouldn't impact the pattern too much unless it couples with the troposphere. Also, notice the beginnings of an Aleutian low beginning to form - this is a result of the Pacific jet extension after the +EAMT begins to form. However, what's more important is that ridging in this area tends to retrograde towards Greenland like so: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/7/jcli-d-19-0447.1.xml So, although the pattern to open the month will be very warm and quiet (enjoy the great weather!), I expect a flip to colder and more active weather around Thanksgiving once all of these pattern drivers really take shape, mainly with the Pacific jet extension around two weeks from now. The Scandinavian ridging often takes longer to retrograde. We want to see these signals move forward in time. The analogs that some have proposed for this winter also featured blocking early on (2000-01, 2020-21, 2010-11), so it's nice to see some pattern drivers support it! We shall see. 10 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 16 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Our coldest weather typically occurs with an -EPO. Which I’m sure you know and are just trolling. My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 6/15/2022 at 9:32 PM, raindancewx said: It's very early, but compared to last year I'd wager - - I do think where I am is favored for a cool winter believe it or not. It's unlikely we'll match the coldness of the 2021-22 La Nina. Any warm up in the tropical Pacific y/y favors cold in the Southwest. It won't be wet though. There is a window in the years with matching temperature and precipitation data nationally that consistently shows a wet period in the West in Oct-Dec though. Your move, "Dec 2000 / Dec 2010" crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 @40/70 BenchmarkAny idea how Siberian/Eurasian snowcover will end up for October? The Canadian snowcover buildup doesn’t look that impressive for the 1st day of November: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: @40/70 BenchmarkAny idea how Siberian/Eurasian snowcover will end up for October? The Canadian snowcover buildup doesn’t look that impressive for the 1st day of November: I know SAI is pretty low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know SAI is pretty low... The final calculations won’t be done for a few more days, but I just read on Twitter that it’s probably going to be very low 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 On 10/29/2022 at 9:02 AM, snowman19 said: My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case There are some people that think the Earth is flat. We don't need posts pandering to them either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: First 10 days of the month are a total torch, but ensembles are in agreement for now that it flips to a BN pattern after mid-month. If we go cold to end the month, then we likely have through the New Year to maximize our potential. If we figure that patterns shift every 45 days or so, then we could realistically expect to go mild for most of January and into February, with a shot at something near the end of the winter. It would suck to lose prime climo, but there's no use worrying about it. If...IF...we can somehow cash in early in the season then getting anything of note the rest of the winter would be relative gravy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 21 hours ago, snowman19 said: FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb As you know, all LR Models are heavily weighted ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Is it gon' snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Fox5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 20 hours ago, adelphi_sky said: Is it gon' snow? not today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 hours ago, yoda said: Fox5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia They clearly don't understand that the beaches get more snow than the corridor in a Nina. Bust. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: They clearly don't understand that the beaches get more snow than the corridor in a Nina. Bust. Yup, time for SoMD to feast again while listening to the desperate wails of DC folk between lectures about "climo". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 3 hours ago, IronTy said: Yup, time for SoMD to feast again while listening to the desperate wails of DC folk between lectures about "climo". Yeah I mean SoMD have been makin' out like fat rats the last 7 years! And man I'm exhausted from having 5 ninas in 7 years...the results have been like groundhog day, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Meanwhile, out at the other homestead, a lovely vista and an overnight low of 12 degrees. (and it looks like a pretty big storm might be coming next week) Next best thing to being there is full-screening the video and pretending I'm looking out the window. I've finally figured out how to make DC winters bearable! 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I mean SoMD have been makin' out like fat rats the last 7 years! And man I'm exhausted from having 5 ninas in 7 years...the results have been like groundhog day, lol I wouldn't say so. We sort of got shafted in the 2016 blizzard, but we did get one decent snowfall in 2018...then basically nothing til last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, jacindc said: Meanwhile, out at the other homestead, a lovely vista and an overnight low of 12 degrees. (and it looks like a pretty big storm might be coming next week) Next best thing to being there is full-screening the video and pretending I'm looking out the window. I've finally figured out how to make DC winters bearable! Congrats, Wyoming? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 53 minutes ago, snowman19 said: These two analogs have a snowier Feb. I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: These two analogs have a snowier Feb. I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat. I'd prefer 78-79 of the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: I'd prefer 78-79 of the two. So would I, but didn’t want to raise my own expectations 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 6 hours ago, mattie g said: Congrats, Wyoming? I think it’s the northwest. Washington state, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 You all should come visit. It's been a lovely Fall so far. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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