SnowenOutThere Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Steve25 said: To be honest, I'm kind of at peace with this stretch because I was lucky enough to experience one of the most unbelievable winters in terms of snow of all time around here in 09/10. Also, three consecutive very solid winters from 13/14 to 15/16. Felt due for an extended stretch of sub-par. What comes around goes around. Great for you, now think about someone like me who’s too young for to have any real significant snow memories before 2016 and got sick during the 2016 blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Still coming to peace with it is better than complaining about it, just irritates me when people get upset about our recent bad stretch when they were around for the good winters before it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Great for you, now think about someone like me who’s too young for to have any real significant snow memories before 2016 and got sick during the 2016 blizzard. You’re young. We don’t feel bad for you. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 59 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Great for you, now think about someone like me who’s too young for to have any real significant snow memories before 2016 and got sick during the 2016 blizzard. Dude, unless I got ebola or something no sickness is gonna keep me from hiking around in a true blizzard. Also, I'll trade you your young joints and tendons for my 2016 blizzard experience lol. You'll get your chance, just gotta bide your time. Too bad you missed 09-10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Dude, unless I got ebola or something no sickness is gonna keep me from hiking around in a true blizzard. Also, I'll trade you your young joints and tendons for my 2016 blizzard experience lol. You'll get your chance, just gotta bide your time. Too bad you missed 09-10. 100%. I had a legit case of the flu during the 16 blizzard and still when out every few hours just to feel the fury. Biggest snow I have ever witnessed but felt like arse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 On 10/22/2022 at 7:38 PM, poolz1 said: 100%. I had a legit case of the flu during the 16 blizzard and still when out every few hours just to feel the fury. Biggest snow I have ever witnessed but felt like arse. 2016 was an awesome experience. Had to go into work that morning and I will say I'd never driven with that much snow on the roads. Hard to tell where the sides of the road were I work for a grocery retail chain and of course they wanted us to go in to check on the store. Was just myself and a couple of office assistants who made it in. They lived behind the store. My drive was from Smithsburg to Hagerstown. We were open for about 3 hours and did 60$ in sales lol. Had a conf. Call at 10am with our regional Director. He said to close up and get home safely. So weird driving with no one else on the road. I did not see a another vehicle on the roads that day on the drive home. Snow plow drivers had given up and were hanging out at the Ac&t. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Well you know he wants it to, but his 'opinions' will depend on what the hand picked twitter dweebs are saying at that point. Doo dah doo dah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 hours ago, poolz1 said: 100%. I had a legit case of the flu during the 16 blizzard and still when out every few hours just to feel the fury. Biggest snow I have ever witnessed but felt like arse. Lol I had C. Diff once and 48hrs after I left the ER I was climbing Mt. Shuksan. 2016 was sort of a let down in SoMD. We got about a foot of snow, which is great of course, but that was less than half of what we got in December 2009. That's the benchmark storm for SoMD. DC made out a lot better in '16. We actually got quite a bit more snow last winter for the storm in early January than we did in 2016. Difference of course being there was zero wind during the snow last year vs 2016. Ah well, were overdue for a serious noreaster, hopefully this year it happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 12 hours ago, snowman19 said: Doo dah doo dah Change up your shtick a little there's different ways to tell the same story over and over 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Missed the blizzard of 2016 was temporarily living in Denver co. had about 6" around the same time over there but nothing like the 2'+ in northern va 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/19/2022 at 2:37 PM, Eskimo Joe said: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19: My observation of Siberian snow cover over the past ten years is that it really doesn't mean shit down here. Looking at that graph (hard to read as it is), snow cover isn't far behind where it was in October 2009. We all know how that turned out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19: It’s hard to believe that anyone still puts any stock in this “pseudo index”. Of course, there were a lot of people who put stock in Lehman Brothers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: That has nothing to do with guidance suggesting a neg NAO for December...you can have a neg NAO that isn't tied to a stratospheric cataclysm, you know... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 hours ago, IronTy said: My observation of Siberian snow cover over the past ten years is that it really doesn't mean shit down here. Looking at that graph (hard to read as it is), snow cover isn't far behind where it was in October 2009. We all know how that turned out. It's going to be pretty favorable this last week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Interesting seeing the MJO freeze around 6/7 on the RMM method. It's right in the zone where the ~31C water goes to ~28C, like 87F to 80F roughly. My assumption for winter is that the spot will continue to see slow MJO progression through winter. For reference 6/7 is generally favorable for Western US cold if the thunderstorms enhance/get stuck there a lot. October for both US temps/precip has behaved like a pretty canonical MJO phase five month. 6/7 aren't that cold in the West in December - but I do think we'll likely get to 8-1 or start in 5 which are colder. The timing is generally MJO +45 days = same MJO as now. So early December (6/7) warm, then maybe 8/1 later - that would tie in well with my low-ACE idea where mid-Dec to mid-Jan is colder in the SW US in lower ACE years. 6/7 January is pretty cold Utah/Nevada with cold shifting SW to NW 6/7 February is pretty cold West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: Interesting seeing the MJO freeze around 6/7 on the RMM method. It's right in the zone where the ~31C water goes to ~28C, like 87F to 80F roughly. My assumption for winter is that the spot will continue to see slow MJO progression through winter. For reference 6/7 is generally favorable for Western US cold if the thunderstorms enhance/get stuck there a lot. October for both US temps/precip has behaved like a pretty canonical MJO phase five month. 6/7 aren't that cold in the West in December - but I do think we'll likely get to 8-1 or start in 5 which are colder. The timing is generally MJO +45 days = same MJO as now. So early December (6/7) warm, then maybe 8/1 later - that would tie in well with my low-ACE idea where mid-Dec to mid-Jan is colder in the SW US in lower ACE years. 6/7 January is pretty cold Utah/Nevada with cold shifting SW to NW 6/7 February is pretty cold West If I'm not mistaken, someone on the boards took the time to break it down with phases and the differences when formidable blocking was present awhile back. Of course, amplitude had an effect too. As one would expect, blocking did alter the canonical MJO Phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: If I'm not mistaken, someone on the boards took the time to break it down with phases and the differences when formidable blocking was present awhile back. Of course, amplitude had an effect too. As one would expect, blocking did alter the canonical MJO Phase. Of all the indexes I find the MJO the most exhausting to try and follow *waits for a joke* I mean I have a fainr understanding of it...but if it's during the winter and we spend more than a post or two discussing it...It usually means we ain't in a good spot, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Of all the indexes I find the MJO the most exhausting to try and follow *waits for a joke* I mean I have a fainr understanding of it...but if it's during the winter and we spend more than a post or two discussing it...It usually means we ain't in a good spot, lol At high amp it can be a very dominant driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Pretty big misread from NWS late last week as to this entire week. Too high on temps and I think we will see more misreads as we move along . This is not going to be what many think a Nina season should produce for the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 3:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's going to be pretty favorable this last week of October. 2009 analogs have shown up in varied ways since July. Does not mean it will be Snowmaggedon but Does mean it will Not be a warm and minimal snow winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 2009 analogs have shown up in varied ways since July. Does not mean it will be Snowmaggedon but Does mean it will Not be a warm and minimal snow winter. Agree on somewhere in between, which admittedly isn't saying much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Helpful link if you guys want MJO composites depending on time of year: MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork Finding analogs: MJO (jma.go.jp) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Pretty big misread from NWS late last week as to this entire week. Too high on temps and I think we will see more misreads as we move along . The low temps have been mild though. We just aren't seeing much in the way of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree on somewhere in between, which admittedly isn't saying much. It’s not saying much but is saying something versus nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now