Winter 2022-23

[psuhoffman]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:05 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Previous years have absolutely nothing to do with a year that hasn’t happened yet. Gather enough data and everything will eventually happen. 
 

And one other contribution from me this afternoon is this isn’t the DC/Balt sub forum. It’s the mid Atlantic sub forum. Thanks and continue with the regularly scheduled programming.

That’s where 90% live so of course that’s where most of the discussion will focus. I even center my posts towards the population centers even though I don’t live there because I want discussion and most in here don’t care about my micro climate. It’s nothing personal against us we’re just outnumbered by a lot in here. 

[Jebman]

DC Region is overdue for a frigid, snowy, jebwalk-packed winter. You're gonna get it this winter.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Jebman said:

DC Region is overdue for a frigid, snowy, jebwalk-packed winter. You're gonna get it this winter.

maybe next winter. like actually haha good shot at a central-based Nino

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

maybe next winter. like actually haha good shot at a central-based Nino

A Nino won’t bring a frigid winter

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A Nino won’t bring a frigid winter

A moderate modoki can. 2003 and 2015 being recent examples.  A strong Nino or east based one the warmth overwhelms the pattern. 

[brooklynwx99]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A moderate modoki can. 2003 and 2015 being recent examples.  A strong Nino or east based one the warmth overwhelms the pattern. 

doesn't even need to be moderate! here's a composite of all central based Ninos, both weak and moderate... about as good as it gets from NYC southward

the Februaries are basically weenie maps. even without Feb 2010 it's still a highly conducive pattern for cold and snow

so, if we get that Modoki next winter, which I'm fairly confident of given general ENSO progression after multi-year Ninas as well as subsurface SSTs, it should be a big one

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

doesn't even need to be moderate! here's a composite of all central based Ninos, both weak and moderate... about as good as it gets from NYC southward

the Februaries are basically weenie maps. even without Feb 2010 it's still a highly conducive pattern for cold and snow

so, if we get that Modoki next winter, which I'm fairly confident of given general ENSO progression after multi-year Ninas as well as subsurface SSTs, it should be a big one

They all looked pretty good at h5 but the moderate ones were better here.  The weak ones tended to have less STJ and more miller b v miller a storms. I’d still take a weak Nino but moderates are definitely better here. 

1987, 2003, and 2010 are the most recent examples of moderate modoki. All were blockbusters here. 
 

2005, 2015 and 2019 are examples of what can happen with a weak Nino. I’d certainly take any of those over a Nina but they weren’t great here and 2 of them hit NYC north harder with a lot of miller b storms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

doesn't even need to be moderate! here's a composite of all central based Ninos, both weak and moderate... about as good as it gets from NYC southward

the Februaries are basically weenie maps. even without Feb 2010 it's still a highly conducive pattern for cold and snow

so, if we get that Modoki next winter, which I'm fairly confident of given general ENSO progression after multi-year Ninas as well as subsurface SSTs, it should be a big one

Moderate are better south of NYC......less of a STJ and more N stream with weak ones.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

They all looked pretty good at h5 but the moderate ones were better here.  The weak ones tended to have less STJ and more miller b v miller a storms. I’d still take a weak Nino but moderates are definitely better here. 

1987, 2003, and 2010 are the most recent examples of moderate modoki. All were blockbusters here. 
 

2005, 2015 and 2019 are examples of what can happen with a weak Nino. I’d certainly take any of those over a Nina but they weren’t great here and 2 of them hit NYC north harder with a lot of miller b storms. 

2019 was an odd one...storm track was waaaaaay north...almost more like a la nina. It even sucked here.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Awwww...you should have waited for snowman19 to post this.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

 

Awwww...you should have waited for snowman19 to post this.

Isn’t that the same model that showed us going into an El Niño by this time last year and grossly underestimated the current La Niña? Models rush things big time and since it’s standing alone without any other support right now…but anyhow, late November/early December would be a normal peak time for this Niña, so what exactly does that prove? This will be yet another La Niña winter in the series of 3….

[snowman19]

This is the furthest west the West Pacific Warm Pool has been since 2011. This will definitely have an effect on the tropical convective forcing this winter: 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[snowman19]

On 10/19/2022 at 3:53 PM, mattie g said:

 

Awwww...you should have waited for snowman19 to post this.

Looks like yet another official La Niña winter. The latest updated plumes don’t have it dissipating to neutral until March/April now, the previous runs rushed it as was expected: 

 

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like yet another official La Niña winter. The latest updated plumes don’t have it dissipating to neutral until March/April now, the previous runs rushed it as was expected: 

 

Man, you'd just love it if strong blocking set up this Nina Winter wouldn't you. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

This la nina is on life support, regardless of how long the SSTs remain below normal. Times, they are a changing....

You guys clean up next year, after a serviceable la nina season this year.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This la nina is on life support, regardless of how long the SSTs remain below normal. Times, they are a changing....

You guys clean up next year, after a serviceable la nina season this year.

 

From your mouth to the snow gods ears.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/10/growing-consensus-current-enso.html

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This la nina is on life support, regardless of how long the SSTs remain below normal. Times, they are a changing....

You guys clean up next year, after a serviceable la nina season this year.

 

I agree next year could be very good. But in my life there have been several seasons where we were counting on a fading Nina to save us and it NEVER has worked out.  I remember this same talk in 2000/01, 2011/12, and 2016/17. All 3 were fading Nina’s, the first two at the end of a multi year cycle but it did us no good. All 3 ended up absolutely horrible god awful snow seasons around here.  Maybe this is the year the “fading Nina” thing finally helps is in any way. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree next year could be very good. But in my life there have been several seasons where we were counting on a fading Nina to save us and it NEVER has worked out.  I remember this same talk in 2000/01, 2011/12, and 2016/17. All 3 were fading Nina’s at the end of a multi year cycle but it did us no good. All 3 ended up absolutely horrible god awful snow seasons around here.  Maybe this is the year the “fading Nina” thing finally helps is in any way. 

Are you sure that wasn't 17/18?

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you sure that wasn't 17/18?

No 2018 wasn’t fading as much as 2017. By February of 2017 the enso was actually neutral.  But typically there is some lag and frankly we just need so much to go right that having such a major influencer being even somewhat hostile for even part of our snow season stacks the deck against us. Our snow climo is simple…every so often (25-30%) the stars align and we get a good snowfall season. The rest of the time something is off and we get what is typical here…some degree of suck. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/17/2022 at 6:54 PM, Jebman said:

DC Region is overdue for a frigid, snowy, jebwalk-packed winter. You're gonna get it this winter.

[snowman19]

On 10/21/2022 at 1:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/10/growing-consensus-current-enso.html

IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess

Alright man--When we get to that week I don't wanna hear any "This nina looks to continue stronger longer!" Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess

For ONI, yes.

[Steve25]

A few BWI facts tidbits going into this winter: 

The December's on average have been the worst snow month since records have been kept. They average about 2.5 inches in that month since official records have been kept. With that said, they are in a particularly bleak stretch. 12 consecutive winters with less than 5 inches of snow. To put that in perspective, they've reached 12 consecutive one other time in history (1990/91 through 2001/02). Never reached 13, so that could happen for the first time ever this winter. Just an added stat, 10 out the past 12 have been 1.6 inches or lower and 6 out of 12 have been less than an inch. Brutal. 

They have also went 6 consecutive winters with 19 inches of snow or less in total. The only time they have went longer was 1970/71 to 1976/77 with 7 consecutive. They can tie that this winter. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

A few BWI facts tidbits going into this winter: 

The December's on average have been the worst snow month since records have been kept. They average about 2.5 inches in that month since official records have been kept. With that said, they are in a particularly bleak stretch. 12 consecutive winters with less than 5 inches of snow. To put that in perspective, they've reached 12 consecutive one other time in history (1990/91 through 2001/02). Never reached 13, so that could happen for the first time ever this winter. Just an added stat, 10 out the past 12 have been 1.6 inches or lower and 6 out of 12 have been less than an inch. Brutal. 

They have also went 6 consecutive winters with 19 inches of snow or less in total. The only time they have went longer was 1970/71 to 1976/77 with 7 consecutive. They can tie that this winter. 

 

 

Thanks for summarizing this. Now these days I'm feeling more at peace with what's happened these last 6 years, but this is what I've been tryin' to tell folks about where more people on this forum live (well, half the forum anyway...because DCA has actually fared better!)

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright man--When we get to that week I don't wanna hear any "This nina looks to continue stronger longer!" Lol

Well you know he wants it to, but his 'opinions' will depend on what the hand picked twitter dweebs are saying at that point.

[Steve25]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for summarizing this. Now these days I'm feeling more at peace with what's happened these last 6 years, but this is what I've been tryin' to tell folks about where more people on this forum live (well, half the forum anyway...because DCA has actually fared better!)

To be honest, I'm kind of at peace with this stretch because I was lucky enough to experience one of the most unbelievable winters in terms of snow of all time around here in 09/10. Also, three consecutive very solid winters from 13/14 to 15/16. Felt due for an extended stretch of sub-par. What comes around goes around.